The of Gales of November
It has been a while since there has been a huge wind storm on the Great Lakes That said the Great Lake Region had two big storms on the same date, one in 1975 and the other in 1998. First the 1975 storm, the one that brought down the Edmund Fitzgerald. During the period of November 9-10, 1975, a strong autumn storm tracked from the central U.S. through the Great Lakes region. While intense, at the start it was not unusually strong for November. Early on the morning of November 9, a low-pressure system was organizing in central Kansas and had a pressure of 29.53 inches. By the evening of November 9, the low had moved northeast to eastern Iowa and had strengthened to 29.32 inches. During the next 12 hours, the storm system underwent its most rapid intensification as it moved northeast into Upper Michigan. On the morning of November 10, the low was located over Marquette, MI, and had a pressure of 29.00 inches. The low tracked northeast across Lake Superior that morning before reaching just southwest of James Bay in Ontario during the evening. Its pressure that evening was 28.88 inches. Ship observations during the November 1975 storm showed sustained wind speeds of 30 to 45 knots from the northeast, east, or southeast prior to the low-pressure system crossing the lake. As the low crossed the lake, winds shifted to the northwest and increased. Wind speeds of 50 knots were recorded over the eastern part of the lake. Ship observations indicated waves of 16 to 18 feet during the height of the storm.
On land here are some observations for November 10, 1975, Sault Ste Marie the H/L was 58/36 there was 0.36” of rain fall and just a trace of snow fall. To the west at Marquette the H/L was 52/35 with 0.27” of rain and just a trace of snow fall. Marquette did record 7.5” of snow fall on the 12th of November. I lived in Bay City in 1975, and I remember it got very windy late in the day but it was not cold at all with a H/L of 55/38 and there was no rain or snow there. Here in Grand Rapids the day was actually warm with a H/L of 66/38 and a reported 0.13” of rain fall and no snow fall. Not sure what the wind speed was. If anyone can remember that day let me know.
Then in 1998 at almost to the same hours and following practically the same track as the November 1975 storm, a more intense storm system tracked northeast from the central U.S. through the Great Lakes region during the period of November 9-11, 1998. On the morning of November 9, a low pressure system was organizing in eastern Colorado. Its pressure at that time was 29.41 inches. The system tracked east and then curved northeast, reaching northwest Iowa on the morning of November 10. It had rapidly intensified with its pressure dropping to 28.70 inches. The storm system further strengthened to an unusually low 28.55 inches as it tracked just east of Duluth, MN early in the evening of the 10th. By the morning of November 11th, the low was located in north central Ontario. Its pressure at that time was 28.58 inches. The November 1998 storm produced widespread damaging winds across the upper Great Lakes region. On Lake Superior, the observing sites at Devils Island within Wisconsin’s Apostle Islands, at Rock of Ages and at Passage Island on the south and north ends of Isle Royale, respectively, and at Stannard Rock, 40 miles north of Marquette, all reported lengthy periods of gale force winds of 34 to 47 knots. Gusts frequently exceeded 50 knots. Wind directions were primarily east, southeast, and south as the storm center approached and then moved over western Lake Superior. The wind then shifted west and northwest as the low moved into Ontario. While wave observations were not available, the long duration of gale and occasional storm force wind (wind in excess of 47 knots) likely produced significant wave heights of 20 to 25 feet on the open waters of Lake Superior.
On land for this storm at the Sault the H/L on the 10th was 54/38 falling to 42/33 on the 11th there was 1.60” of rain on the 10th and 0.27 on the 11th there was no snow fall.
At Marquette the H/L was 53/31 on the 10th falling to 34/27 on the 11th there was 0.77” of rain on the 10th and 0.02 on the 11th there was 0.5” of snow on the 10th and 0.2” on the 11th Here in Grand Rapids the H/L on the 10th was 60/14 falling to 42/35 for the 11th There was 1.37” of rain on the 10th and 0.06” on the 11th of that 0.2” was snow fall. It was very windy here in GR and I remember being at Meijer and seeing flashing of transformist and there were widespread power outages.
The White Hurricane 1913. The storm was given several monikers, including “White Hurricane,” the “Frozen Fury,” and the “Big Blow.”
But really, it was two storm systems colliding to produce what forecasters call a “meteorological bomb,” that exploded over the Great Lakes from Nov. 7-11.
In that time, more than 250 sailors were lost. At least 12 ships sank. Many more were stranded or smashed against the rocky shorelines from Lake Superior to Lake Erie.
Lake Huron saw the worst of this hellish storm, with eight ships going under and 187 lives lost during one violent six-hour window.
This was caused by an “unusual atmospheric phasing” of the Pre-Storm to the north and another storm system that was developing over the southeast U.S.
“The resultant ‘meteorological bomb’ over the eastern Great Lakes would produce prolonged, hurricane-force winds, blinding snow squalls, freezing spray and massive wave trains over the Great Lakes.
Here in Grand Rapids the high reached 64 on November 7th but fell to a high of just 29 by the 10th when 1” of snow fall was reported.
The 1940 storm
On November 11, 1940, a rapidly deepening low pressure system moved northeast from Kansas City, MO northeast through the Upper Mississippi River Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes. This low pressure area produced the lowest pressure reading ever recorded up to this time at Charles City, IA (28.92 inches), La Crosse, WI (28.72 inches), and Duluth, MN (28.66 inches).
Armistice Day (now known as Veteran’s Day) began with blue skies and temperatures in the 40s and 50s. The weather forecast for that morning was for colder temperatures and a few flurries. During the late morning and early afternoon, a strong cold front moved through the region. Behind this front, the weather became rather blustery, and the temperature plunged to the single digits by the next morning. The rain turned to sleet and eventually to driving snow.
Here in Grand Rapids the high on November 11, 1940 was 64 but on the 12th it was only 29 and on the 13th it the high was just 25. Lows were in the low to mid 20’s but only 0.2” of snow was reported. While 17.3” of snow fell that November most of it fell the last 3 days.
It looks like for the most part the big November storms of the past had mostly little effect on areas away from the lakes.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 58/41 there was no rain or snowfall. The peak wind gust was 24 MPH out of the W. The sun was out 100% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is now down to 50/35 the record high of 77 was set in 2020 the coldest high of 29 was set in 1957. The record low of 16 was set in 2003 the warmest low of 56 was set in 2020. The wettest was 2.53” in 1966 the most snowfall of 4.0” fell in 1894 the most on the ground was 4” in 1921. Last year the H/L was 52/40.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
228 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
KEY MESSAGES
– RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
– ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
– RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
RIDGING AND DRY AIR LOOKS TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A FEW CAMS TRY TO SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SYSTEM BUT GIVEN A DRY PROFILE THIS SEEMS TO NOT BE REALISTIC.
AFTER MIDNIGHT DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES. FORCING TO START PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WAVE CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH PWATS OVER
1 INCH AND ADDITIONAL LLJ FORCING WARRANTING POPS GREATER THAN 70%
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NO INSTABILITY PRECLUDES ANY THUNDER FROM
THE FORECAST.
SHOWERS DECREASE FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE DRY SLOW OF
THIS OCCLUDED SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL COLD
POOL AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND, BUT
COVERAGE MUCH LOWER THAN OVERNIGHT. AS THE DRY SLOT EXITS LATER
SUNDAY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL COLD POOL ISN’T REALLY THAT COLD WITH 850MB
TEMPS ONLY FALLING BY 2-3 DEGREES. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS SOLIDLY IN
THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
– ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AT THIS POINT THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY AND WITH SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE ATTENTION TURNS TO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TIMING OF
THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM IS VARYING BETWEEN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH UPPER
LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE, POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION, AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION. GEFS MEMBERS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHILE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SLOWER BRINGING IT
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HENCE THE BETTER PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT) FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME ARE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BETTER SAMPLED ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST CONUS MONDAY WITH TIMING BECOMING CLEARER FOR THE TUESDAY
MORNING FORECAST. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ROUND OF RAIN
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING.
RIDGING QUICKLY FILLS BACK IN ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES ENDING THE WEEK
WITH PLEASANT FALL WEATHER. HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
Not sure if anyone saw, but quite the significant snowstorm in New Mexico a couple days ago. I didnt realize they got so much snow down there… must be more mountainous than I thought
After a beautiful sunrise this morning, the skies are beginning to cloud up. This morning, I removed the mower deck from the lawn tractor for the season, ready to install the plow and chains.
Yesterday’s high was 59 and the low was 38.