October vs Winter
While it is still too early to tell how the rest of October 2021 will play out one thing for sure the first half was very warm. So, will a warm October and the warmer waters of the great lakes lead to a snowy winter season this winter? Well, I took a look at each decade of records here at Grand Rapids going back to 1900 and picked out the warmest October and then looked at the following winters total snow fall. And then I looked at the snowiest winter of the decade and seen how warm that October was before that winter.
1900 to 1910 I started this decade a year early as the warmest October was is the current warmest on record of 59.1 unfortunately snow fall records are missing for that winter. The snowiest winter in the 1st decade of the 20th century was the winter of 1903/04 October 1903 the mean at GR was 51.5.
1911 to 1920 the warmest October was in 1920 with a mean of 58.8 that winter seen one of the least snowy at GR with just 35.6” The snowiest was the winter of 1917/18 with 74.9” October 1917 was one of the coldest with a mean of just 42.9°
1921 to 1930 In the 1920’s the warmest October was 56.4 in 1924 the winter of 24/25 has just 40.5” of snow fall. The snowiest winter was in 1929/30 with 95.6” October of 1929 was a cool 49.4.
1931 to 1940 in the 1930’s the warmest October at GR was 56.6 in 1938 the winter of 1938/39 GR reported 65.7” of snow fall. The snowiest winter in the 30’s was the winter of 1935/36 when 76.8” of snow fall was reported at GR October 1935 had a mean of 51.9.
1941 to 1950 the 1940’s the warmest October was in 1947 with a mean of 58.8 that winter GR reported 64.4” of total snow fall. The snowiest winter was the winter of 1941/42 with 69.0” reported. October 1941 had a mean of 51.8
1951 to 1960 the 1950’s the warmest October was 55.8 in 1956 that winter GR had 60.0” of reported snow fall. The snowiest winter was the winter of 1951/52 with 132.0” of snow fall. That is the snowiest official winter snowfall at Grand Rapids. There are unofficial reports that at the downtown office they reported 145.0” that winter. October 1951 the mean temperature at Grand Rapids was 52.5.
1961 to 1970 in the 1960’s the warmest October was 58.8 in 1963 that winter seen 70.4” of snow fall at GRR that was the 1st year that the current airport became the official weather reporting location for GR. The snowiest winter in the 1960’s was the winter of 1964/65 when 101.0” fell October 1964 had a mean of 47.2
1971 to 1980 The warmest October in the 1970’s was 58.3 in 1971 that winter seen 79.8” of snow fall at GRR. The snowiest winter of the 1970’s was 101.0” that fell in the winter of 1970/71 October 1970 the mean was 52.2
1981 to 1990 The warmest October in the 1980’s was 54.2 in 1984 that winter seen 69.6” at GRR. The snowiest winter in the 80’s was the winter of 1989/90 that winter seen 89.8” that October had a mean of 51.1.
1991 to 2000 the warmest October in the 90’s was a rather cool 53.6 in 2000 that winter GR had 98.1” of snow fall. The snowiest winter was 98.4” in the winter of 1996/97 October 1996 had a mean of 52.2.
2001/2010 In the first decade of the 21 century was the 1st one that both the warmest October and the snowiest wither were the same. October 2007 had a mean of 58.1 and that winter there was 107.0” of snow fall.
2011 to 2020 in the last 10 years the warmest October was in 2017 with a mean of 55.2 and 60.1” of snow fell that winter. The snowiest winter was in 2013/14 when 116.0” of snow fell. October 2013 had a mean of 53.1.
Well, I guess you can say that a warm October or at least one of the warmest October’s don’t mean a record snow fall for the next winter season.
Slim
Storm windows in love winterizing our home …INDY
Get ready for very cold nights! I say warm October will lead to a record breaking winter! Bring on the snow!
Lake effect clouds over the state of Michigan everywhere els sunny as fixer would say more crap weather in west Michigan lol naaa…Soon it will be lk effect snow woo wooo …INDY
Thanks Slim! Seems pretty consistent that years with more snow have an October mean of around 51 or 52, and the warmer October’s result in much less snow. One thing with 1961 to 1970 October mean, you have 74.2? I’m guessing that’s supposed to be 54.2? Unless that was a baking hot October.
That should have been 47.2. and the year should have been 1964. Hey you are hired for my proof reader. Thanks for catching that. I updated that and now it has the correct numbers.
Slim
Loving the chill in the air so munch for the red range forecast I mean long range forecast lol…INDY
We have a cool 46 degrees at 7 am. Yesterday’s rainfall was .42 of an inch which brings us to 3.36 inches for the month and 5.52 inches for met fall. Yesterday’s high was 64 and the low was 52.5 degrees. Hard to believe we are halfway through met fall…
With clear skies the temperature is now at 46 here. There was another 0.10″ of rain fall here yesterday.
Slim