Today’s Hazards – 4/28

Hazards

Weather History

1964: A tornado destroyed a cottage and downed trees north of Newaygo.

1991: A restaurant was destroyed and a hardware store was unroofed as a tornado moved along the northwest edge of Hart in Oceana County.

On April 28, 2011, heavy rain that started on April 27 continued across Southeast Michigan. All locations received over an inch of rain during the two days, but many locations in the Saginaw Valley and Thumb had over 3 inches. Several roads in the Thumb region were closed. This rainfall helped to make it the third wettest April in Saginaw, fourth wettest in Detroit and the fifth wettest in Flint. The wet April assisted in making the spring of 2011 the wettest in Flint history, second wettest in Detroit, and the eleventh wettest in Saginaw.

Also on April 28, 1986, an F2 tornado hit Saginaw County at 2:33 pm which cost $2.5 million in damages.

Forecast Discussion

- Elevated fire danger Today

Bottom Line Up Front: Highs in the mid to upper 70s, low RH values
and wind gusts upwards of 25 mph will bring an elevated fire
danger to Lower Michigan Today.

High pressure will build over the region today with clear skies and
warm air advection. The clear skies along with that warm air
advection will bring temps into the mid to upper 70s this
afternoon. As far as Dew points, there is some question with some
models dropping DP`s into the 30s. The overall CAM consensus is
that Dewpoints will be in the 40s along and west of US 131 with
Dew points in the upper 30s east of US 131. Looking at soundings,
there is some dry air aloft, approx 3-4kft, currently, the region
should mix to about 1.5-2KFT. That would drop dew points lower
potentially dropping RH`s into the mid to low 20s. As it stands
have RH`s in the upper 20s to low 30s. As stated above, winds will
mix down to the SFC cut gusts upwards of 25 to 30 mph will be
possible this afternoon. Given these conditions, an elevated fire
danger is a concern, particularly vulnerable will be the Manistee
National Forest area. Will hold off on any headlines for now but
will continue to coordinate with Land Management Agencies.

- Storms Possible Tonight into Tomorrow

Latest 00Z CAMS continue to downplay convection tonight into
tomorrow. The best CAPE will be north and south of southern lower
Michigan, bifurcating the region. The ARW seems to have the best
handle on latest convection through the west. There continues to
be a strong low level jet moving over the region tonight. If
convection is able to fire, this jet and shear will be able to
sustain storms overnight. However, low levels are very dry, and
given the system will moving in late, the convection will be
elevated with a stable later near the SFC. Given those conditions
storms will have difficulty forming. Best chance for storms will
be through the NW region, primarily north of Muskegon. Best time
of convection will be late tonight, early Tuesday morning as the
front moves through. Given the change, have lowered POPS through
much of the region to focus on NW. There remains some timing
concerns as the front moves east so have kept higher POPS near
Jackson to account for afternoon convection if the cold front
lingers.

- Showers and storms Possible through the latter half of the week

While the upper level forcing for Wednesday evening through
Friday`s system isn`t hugely robust, there remains good moisture
advection along with strong warm air advection. Mid range models
remain fairly consistent so a warm and wet pattern looks to be in
store. The precip on Thursday will be focused due to a shortwave
and its sfc reflection as it tracks northeast along the frontal
boundary south of MI. Some stronger storms late Thursday are
possible if the low shifts northward. As the sfc low moves to the
east, the region should receive more precipitation on the
backside of the low, especially from a secondary front from the
passage of an upper level trough on Friday. Cooler air will then
filter in next weekend.