I work for the West Michigan Whitecaps and with the Tigers getting into the playoffs for the 1st time since 2014 is a great thrill for me as I have seen many of the teams players play here in Grand Rapids.
It will be October next week so now is a good time to look at some October weather history.
The average mean temperature for October at Grand Rapids is 51.5 the record warmest October was in 1900 with a mean of 59.1. That October had 4 days in a row with highs in the mid 80’s. The record coldest October was in 1925 with a mean of 42.9. That October had 4 days in a row with highs in the 30’s with one day of a high of just 30. There was also 7.5” of snow that October. The record high for October is 89 on October 1st 1897 and the record low is 18 on October 31st 1988. The average rain fall for Grand Rapids in 4.02” The most rain fall of 9.69” fell in 2017. The least rain fall was 0.03” in 1952. The average snow fall is 0.03” The most snow fall of 8.4” fell in 1967 (the winter of 1967/68 there was just 55..1” of snow fall) The least snow fall was 0” in many years the last time was in 2022. Last year Grand Rapids started October with a 4 day heatwave with high temperatures in the 80’s reaching a record high of 86 on the 3rd The month ended with a cold Halloween with a H/L of 39/28 and there was 0.1” of snowfall.
Here is the updated (September 23, 2024) ECMWF winter forecast. Over North America, the updated ECMWF winter forecast shows mostly warmer-than-normal temperatures over eastern Canada, the southern and eastern United States, and the Midwest. The warm anomaly gets weaker toward the northern and northwestern United States, with a normal area over western Canada.
Most of the central, southern, and eastern United States are forecast with below-average snowfall. This is perhaps a bit surprising, especially for the Midwest and the far Northeast, which can get more snow in a weak La Niña winter. More snowfall is forecast for the northwestern United States and parts of the north. Most of southern Canada also has above-average snowfall for this period. There are other winter long range guesses out and I will try to toss them up from time to time.
So even with weak La Nina in the winter forecast it still could be a warmer than average winter with less than average snowfall.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 75/55 there was no rainfall the sun was out 40% of the possible time the highest wind gust was 36MPH out of the NE. For today the average H/L is 69/48 the record high of 86 was set in 1905 the coldest high of just 43 was set in 1912. The record low of 27 was set in 1991 the warmest low of 69 was set in 1971. The most rainfall of 1.96” fell in 1999.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
344 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
- MOST OF NEXT WEEK DRY AND SEASONABLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2024
- SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FORECAST REMAINS STEADY AS POST TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. IT'S TRACK CONTINUE TO BE SLOW
AND MEANDERING OVER KY, OHIO AND WV THIS WEEKEND. ANOMALOUS PWATS
OF UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE. LATEST SHOWERS
ACCORDING TO THE 0725Z RADAR HAS MOST OF THE SHOWERS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR. THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY INTO TOMORROW. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO NOT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNAL REMAINS THAT SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR SHOULD PERSIST. MORE ON THAT IN
THE NEXT SECTION.
- MOST OF NEXT WEEK DRY AND SEASONABLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE FAR NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW OVER KY MAY CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A AZO
TO LAN LINE THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER POPS AND QPF REMAINING ON THE
LOW/LIGHT SIDE AND MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LEANS BACK IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ONCE THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY OUT OF THE PICTURE WE HAVE A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY WHICH WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT OF RAIN WITH THAT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY OVER NRN
AND ERN LWR MI THOUGH, WITH LOWER POPS IN WRN LWR MI.
WE CONTINUE TO FEATURE A DRY FORECAST FOR WED AND THUR AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BEHIND TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. THE COOL DOWN ON
WEDNESDAY LOOKS BRIEF WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING AN H8 THERMAL RIDGE
ALREADY NOSING BACK IN FROM THE WEST WED NGT AND THUR. IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE 70-75 MOST OF NEXT WEEK OTHER THAN THE MID TO UPR 60S
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.
SOME SUPPORT FOR POPS RETURNING ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPPING IN, BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MAY BE A PROBLEM WITH THAT
FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO PASS NORTH OF MI.
Excited about the Tigs. No hotter team in baseball. The past month and half has been incredible.
It’s homecoming weekend for our daughter’s school so we’re west of Chicago. The “circle of rain” has remained just off to our south, and I hope that continues. We’re going to the homecoming parade this morning, tailgate, and then the game this afternoon.
Have a great weekend, friends.
Interesting how the record high was Oct 1 and the record low was Oct 31. Definitely the main “transition month” in terms of temperature