Two months of summer have flown by and our last 9 pm sunset will be tomorrow. Yesterday’s high was 87° and the low was 65° with dewpoints in the low 70s. Once again we had no rainfall.
Isolated storms are possible through this evening and patchy fog is expected overnight. Showers and storms return overnight into Friday with humid conditions continuing. Highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s are expected.
SPC Forecast
Day One
CPC Forecast
Weather History
1886: A tornado moves from northern Kalamazoo County into Barry County, damaging several farms in and near Hickory Corners.
1947: What turns out to be the hottest August on record starts off on a decidedly cool note with record lows of 48 degrees at Grand Rapids and 43 degrees at Muskegon.
1993: A severe storm in Kent County produced grapefruit-sized hail in Cannon Township, northeast of Grand Rapids.
2002: A tornado struck north of Tustin in Osceola County. The tornado left a damage path six miles long, with dozens of large trees down and some roof damage to homes. One house had its attached garage destroyed. A weaker tornado also hit near Grant in Newaygo County, toppling a tree.
On August 1, 2018, a low-pressure system brought heavy rain to the region which provided relief after an abnormally dry July. 1 to 3 inches of rain fell with some localized areas seeing 4 inches – most of it during a 3-hour period or less during the overnight period. This led to areas of flooding, specifically over Dearborn Heights and Taylor where several feet of water were reported over roadways the following morning. Additionally, a weak EF0 tornado was reported in Taylor shortly after midnight and resulted in minor damage near the Southland Center.
On August 1, 1925, the record for the greatest rainfall in Detroit for a 24-hour period was set with 4.75 inches of precipitation from July 31st to August 1st (an additional .01″ fell early on Aug 1st).
NWS Forecast
Forecast Discussion
- Chances for scattered storms today through Friday Compact upper-level low over Minnesota this morning, and its associated surface low, will gradually move toward Michigan/Indiana border vicinity by Friday morning. This low will provide a better tendency for lift to support scattered thunderstorms compared to Wednesday. Warm and humid air mass in the lower levels is still present across Michigan, with sufficiently cool mid-upper levels for deep instability. Areas of fog will quickly mix out after sunrise while cirrus/altostratus from upstream decaying convection thickens during the morning. Convective inhibition of the surface layer will likely prevent thunderstorm development until mid-late afternoon, when the approaching low begins to exert more influence in the mid levels. Storms could initiate along zones of weak surface wind convergence over inland portions of mid and southwest Lower Michigan, then propagate erratically against weak steering flow that will eventually nudge the chances farther northeast into the night. HREF mean surface CAPE this evening is at or above 1000 J/kg, though most of it is concentrated below the hail growth layer. Shear between 0-6 km will be rather low, likely no more than 20 knots, though there is somewhat better upper-level shear above 6 km for any pulses of better convective updrafts that rise into the hail growth layer. Rather high PW in this moist atmosphere and fairly steep lapse rates from the mid to low levels should support some precip- loaded downdrafts and isolated strong to severe wind gusts this evening. HREF member models have little consistency regarding when any particular location may see a thunderstorm, but splotches of 1 to 3 inch rain amounts could fall quickly in spots while others get missed. Scattered thunderstorms will likely continue through the night and into Friday, more so in the southern half of Lower Michigan, as the low slowly moves toward the eastern Great Lakes. - Hot and dry Saturday; Rain chances return Sunday The system that is expected to bring the showers and storms to the area Thursday/Friday should be exiting the area before sunrise Saturday morning. Upper ridging building in from the NW will likely result in plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will remain warm with no real change in air mass in the wake of the low. What will feel different will be the humidity levels as dew points will drop to around 60 as the better moisture gets swept out of the area. The break in the rain chances will be short lived as a frontal system will be dropping down through the area on Sunday. The showers and storms along this front will likely be no more than scattered in nature due to the limited instability and at best a weak short wave moving across Central and Northern Lower. Many areas will be dry most of, if not all day Sunday. The best chance of rain will be across interior portions of Central Lower away from the lake. One more warmer day is expected too with the front moving through later in the day. - Storms with heavy rain possible Monday-Tuesday The front moving south through the area on Sunday will set the stage for showers and storms for Monday into Tuesday. What was looking like a severe weather event sometime on Tuesday looks to be transitioning to more of a hydro event later Monday through Tuesday. The change in the thinking is the result of weaker dynamics now expected than previously thought, and the nearly stalled out boundary expected to be a touch further south than previously expected. The front is expected to drop to just south of the Michigan/Indiana state line Sunday night. There looks to still be just limited coverage at that time. We are expecting the front to become more active through the course of Monday as we see mid/upper level jet forcing move over the stalled out boundary. Low level jet progs show that the winds will increase by Monday night, and will be pushing the warmer and more humid air mass up over the front helping to fire showers and storms. The concern with this scenario is that with the front nearly stationary, the low level jet will be aimed at it Monday night and into Tuesday afternoon. This is likely to result in waves of showers/storms training over the same areas. With the air mass very moist running over the front with pwats around 2 inches, the rainfall could add up over that time with efficient rain processes and heavy downpours. This scenario looks likely to happen. Uncertainty exists with where exactly it will happen. That will depend on where the front stalls out exactly. Definitely a concern that we will continue to monitor. Once the sfc low moves through Tuesday afternoon, we will see the front sag far enough south to take all of the warm and moist air well south of the area. It looks like we will see one of the first early fall Canadian air masses of the season settle in.
Grass is getting crunchy soon we will be shoveling snow let’s Goooo!! INDY
Now that is a great thought! Can’t wait!
Not a single drop of rain here! Disappointing and pathetic!
Very nice sounding, although distant, booms to my North 😉
I was up north last week we had lows in the high 40’s and I already noticed a few trees turning colors crazy… INDY ….
– Scattered storms tonight and Friday; locally heavy rainfall A well defined upper trough across the Midwest is visible this afternoon on GOES mid level WV imagery as well as clean IR and visible satellite imagery. A very humid airmass is in place ahead of this feature with dew points in the 70s across Lower Michigan. Per the SPC mesoanalysis, SBCAPE values around or even a bit above 2000 J/kg have been achieved ahead of what appears to be a remnant MCV out over southeast Lake Michigan and SW Lower Michigan. Deep layer shear is very weak, though DCAPE values… Read more »
This ridiculously humid air can go away any time now. The past several weeks have been brutal even for our new building trying to dry out and cool the air. I had ac put in for our kitchen but it’s still way to humid, making it hard for all the coolers and freezers to keep up.
I’m thinking the ol blow torch is out if gas like I been saying all Summer long no sign of any heat or heat waves as far as the eye can see welcome to the transition month of August we all know what comes next shhhhh lol INDY
I’m liking it too INDY! Store up all that heat and unleash it from November thru March! Have a nice carbon copy of last years 2 week winter!
I’m putting my peach sprites away for a decent Fall ready for a fire 🔥 !! I hope all is well my friend INDY
Oh heck yeah INDY! Gonna start buying some Apple Wood for the back yard bonfires! Stacking up the Sprites and getting ready for some NATIONAL CHAMPION MICHIGAN WOLVERINES FOOTBALL!! INDY FALL FOOTBALL TIME!
Hail Yes!! INDY
No 90s for July and ample rain that has kept the lawn looking good and not “crunchy”. Incredible month! We may come close to or maybe hit 90 on Saturday but after that things look pretty nice.
Welcome to August. July 2024 the mean temperature at Grand Rapids was 71.5 that is a departure of -1.3. There was 5.71” of rainfall a departure of +1.85” The high for the month was 89 on the 31st and the low for the month was 47 on the 1st So far, this meteorological summer the mean at Grand Rapids is 71 the 30-year average mean is 71 so we are at average. There have been just 3 days of 90 or better, the average for June and July is 7. So far, this meteorological summer there has been 10.56” of… Read more »
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 89/63 that 89 was the warmest day in July of 2024. There was no rainfall and the sun was out 86% of the time. For today the average H/L is 82/63 we have now started our downward trend in temperatures. The record high of 98 was set in 1988 the coolest high of 67 was set in 1961 and 1912. The record low of 48 was set in 1947 the warmest low of 79 was set in 2006. The record rainfall of 1.96” fell in 1909.
Slim
The overnight low here in MBY was 70 there was no rainfall overnight. At the current time it is cloudy and 71.
Slim
What? no 90’s in GR in July and now below normal temps will be moving in next week! How is that possible?
For the summer so far GR has only had 3 days of 90 or better the average at this point is 7. And July only had 4 days above 85 in July in fact the average high in July is 83 there were only 9 days above 83 and the average high for this July was just 81.5.
Slim