Yesterday we reached a high of 84° and a low of 53° with mostly sunny skies. Our forecast remains much the same with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and mostly dry conditions into next week. A small chance of rain exists for the weekend.
ECMWF Winter Forecast
This is the ECMWF winter forecast (ECMWF is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.) As Slim mentioned in yesterday’s post they are guessing a 60 to 70% chance of above-normal temperatures for Michigan. This could mean another near-snowless winter. This summer we had nearly no mosquitoes and a population explosion of chipmunks and red squirrels. I have live-trapped over 60 chipmunks and a few red squirrels so far this year (releasing them deep in our woods).
Weather History
1986: Clusters of thunderstorms moving along a stalled front bring record rains to Lower Michigan for the second straight day. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches resulted in extreme flooding and contributed to making September 1986 the wettest month on record across the area.
2013: A severe thunderstorm with wind gusts of up to 80 mph brought down numerous trees and power lines in Albion, Michigan. Albion College was closed for several days due to all the wind damage and loss of power.
Albion Storm – Radarscope archive
On September 11, 2000, widespread, severe urban flooding resulted in a Presidential Disaster Declaration for Wayne County. The communities most severely affected included Allen Park, Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, Ecorse, Lincoln Park, Melvindale, Riverview, Southgate, Taylor, Van Buren Township, Wyandotte, and Wayne. Over 15,000 residences and other structures in Wayne County suffered at least some flood damage. Numerous motorists had to be rescued from their stalled and stranded vehicles. The Governor of Michigan estimated $19 million in personal property damage in Wayne County but said that estimate was conservative.
Also on September 11, 1986, Saginaw received 4.55 inches of rainfall. The previous day (September 10, 1986), Saginaw had received 5.51 inches of rainfall. This makes a two-day total of 10.06 inches of rainfall in Saginaw – almost three times the amount of rainfall that Saginaw normally receives throughout the entire month!
NWS Forecast
Forecast Discussion
- Continued mainly dry conditions with warming temperatures We will see dry conditions continue to dominate through the end of the work week, with temperatures slowly warming each day. Humidity levels do not look to be to bad with dew points staying mostly in the 50s. The only caveat to the dominating dry conditions will be a batch of mid clouds affecting much of Lower Michigan through today. These mid clouds are associated with a weakening mid level short wave that is over Wisconsin early this morning. Forecast soundings show moisture will be tough to get much below 12k ft agl with plenty of dry air below. Worse case scenario looks to be maybe a few light sprinkles through today. These will be of no consequence or impact. Otherwise, the short wave moves through later today, and upper ridging builds back over the area ahead of a digging trough over the Pacific NW. This will provide for plenty of subsidence, and 850 mb temperatures inching up to the mid to upper teens C. These temps aloft will continue to support max temps well into the 80s. - Low confidence for tropical moisture arriving next weekend Gulf moisture makes a run towards Michigan but may not get here until later in the weekend if at all. Model trends are for the remnant low of Francine to stall and dissipate in the vicinity of southern Illinois by Saturday with northward progress of the low impeded by a blocking high to the northeast of Lower Michigan. Sensible weather will feature dry weather with above normal temperatures through Saturday. The blended model forecast brings low chance POPs in Saturday night and lingering into early next week in the blocking pattern. There is the possibility that the blocking high moves east and forces another tropical cyclone off the Carolina coast to retrograde inland and northeast and both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF operational runs show the moisture with this low approaching Michigan from the southeast in the middle of next week.
In recent years it has stayed “summer like” into early October. Even lots of 70s and 80s into early October with sun and greenery. Looks like this year might continue the trend
Full blown summer until the end of September. I love it!
That’s a lot of red. I agree about the mosquitos. I think I only needed to use repellant once or twice this summer. I haven’t noticed an uptick in squirrels in chipmunks. However, there are many more woodchucks and bunnies around here. They seem to be everywhere.
The official H/L yesterday was 82/51 there was no rainfall the sun was out 96% of the time. For today the average H/L is 76/55 the record high of 94 was set in 1931 the coldest high of 55 was set in 1940. The record low of 32 was set in 1943 and the warmest low of 71 was set in 1931 and 1900. The record rainfall of 3.21” fell in 1986. The overnight low here in MBY was 51 and at the current time it is 52.
Slim