We have some scattered showers moving through the area this morning thanks to a warm front which will bring our temperatures to more of a summer-like pattern for Michigan. Highs today will be in the mid-70s rising into near 80 tomorrow through Saturday.
Grand Rapids Forecast
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Weather History for SW Michigan
September 17
1972: A severe thunderstorm produces two tornadoes. The first damages a car six miles northeast of Kalamazoo. The second damages a house three miles south of Middleville.
1973: It was a record cool day as clouds and rain held high temperatures in the 40s across western Michigan. The high of 47 degrees this afternoon at Grand Rapids would be followed by a record low of 35 degrees the next morning.
1977: Two tornadoes struck Lower Michigan. One person was injured in the town of Flushing in Genesee County. Thirty homes and a library sustained heavy damage there. Another tornado hit near Westphalia in Clinton County, damaging a house and a garage.
September 18
1918: A tornado destroyed a large barn about 5 miles southeast of Grand Haven in Ottawa County, and carried the timbers a half mile.
September 19
1997: A line of severe thunderstorms producing wind gusts to 70 mph downed trees and power lines from Allegan County through Jackson County. Around 10,000 customers lost power. A boy in Hastings was injured by a lightning strike.
September 20
1957: Thunderstorms with heavy rain of up to 2 inches flooded streets and viaducts in Grand Rapids.
1968: A tornado hits a rural area about five miles south of Lansing at 2:15 in the morning, damaging two barns and a shed.
September 21
1863: Lansing records a low temperature of 19 degrees, the coldest on record for the month of September.
1956: Intense lightning from thunderstorms is responsible for 11 house fires in Ottawa and Kent Counties, accounting for thousands of dollars in damage.
1967: A small tornado struck just north of Lansing at 10:45 in the morning and destroyed a garage.
1992: A tornado hit north of Webberville in Ingham County, damaging several outbuildings.
September 22
1952: Hail covered the ground like snow in Cascade Township, near Grand Rapids.
1961: A tornado hit two miles north of Marne. One person was injured and three buildings were heavily damaged.
September 23
2006: Small tornadoes hit Caledonia in Kent County and Muir in Montcalm County. The Caledonia tornado did some roof damage to a storage facility and a barn. The Muir tornado caused no structural damage but took down some tree limbs.
Weather History for SE Michigan
September 17
On September 17, 1974, an F2 tornado hit Genesee County at 11:05 p.m. This tornado cost $25,000 in damages.
September 18
On September 18, 1977, the tornado sirens beat the alarm clocks when an F1 tornado hit St. Clair County at a VERY EARLY 2:25 AM.
September 19
On September 19, 2011, Detroit recorded 1.81 inches of rainfall which is a record for the date. This helped push Detroit to its 4th wettest September on record with 6.28 inches of rain. Interestingly, the September rain did not extend farther north. Flint recorded 2.09 inches and Saginaw had 1.73 inches which were both well below average and in the top 30 driest September for those two cities.
On September 19, 2002, an upper air disturbance moved across Lower Michigan during the late afternoon and evening hours on the 19th. This disturbance combined with unseasonably warm and humid air across Lower Michigan to trigger widespread thunderstorms. These thunderstorms initially moved into the Saginaw Valley during the late afternoon hours. During the evening, another round of thunderstorms moved from south to north across the region. Some of these thunderstorms were severe with damaging wind gusts, including an estimated 100,000 dollars in damage in Algonac and Harsen Island. Three men were installing a roof at an apartment complex under construction in Ann Arbor when they were struck by lightning. Two of the men were injured, while the third was later pronounced dead.
Also on September 19, 1997, severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a strong cold front that moved across southeast Lower Michigan. The severe thunderstorms downed trees and power lines in Chelsea (Washtenaw County), Farmington Hills (Oakland County), Detroit (Wayne County), Clinton (Lenawee County), and Dundee (Monroe County). Lightning struck a farm near Coleman (Midland County) killing 4 horses. Lightning also damaged 2 houses in Waterford (Oakland County) and an apartment building in Westland (Wayne County). About 20,000 people were left without power.
September 20
On September 20, 1978, Genesee County experienced winds of 63 mph with storms passing through.
September 21
On September 21, 2022, strong to severe storms moved across the region during the morning hours, causing wind damage in Bay and Tuscola Counties and producing large hail in Wayne County.
On September 21, 2017, after a chilly start to the month, the temperature soared to 93 degrees at Flint. This broke the old record of 90 degrees from 1931.
On September 21, 2010, a cold front swept through Southeast Michigan producing severe thunderstorms north of M-59 during the evening hours. Most reports of severe weather were from the squall line that raced through the Tri-Cities, Flint, and Thumb regions. There were 21 reports of severe wind gusts and tree damage.
September 22
On September 22, 2005, 3.62 inches of rainfall fell in Flint from multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. Flash flooding was reported in both Genesee and Lapeer Counties. The severe thunderstorms produced wind damage mainly along the I 69 and I 94 corridors.
September 23
On September 23, 2021, several days of rain came to an end after a series of low-pressure systems tracked through the region. Rainfall totals from September 21 to 23 ranged from 2 to 5 inches, which led to minor to moderate flooding. Gusty winds also accompanied the stronger low pressure on the 22nd to 23rd, with numerous wind gusts over 45 mph and scattered power outages reported.
On September 23, 1974, record lows on the 22nd and 23rd of 30 degrees and 29 degrees, respectively, brought the earliest freeze on record to Detroit.
Forecast Discussion
KGRR radar trends early this morning corroborated with the 00Z HREF suggest that scattered light rain showers will linger this morning. No convection has occurred or is expected as a result of very weak instability and weak forcing from the llj which is not sufficient enough for convective initiation to occur. After fairly extensive cloud cover early today we expect more in the way of clearing to occur this afternoon. Some sun combined with southerly flow waa will help to boost max temps into the middle 70s to near 80 degrees by mid to late afternoon. Dry wx is forecast tonight through Thursday and it will be even warmer tomorrow with high temps reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. However this is still far below record high temperatures for this time of year (which are generally in the lower to middle 90s). Autumn officially arrives this weekend (early Saturday morning at 250 AM) but a summerlike weather pattern is expected with well above normal temperatures. Normal highs are near 70 and normal lows are around 50. The system developing off the Carolinas creates a blocking pattern aloft which stalls the upper low over the nrn Plains. Upper ridging inbetween these two systems keeps rain potential quite low in our area through the weekend and it`s not until sometime early next week that pops ramp up. Even when that Plains upper low does finally drift in our direction there is still not great agreement in the ensemble QPF and confidence is too low to go with anything more than chance pops through Wednesday. Latest deterministic guidance suggests that even when those upper low showers arrive, a dry low level easterly flow related to a Hudson Bay high may fend them off to some extent. After highs near 80 through Saturday, guidance continues to show a slight drop in temps. This is related to an increase in cloud cover and some sort of back door cold front with increased low level easterly flow. However that cool down probably will not be as dramatic as suggested by the NBM and suspect highs will continue to reach well in the 70s Sunday through Wednesday which is still above normal.
It’s a sunny and very warm late September day. I now have a temperature of 83 in MBY the last official reading at Grand Rapids was 78.
Slim
TWC has the Great Lakes very warm through the fall… I never trust outlooks, but it does look warm through the start of October. Which is fine with me, I love warm falls.
A recent trend has been warm falls and winters, and cool springs.
Warm falls are good as long as we get hammered with snow in the winter!!!
Well if the warm fall keeps Lake Michigan warm into early winter… then you will likely be happy 😃
If it indeed stays warm in October I will take a look at some winters with a warm fall later in the year. In a quick look there is no relation with a very warm October and a lot of snow in the following winter season.
Slim