Hope you all enjoyed the extra hour of sleep thanks to the mandate of messing with our biological clocks. Thankfully most digital clocks reset themselves, the analogs however must be removed from the walls and reset with the hope of getting all the clocks in the house to read the same. We have a lot of clocks – makes me wonder why we have so many, we are addicted to timekeeping. My grandparents had one clock in their house, a grandfather clock, and my grandfather had a pocket watch, that was it. Makes one wonder how anyone kept accurate time.
We have 34° at 6 am this morning with clear skies. Yesterday our high temp was 56° and the low was 27.5°. We have had .02 of an inch of rain thus far for the month.
We will maintain warmer than normal temps through most of this week – this may be our last chance to get up the Christmas lights outside as we are forecast to have the temps bottom out at the end of the week.
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This is the three to four-week outlook from the CPC. This is the first time I have seen this all of this year. The 6 to 10 and 8 to 14-day outlooks are much the same. So, as I said, enjoy this week before the temps bottom out and we see some possible early snowfall.
Forecast Discussion
- Dry through Monday Night at least We will be dry through Monday night at least, with the potential to be dry through Tuesday night. More on the chance for rain on Tuesday in the paragraph below. Ridging aloft today and tonight transitions into zonal flow for Monday and Monday night. Without the lack up upper support see no chance for precipitation through Monday night. Deeper moisture holds off until later into Monday night, so a high confidence that we remain dry through Monday night. Hard to find much nicer days in November than today and tomorrow as highs will be up around 60F both days. If you have yard work to finish up before we head too far into winter, the next two days will be great for that. - Small chance for rain on Tuesday We have a small chance for rain on Tuesday but there is model disparity here. The GFS is dry and its ensemble members support this. The ECMWF has some light rain and its ensemble members support line of thinking. The precipitation with the ECMWF is associated with a weak mid level wave and surface reflection riding up a boundary that will be stalled across the area. If the ECMWF verifies the rain will be light, on the order of a tenth of an inch or less in most places. At this point its a tough call as to which model verifies and we have given a nod to the ECMWF with some low pops (20-30 pct) on Tuesday. - Deep fall system to our west mid week The ECMWF has now joined the GFS in showing a deep fall storm system off to our west in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Last night the ECMWF had a much weaker low. Now, both models are showing a 983mb low on Thursday. This is obviously quite deep, but is something that is in the realm of what can occur this time of year in the Great Lakes. In fact, all of the biggest fall storms, weirdly fall in and around Nov 10-11th. This one would be no different. There has been some hint in the max wind gusts at places like Ludington of 50+ mph winds during this time frame which is certainly possible given the depth of the low. So, a windy and wet system is expected in our area Wednesday and Thursday. We would see a warm air advection wing of precipitation on Wednesday, followed by cold front and another round of rain Wednesday night into Thursday. We look to be dry slotted for a time Thursday night. The jury is still out on how this all evolves though as disparity in the operational runs show up Thursday night. The ECMWF Thursday night has a much weaker low in Iowa which doesn`t seem reasonable. Bottom line, some impactful weather with this system, especially in regard to some wind gusts along the Lake Michigan shore. - Turning colder with lake effect possible late in the week We still look to turn colder late in the week behind the fall storm. That said, the ECWMF has backed off on the cold air advection due to a weaker and further southwest low. Friday night there is a 6 degree difference in 850mb temps (-7C vs -1C) near Muskegon at 850mb. This could be the difference in healthy lake effect precipitation or not. The lake is around +12C right now, so if the GFS verifies we are looking at Delta Ts approaching 20C. Thinking the GFS is likely the way to go here given colder and lake effect rain/snow would be common behind a deep fall storm system. Plenty of time to watch how this unfolds in the models though. Can envision some accumulating lake effect snow in Western Lower Michigan into next weekend given deep moisture, an upper trough overhead and plenty of instability (at least in the GFS).
It is a great day! The Lions did not lose today! Incredible!
+1 ..InDY
Happy birthday Slim Jim its been a long run together since Bills blog days thanks for everything you do on Michaels blog ….InDY
+1
HAPPY BIRTHDAY SLIM!! Have a wonderful day!!
Thank you
Slim
Happy Birthday Slim!!! Thanks for all sharing all your weather knowledge! Have a great day!
Thanks
Slim
New day new time. With an official H/L of 56/31 yesterday at Grand Rapids was one of the kind of rare days that was exactly average. The official overnight low at GRR was 38 but the low here at my house was 33. At this time it is clear and 37 here.
Slim