We have had a busy tropical weather season this year with three more named storms in the Atlantic today. TS Sally is expected to make landfall by Monday. Paulette is expected to be well off the eastern seaboard.
KEY MESSAGES: 1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is now expected, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected by early Tuesday from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely by Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas. 3. Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across southern and central Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across Central Florida through Monday. Significant flash flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across portions of the Central Gulf Coast from Monday through the middle of the week.
There are normally fewer than 21 named tropical storms in any calendar year. In the rare years when more than 21 storms are named, the additional storms are given names from the Greek alphabet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta are used for their names. This will be one of those rare years we may see this happen.
We have had .20 of an inch of rain yesterday and overnight in Otsego and a current temp of 61 at 6 am. This brings our total for the month to 2.69 inches. Below is the current drought conditions for Michigan as of last Thursday.
All the NWS graphics are not available yet this morning – you can find them on the main page here as they become available. I keep farmers hours so I am sometimes up before the NWS graphics are updated which is usually anytime between 4 am and 7 am.
-- Drying out early this week with pleasant temperatures -- Frontal passage during the middle of the night produced some brief 15-25 mph wind gusts near and south of I-96. Now under the thermal trough at 850 mb today with low-level moisture slow to exit, there may be lingering stratocumulus for much of the day especially north of I-96 away from Lake Michigan. Breezy west winds are expected to develop with diurnal mixing also, given the 15 to 20 knot winds in the lowest 3,000 feet. Temperatures won`t be too far from mid-September normals the next few days, with a warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday in southwest flow behind the low level anticyclone. Radiational cooling tonight and especially Monday night could make a few spots rather chilly. One note, given the mostly sunny skies in the forecast Monday and Tuesday, the HRRR-Smoke is advecting a fairly dense upper- level smoke plume (from the western US fires) over our region on Monday, and it is extensive enough to seem able to continue at least through Tuesday. So skies will likely not be brilliantly blue then. The smoke isn`t expected to mix down to the surface. -- Chance of rain Thursday -- Ensembles are split on rain chances for Thursday ahead of a cold front, with some producing heavy rain swaths and others staying dry. For now, Tropical Storm Sally (or hurricane as forecast) is not expected to affect our area, though some mid-level moisture contribution is possible in solutions that bring us rain. -- Cooling off next weekend -- The 00Z ECMWF has 850 mb temperatures falling below 0 C over the weekend, with strong high pressure overhead. Could be frost potential in some locations if this were to verify.