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Warm & Dry Once Again

We have gone seven straight days without rain and our total for the month remains stuck at 1.27 inches.  We have one more dry day before the high-pressure ridge moves on and some rain moves in.  Yesterday’s high was 86° and the low was 55°.


WPC day two forecast


NWS Forecast

Today
Sunny, with a high near 84. Light southeast wind.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. East-southeast wind 3 to 5 mph.
Thursday
A chance of showers then showers likely, and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 76. Southeast wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%—new rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 65. South southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. The chance of precipitation is 90%—new rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Friday
Showers are likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 64. The chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday
There is a chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. The chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2 am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Sunday
A chance of showers between 8 am and 2 pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Sunday Night
A chance of thunderstorms before 8 pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 79.

Weather History

1987: A total of 3.61 inches of rain falls at Grand Rapids, making this the second wettest August day on record and contributing to a record monthly total of 8.46 inches.

1988: A tornado struck East Lansing and then proceeded southeast, leaving an intermittent damage path south of Okemos to Gregory. A man camping near Stockbridge was killed when a tree fell on him.

1995: Lightning struck and killed a 33-year-old man walking through his campsite in Coldbrook Park in Kalamazoo County.

On August 14, 1964, the overnight temperature dropped to 41 degrees in Flint, which was the record-low temperature for the day. Curiously enough, the very next year, in 1965, the daytime temperature rose to 97 degrees, setting the record high temperature for this day.


Forecast Discussion

- One more sunny day, then showers/storms Thursday

Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over Lower Michigan
and an upper ridge nosing in from the west. This combination is
producing clear skies across the region and means a generally
sunny and mild day for the cwa. We`ll see highs in the mid 80s
today along with humid conditions due to dewpoints in the lower to
mid 60s.

Farther west, low pressure was beginning to develop over the
northern Plains and this low will move east tonight to the upper
MS Valley. Clouds will increase tonight as the low moves closer to
the Great Lakes. A series of short waves will help to carve out an
upper trough over the upper MS Valley Thursday and support the
surface low as it moves through Wisconsin.

Latest HRRR, shows some light rain spreading over the cwa
beginning Thursday morning. Very little in the way of instability
means that Thursday`s precipitation will mainly be rain. However,
in the far southwest corner of the cwa after 20z, there is some
indication enough MUCAPE will be available for for a storm or two
to develop.

Latest HREF local probability matched mean points toward a quarter
inch QPF across the western cwa Thursday.

- Rain chances persist into the Weekend

A strong warm advection pattern combined with deep moisture and
instability will result in rain with embedded thunderstorms Thursday
night into early Friday. There is a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall and severe weather Thursday night as precipitable water
values are spiking up to around two inches.

Upper troughing evolves into a cut off low over the Great Lakes
region by the end of the week. This will continue the chance of
showers through Sunday as sfc low pressure slowly moves through.The
rain should be ending early next week as the low moves east.
newest oldest
Slim

The official H/L yesterday was 84/59 there was no rainfall the sun was out 71% of the time the highest wind gust was 16 MPH out of the N. For today the average H/L is 81/62 the record high of 96 was set in 1944 the coldest high of 65 was set in 1929 the record low of 41 was set in 1964 the warmest low of 75 was set in 1995 and 1908. The most rainfall of 3.61” fell in 1987.
Slim