We had a high of 81° yesterday with a 73° dewpoint and .05 of an inch of rain fell in the afternoon. Our overnight low was 61°.
Ten miles away in Allegan they had .73 of an inch of rain which shows the frustration of hit-and-miss showers. This could make an interesting drought map come Thursday when the CPC updates it. Of course, we need many inches of rain rather than tenths to overcome the drought in Michigan.
Rain chances will continue through Friday as our moist airmass, thanks to a low-pressure center continues to meander to our south. Most areas from the I96 corridor to the south have a better than 50/50 chance of rain though they will continue to be of the hit or miss, popup variety. The SPC has us in the general storm outlook through Friday though we have no expectation of severe weather – having said that perhaps we will have an outbreak due to the opposite of expectations seems to hold true with weather forecasts 😳
- Areas of dense fog early today Patchy areas of dense fog continued at 3 am this morning. The dense fog is persistent along the lake shore, but not nearly so persistent inland. Our night time fog IR image loop shows the most persistent low clouds and fog is currently over central and eastern lower Michigan. Surface observations show the dense fog comes and goes even in those areas. The hi-res model forecast for dense fog suggest we will not have persistent dense fog expect near the lake shore this morning. Some of that may be related to areas of mid clouds under the mid level deformation zone are not allowing enough surface cooling. In any event at this point I do not see a need for an inland dense fog advisory. - Scattered locally heavy convection most of this week As we have been writing about for several days now, we have a largely stalled upper low near us. The air over us is very moist to a deep layer, there is mid-level instability and all of this persists into Thursday. Model sounding show the typical heavy rain signature of narrow but deep cape, near saturated sounding to at least 500 mb and the MBE vector speeds are mostly under 5 knots into Friday afternoon. So afternoon heating convection will not be moving all that fast but will have a lot of water to use of precipitation efficiency. One other issue to note through, as I have been writing recently, we do have a REX BLOCK developing north of the upper low (which is largely south of Michigan). Over time, a northern stream shortwave pushes all of this to the southwest. That allows some dry air to feed into northeast sections later in the period. This may push the convection a little farther south each day through Thursday. By Friday a northern stream shortwave tops the upper ridge and slides southeast. This will enhance pushing the cooler and drier Canadian air into our area from the northeast. Even so we have a decent deformation zone over us by then and still have deep moistures so no reason for convection to stop then. - Warming this weekend only to cool early next week Over the weekend that strong Pacific system I have been writing about for several days pushes a shortwave ridge into our area Saturday. That will warm things up. However there is decent dynamic forcing so convection will continue even so. Finally that system pushes through but if the ECMWF is correct we end up with a closed upper low over Michigan on Monday with cooler air but still convective instability. Maybe by Tuesday this will push off the east and we will finally clear. It will be cooler the beginning of next week and if the ECMWF is correct it will be much cooler.