We ended up with 1.53 inches of rain from the wet system which passed through on Monday thankfully we have a sunny day in store to start to dry things out a bit. We have had 5.29 inches for the month and 7.45 inches for the fall season. Yesterday’s high temp was 47.8° and the low was 42.8°.
That was quite a soak (for many)! With the rain now ending, here’s a plot of rainfall totals through 2:30 PM, using a blend of gauge measurements and radar estimates. We’ve also included a table of some measured amounts. 2”+ was common along the I-94 corridor, with 1.5–2.0” along I-96. Some rivers and streams have risen markedly, but no flooding is expected. Meanwhile, some of our northern areas didn’t see any measurable rain!
Forecast Discussion
- Dry for most locations through Wednesday night A few early morning showers are possible near Ludington as a shallow lake effect setup will be in place. Other than that, we will feature dry conditions through Wednesday night as a mid to upper level ridge builds in from the west. Subsidence associated with this feature will support deep drying of the atmosphere. Abundant sunshine will prevail today as a result. Seasonably cool max temperatures in the low to mid 50s are predicted. Good radiational cooling is expected tonight as the winds will be light and the atmosphere dry. Cooler than normal lows are predicted with low to mid 30s likely and even a few 20s possible. Low level moisture is shown by the models to increase from east to west on Wednesday. We will trend the forecast towards more cloud cover as a result. These clouds may also hold back the max temperatures on Wednesday. - Rain moves in later Thursday into Thursday night The next wave of low pressure approaches from the west Thursday. This system is projected to remain south of the area with many of the models tracking it up the OH Valley. The system is shown to feature a closed mid level low that is projected to slowly as it moves into the Central Appalachians. Here in MI, we are expected to see a band of rain lifting in from the south later Thursday into Thursday night. Mid level Fgen, trowal and some upper level divergence will support wet conditions for much of the CWA persisting into Friday. A diminishing trend to the rain is predicted for later Friday into Friday evening as the storm system pulls away. While most of the area will see rain, overall QPF values are not expected to be significant with many locations likely to see a half inch or less. Highest amounts for Southern Lower MI. - Cold front pushes in for later Sunday into Sunday night The models are showing a cold front pushing in from the northwest later Sunday into Sunday night as a surface low deepens near Southern Hudson Bay. The next cold airmass looks significant as cold air advection is shown through the Canadian Prairies. The 00z GFS and High Res Euro are showing a surface wave developing upstream along the front for Monday. They then track this wave into parts of the CWA for Monday night or Tuesday some precipitation.
There is a big drop off in the average temperatures over the next 6 days. The average H/L starts out at 56.1/39.1 today and by Sunday it drops to 54.0/37.5. The overnight low here at my house was 34 and there was some frost this AM the official overnight low at GRR was 37. The grass is growing by the day and I will have to cut it once again. Not sure how many more times I grass will have to be cut this fall yet. And most of the leaves are still on the trees this is one of… Read more »
The first trees behind our house have finally changed over, but 80 to 90% of them are still green. And the grass, this is the fastest it’s grown all year. With the drought conditions this Spring, and even as recently as just a few weeks ago in September, I’m mowing more now than I have all year. And next week is November.
It is awesome to see the sun this morning. It is so bright.
Less than a week to go in October and it’s still pretty green. No doubt, October will go down as yet another warm month in our multi-year warm pattern.
Until just the past few days this October was on track to be the warmest on record in many locations. With the recent cool down that will not happen but this October should end up well above average.
Slim