We had .28 of an inch of rain yesterday bringing our total for the month to 2.99 inches and 11.18 for the season. Our high for yesterday was 58° after a morning low of 46°.
We will be entering a more active weather pattern with chances of rain and storms through Sunday morning. Skies will become partly sunny today. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible. It will be warming up with high temperatures in the 70s closing in on 80° along and south of the I94 corridor. Below are the SPC guesses for Friday/Saturday.
SPC Forecast Discussion
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening across lower Michigan, perhaps extending into parts of the Midwest. Severe thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough is forecast to move eastward from the central/northern Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region on Friday. A deep surface low will move from the upper Great Lakes toward the southern part of Hudson Bay, while an attendant cold front will move across parts of the Midwest, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains. Further southwest, a low-amplitude upper-level trough will move toward southwest/central TX by Friday evening. A surface low may develop along the front across southwest OK/northwest TX, with a dryline extending southward across parts of west/central TX. ...Parts of the Great Lakes into the Mid MS Valley... Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the severe potential associated with the cold front from parts of the Great Lakes into the mid MS Valley. Deep-layer shear will be more than sufficient for organized convection. A rather strong and extensive EML will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy by late afternoon along/ahead of the front, but may also tend to suppress convection in the absence of favorable large-scale ascent across the warm sector. There is also some uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day convection potentially spreading eastward out of the upper Midwest. The most favorable area for surface-based development may be across lower MI, in closer proximity to the departing shortwave trough and surface low. A couple of organized cells/clusters will be possible in that area during the late afternoon/evening, with a threat of hail and damaging wind gusts. Reintensification of morning convection, or development along any remnant outflow, also appears most likely to occur over lower MI, if any of those scenarios materialize. Further southwest over parts of IL/IN/MO, surface-based development cannot be ruled out, but appears increasingly unlikely due to strong capping. Elevated convection will likely develop north of the front across this region Friday night, which could pose an isolated hail risk, given the steep midlevel lapse rates and rather strong midlevel flow that will be in place.
NWS Forecast Discussion
...Warmer today... Today will start off with some fog and overcast skies. However, drying in the wake of a departing short wave should erode the clouds by late morning leading to some sun during the afternoon and warmer temperatures. Weak height rises will help temperatures climb into the mid 70s across the cwa. ...Could be a stormy Friday... A well defined short wave over the northern Plains will produce a sfc low over Minnesota tonight. A cold front will trail southwest of the low across the Missouri Valley. The ECMWF/GFS move the low toward James Bay by Friday night. Ahead of the low, a warm front will pass over the cwa tonight. We expect it to move through. However, the HRRR does hint at the possibility of a shower developing near the front around 00z. Once the front moves through, we`ll be solidly in the warm sector and highs on Friday will climb into the 80s. More importantly, we`ll be in a very juicy environment with sfc dewpoints in the 60s and a cold front to the west. Strong instability reflected by MUCAPE around 2500 j/kg and a 50 kt low level jet aimed at the northern cwa may be the focal point for convection Friday afternoon, especially as a wave rides northeast along the front toward northern Lake Michigan. Forecast soundings are mostly unidirectional with height which would suggest that straight line winds would be the main threat. Bulk shear values 35- 40 kts points toward some organizational potential too and thus hail is a concern too. HREF max reflectivity and updraft helicity point toward areas north of M-46 Friday afternoon for the strongest storms, which would also be closer to the track of the wave riding up the front. Models also show a secondary area of stronger low level winds across the I-94 corridor, but upper dynamics aren`t as strong here. However outflows from earlier convection to the north may be a focus for renewed convection later in the afternoon. Both the GFS and ECMWF don`t exactly push the cold front through the cwa Friday night, likely due to the lack of an upper level push. Thus we`ll be looking at showers and thunderstorms through Saturday night as another shortwave rides up the front. Once that passes through, the front should make progress east and high pressure to the west will move in Sunday leading to dry weather through Tuesday.