Tornado Info – Today’s Weather – 4/6

A good site to find tornado information is the Lansing State Journal which goes back to 1951 in its tornado archive.  We have had 1237 tornados since 1951.  The most active years were 2001 and 1976 with 42 tornados.  Another site of course is Wikipedia which covers pre-1950 to present.

High pressure will bring fair, but cool weather today. We will see sunshine today but temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal holding in the 40s for highs. A cold front will push through on Monday with a burst of snow and even colder readings as highs drop into the 30s. A dusting to around 1 inch of snow is possible Monday morning from I-96 to the north.

Weather History

1882: A tornado outbreak strikes Lower Michigan, killing 10 people and injuring more than 50 others. Tornadoes struck Midland and Kalamazoo Counties, killing one person each. Four people were killed in a tornado that moved between Bedford and Charlotte. Three people were killed in Oakland County by a tornado that passed between Clyde and West Highland. A tornado that struck east of Dansville in Ingham County killed one person. A barn and home were destroyed by a tornado a mile west of Charlotte, but no one was killed.

1997: A strong cold front moved through with a line of thunderstorms producing wind gusts to 70 mph and causing widespread damage across much of southern Lower Michigan.

On April 6, 2010, a prolific hail storm moved from southern Livingston County to southern Macomb County. The storm produced 1.5 inch diameter hail in Brighton, 1.75 inch in Commerce, and 2.25 inch hail in Sterling Heights.

On April 6, 2009, a low pressure system tracking northeast through the Ohio River Valley produced a late season heavy snowfall across Southeast Michigan. Snowfall totals averaged 1 to 4 inches south of I-94, 4 to 8 inches between I-94 and I-69, and 1 to 4 inches north of I-69. Due to the heavy snow and winds to around 30 mph, tree branches came down which resulted in power outages focused along the M-59 corridor. Some of the higher snowfall included Grand Blanc 6.3 inches, Elba 7.0 inches, Cement City 6.0 inches, Howell 6.3 inches, Shelby Township 6.4 inches, White Lake 7.8 inches, Deckerville 6.0 inches, Ann Arbor 6.0 inches, and Romulus 6.7 inches.

On April 6, 1886, the biggest snowfall ever recorded in Detroit in a 24 hour period occurred with 24.5 inches. This snow had a very high water content (2.43 inches) and was therefore very heavy and packed. This made it difficult for residents and services, such as police and medical, to travel anywhere. Amazingly, the next day temperatures rose to 40 degrees and up into the 50s later in the week.

Also on April 6, 1882, the earliest recorded Michigan tornado outbreak hit Southern Lower Michigan. Six tornadoes rolled across the southern part of the state including Midland, Bay, Livingston and Oakland Counties. In the state there were 10 deaths and 54 injuries as a result of the outbreak. The Midland tornado started just north of Midland and ended near Inwood in Bay County. This tornado was responsible for 1 death and 15 injuries. The Livingston tornado started near Hartland and moved to Clyde in Oakland County. Five homes were destroyed near Clyde where the 3 deaths and three injuries were reported.

Forecast Discussion

- Clearing with mild weather today

A pattern shift is in store today. Models remain in good agreement
with a strong low slowly moving eastward across northern Canada.
That low will bring a strong gradient over the region which will
fuel cold air advection across Michigan. Dry air along with a mid
level ridge will allow for clearing skies and fair weather today,
albeit slightly cooler than normal. That ridge will be short
lived as a short wave making its way around the previously
mentioned upper level low will couple with mid and low level lows
to drop down through Lower Michigan tonight into Monday.

- Snow possible Monday morning; Cold through Tuesday

Bottom Line up front: Snow is possible for the Monday commute which
could cause some slick spots to the roads, especially bridges and
overpasses. However, given the variability stated above will hold
off on any headlines.

 500 mb PV anomalies will aid a clipper as it treks across Lower
Michigan tonight through Monday morning. Not much has changed
overall in the forecast, though there remains some variation on
snow amounts. Model soundings show a strong low level jet moving
over the area after 06Z Monday. Soundings also show a strong DGZ,
or dendritic growth zone, which will allow for snow generation
between 06Z to 15Z Monday morning.

  QPF is fairly limited, plus given the wet ground and marginal
temperatures, snow will have a tough time accumulating.  Looking at
the latest HRRR, the 10:1 ratio snow total has very little
accumulation, where the Kuchera method shows snow totals potentially
in the 1 to 3 inch range, especially along the US 10 corridor. Using
the Cobb snow tool in conjunction with different models has Big
Rapids northward with a half an inch.   Thus for snow to accumulate
rates would need to be fairly intense and given the ingredients
listed above, there is the possibility for that for a short period.

The snow bands would arrive just before sunrise. Best chance for
snow would be between 10Z to 15Z with light amounts before and
after. Have adjusted the forecast with more widespread snow, up to
half an inch along the I-96 corridor, with slightly lower amounts up
north, with 1 to 2 inches possible.

  Colder air behind the clipper will sink the region into the
doldrums of winter once more. A pause on spring will bring a bitter
beginning to April. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the low 20s
to upper teens. Highs will attempt to get into the upper 30s
Tuesday with lows again in the teens and 20s into Wednesday
morning.

- Chances for Rain through second half of week

 Thankfully the blast of cold air will be short lived. More zonal
flow, along with a mid level level low will bring warm air back
into the region through the latter half of the week.
 However, coupled with this Warm air, will be precipitation. There
remains some variance on timing, location and QPF amounts. Best
QPF should be south of Lower Michigan, with the NAEFS anomalies
being below normal. So while rain is possible late Wednesday into
Thursday it doesn`t seem impactful at this time.