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Warm Start to the Week

Hope you all enjoyed the extra hour of sleep thanks to the mandate of messing with our biological clocks.  Thankfully most digital clocks reset themselves, the analogs however must be removed from the walls and reset with the hope of getting all the clocks in the house to read the same.  We have a lot of clocks – makes me wonder why we have so many, we are addicted to timekeeping.  My grandparents had one clock in their house, a grandfather clock, and my grandfather had a pocket watch, that was it.  Makes one wonder how anyone kept accurate time.


We have 34° at 6 am this morning with clear skies.  Yesterday our high temp was 56° and the low was 27.5°.  We have had .02 of an inch of rain thus far for the month.

We will maintain warmer than normal temps through most of this week – this may be our last chance to get up the Christmas lights outside as we are forecast to have the temps bottom out at the end of the week.

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This is the three to four-week outlook from the CPC.  This is the first time I have seen this all of this year.  The 6 to 10 and 8 to 14-day outlooks are much the same.  So, as I said, enjoy this week before the temps bottom out and we see some possible early snowfall.

Forecast Discussion

- Dry through Monday Night at least

We will be dry through Monday night at least, with the potential
to be dry through Tuesday night. More on the chance for rain on
Tuesday in the paragraph below. Ridging aloft today and tonight
transitions into zonal flow for Monday and Monday night. Without
the lack up upper support see no chance for precipitation through
Monday night. Deeper moisture holds off until later into Monday
night, so a high confidence that we remain dry through Monday
night. Hard to find much nicer days in November than today and
tomorrow as highs will be up around 60F both days. If you have
yard work to finish up before we head too far into winter, the
next two days will be great for that.

- Small chance for rain on Tuesday

We have a small chance for rain on Tuesday but there is model
disparity here. The GFS is dry and its ensemble members support
this. The ECMWF has some light rain and its ensemble members
support line of thinking. The precipitation with the ECMWF is
associated with a weak mid level wave and surface reflection
riding up a boundary that will be stalled across the area. If the
ECMWF verifies the rain will be light, on the order of a tenth of
an inch or less in most places. At this point its a tough call as
to which model verifies and we have given a nod to the ECMWF with
some low pops (20-30 pct) on Tuesday.

- Deep fall system to our west mid week

The ECMWF has now joined the GFS in showing a deep fall storm
system off to our west in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Last
night the ECMWF had a much weaker low. Now, both models are
showing a 983mb low on Thursday. This is obviously quite deep, but
is something that is in the realm of what can occur this time of
year in the Great Lakes. In fact, all of the biggest fall storms,
weirdly fall in and around Nov 10-11th. This one would be no
different. There has been some hint in the max wind gusts at
places like Ludington of 50+ mph winds during this time frame
which is certainly possible given the depth of the low. So, a
windy and wet system is expected in our area Wednesday and
Thursday. We would see a warm air advection wing of precipitation
on Wednesday, followed by cold front and another round of rain
Wednesday night into Thursday. We look to be dry slotted for a
time Thursday night. The jury is still out on how this all evolves
though as disparity in the operational runs show up Thursday
night. The ECMWF Thursday night has a much weaker low in Iowa
which doesn`t seem reasonable. Bottom line, some impactful weather
with this system, especially in regard to some wind gusts along
the Lake Michigan shore.

- Turning colder with lake effect possible late in the week

We still look to turn colder late in the week behind the fall
storm. That said, the ECWMF has backed off on the cold air
advection due to a weaker and further southwest low. Friday night
there is a 6 degree difference in 850mb temps (-7C vs -1C) near
Muskegon at 850mb. This could be the difference in healthy lake
effect precipitation or not. The lake is around +12C right now, so
if the GFS verifies we are looking at Delta Ts approaching 20C.
Thinking the GFS is likely the way to go here given colder and
lake effect rain/snow would be common behind a deep fall storm
system. Plenty of time to watch how this unfolds in the models
though. Can envision some accumulating lake effect snow in Western
Lower Michigan into next weekend given deep moisture, an upper
trough overhead and plenty of instability (at least in the GFS).
newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

It is a great day! The Lions did not lose today! Incredible!

INDY
INDY

+1 ..InDY

INDY
INDY

Happy birthday Slim Jim its been a long run together since Bills blog days thanks for everything you do on Michaels blog ….InDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

+1

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

HAPPY BIRTHDAY SLIM!! Have a wonderful day!!

Slim

Thank you
Slim

*SS*
*SS*

Happy Birthday Slim!!! Thanks for all sharing all your weather knowledge! Have a great day!

Slim

Thanks
Slim

Slim

New day new time. With an official H/L of 56/31 yesterday at Grand Rapids was one of the kind of rare days that was exactly average. The official overnight low at GRR was 38 but the low here at my house was 33. At this time it is clear and 37 here.
Slim