Warm Today

Yesterday we had .49 inches of rain with a few peeks of the sun.  Our high temperature was 74°.

Morning fog will burn off leaving partly sunny skies. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly east of US-131. Highs in the mid-80s are expected today.

---

U.S.A and Global Events for July 3rd:

1873: A tornado in Hancock County, in far west central Illinois, destroyed several farms. From a distance, witnesses initially thought the tornado was smoke from a fire. A child was killed after being carried 500 yards; 10 other people were injured.

1975: Up to 3 inches of rain caused flash flooding throughout Las Vegas, NV. The main damage occurred to vehicles at Caesars Palace with approximately 700 damaged or destroyed with several cars found miles away. North Las Vegas was hardest hit with $3.5 million in damage. Two people drowned in the flood waters.

2000: There is a certain irony about one of the driest places getting the most significant rainfall, and yet that is what happened at usually rain-sparse Vanguard, Saskatchewan on July 3 when a carwash-like downpour flooded the community of 200 people, some 65 km southeast of Swift Current. As much as 375 mm (14.76”) of rain fell in eight hours, the greatest storm for that duration on the Canadian Prairies and one of the most substantial rainfall intensities ever recorded in Canada.

The spectacular thunderstorm produced more cloud-to-ground lightning strikes than that part of southern Saskatchewan would expect in two years. A year’s amount of rain left crops in the field drowning and rotting, and roads and rail lines underwater. The force of the water crushed cars and farm implements swept away grain bins and soaked large bales. Stranded residents had to be rescued by boat, which rapidly became the carrier of choice on the main street in Vanguard. The flash flood also carried away herds of cattle and drowned dozens of deer and antelope. Some further irony, when millions of liters of contaminated water submerged the water-treatment plant and backed up into homes and businesses, officials had to ship in bottled water from Swift Current.

---

Grand Rapids Forecast

[pdf-embedder url=”https://michigan-weather-center.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/7-3-grr.pdf” title=”7 3 grr”]

---

Forecast Discussion

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023

A much quieter short term than has been the case over the past
number of days. The benign weather is due to ridging both at the
surface and aloft over the Great Lakes that is occurring
downstream of a deep trough moving through the Canadian Prairies.

First order of business is the fog and stratus that is expanding
at this hour. Most observation sites in the forecast area are now
reporting fog with only a couple exceptions. We expect the fog to
reach its widest expanse around daybreak (or near 11Z). The fog
may become dense, but at this point no sites have visibilities at
1/4 mile in our CWA. Winds in the 1000-2000 foot layer may keep
things from becoming widespread dense and our consensus of short
term models guidance would agree.

The HREF shows a few showers forming this afternoon coincident
with the heat of the day. All areas east of the lake breeze front
have a 20-30 percent chance of a shower today. Cannot rule out an
isolated thunderstorm with CAPE values that may rise to near 1,000
j/kg but the HREF would say most activity will remain showers.

A quiet night tonight is expected with clear and calm conditions.
There should be less in the way of fog, but some guidance is
showing fog down towards Mason and Jackson tonight.

Tuesday looks to be a dry day with ridging firmly in control of
the area weather. HREF hints at an isolated shower east of the
lake breeze, but we are carrying a mainly dry forecast.

Highs in the 80s today, approaching 90 on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023

Rain chances will come at the beginning and the end of the long
term. ECMWF and GFS have been very consistent in showing a cold
front moving across the Lower Peninsula Wednesday; that timing
hasn`t changed in several days. The other thing that hasn`t changed
is the moisture pooling ahead of the front. Latest precipitable
water progs continue to show 2 inches along/ahead of the front. Our
current grids show around a quarter inch QPF, but any storms that
develop would no doubt produce much more than that locally.

Good instability exists too with SBCAPE values around 1500 j/kg.
Severe wx threat looks on the low side, however; Bulk shear is on
the order of 20 kts or so. Convective organization looks minimal at
this point.

A seasonably strong high will push the front through by Thursday
afternoon, leading to dry weather through Saturday.

The next chance of rain will arrive Sunday afternoon and continue
through Monday. A trough moving across the Rockies is progd to
develop a lee side low that then tracks across Lower MI Sunday into
Monday. The ECMWF is much quicker with the movement of the low than
the GFS, timing is unclear at this point.

Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs around 90. Once the
front moves through, highs will back off into the lower 80s.