We are now 2/3s of the way through meteorological summer with a lot of 80 plus degree temps and a couple of stretches of 90° stretches thrown in. We have received only 2.33 inches of rain in Otsego this month which is about an inch below normal. We started out with a wet June so we have 6.39 inches thus far this summer.
This has been an unusually persistent warm summer for Southwest Michigan. Many locations in Southwest Michigan are in the top 10 for length of days in a row with highs of 80 degrees or more. Muskegon is in second place with 33 days, behind the 41 days in 1955, as of the 29th. At Grand Rapids, the 34 days, through the 29th puts us in 5th place. With highs forecast to be in the 80s through Saturday, the length is expected to increase.
I am sure we will see plenty more 80s through the month of August into September, however it is likely we will descend into our usual prefall pattern. I am thinking a warm start August then cooling towards the end of the month. Sorry, no snow is forecast or frost for that matter – we still have to wait until October for that to materialize.
Next week we will see our temps in the upper 70s which is something we haven’t seen for a while.
– Most areas stay dry today and Saturday
– Greatest risk for rain Sunday, mainly east of US 131
– Some showers may continue developing Monday into Tuesday
-- Most areas stay dry today and Saturday -- Models are not supporting more than an isolated shower over the next couple days as dry NE flow from the surface to 850 mb is in place. HREF guidance suggests very low probabilities for any location getting measurable rain through Saturday evening. Afternoon lake breeze development could touch off an isolated shower or sprinkle but that would be about it. -- Greatest risk for rain Sunday, mainly east of US 131 WV imagery is identifying the system of interest currently centered over the KS/MO line. This area of low pressure is forecast to slightly deepen as it takes a path from southern IN to north central OH by late Saturday night and into Sunday morning. There seems to be a clustering of solutions now that would favor the greatest rain chances to be east of US 131 beginning late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. The ECMWF, GEM, and UKMET are in agreement on this scenario but the GFS is slower, deeper, and further northwest with this system and as such there would be a deformation band of rain between US-131 and US 127. Our current QPF may be too skewed by the GFS and hence overdone for much of the area. It seems the best chance for a "soaking" type of rainfall would be confined to south central and SE Lower MI, especially metro Detroit. Ensemble analysis for >50% chance of a half inch or more of rain as follows: GEFS - near and east of US 127; CMCE - east and south of a line from Holland to Mt. Pleasant; ECM - southeast of the MI/OH state line. While highest probabilities will likely be confined to south central and SE Lower MI, there are still some ensemble members (especially CMCE) that provide heavier rain for much of central and SW Lower MI on the order of one inch or more. While this is a less likely scenario, it is a non-zero risk. - Some showers may continue developing Monday into Tuesday Areas that miss out on rain Sunday will have a second chance Monday. There is good model agreement that a 500 mb trough and significant thermal gradient at 850 mb will be progressing through Michigan on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move through Lower MI during the day. The ECMWF is suggesting some decent sfc wind convergence during daytime heating which could enhance shower and thunderstorm development across central Lower MI, moving south with time. Some of this activity could linger into Tuesday. A drying trend is foreseen for the midweek period. High temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday will be the coolest we have seen since June 23 to 25.