Our tropical airmass will remain in place today with temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the low 70s. Yesterday we had a high of 90° and a low of 67°, dewpoints were in the low 70s. We have gone seven days without precipitation.
SPC Outlook
Day One
Day Two
Day Three
Weather History
2000: Heavy rain and high winds produce scattered damage and some flooding. The roof of a bowling alley near Jackson was damaged by an apparent microburst. Roads were closed due to flooding across southern Kalamazoo County.
On August 26, 1970, 1-inch hail was reported at 5:15 pm from severe thunderstorms passing through Saginaw County. Also, in 1986, thunderstorms produced wind gusts of 64 mph in Genesee County.
NWS Forecast
Monday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2 pm. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 92. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Monday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7 pm and 8 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 72. South wind 3 to 7 mph. The chance of precipitation is 10%.
Tuesday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2 pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 105. South wind 6 to 13 mph becoming west in the morning.
Tuesday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8 pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. West-southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers between 8 pm and 2 am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 81.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 80.
Forecast Discussion
- Isolated storms today with more organized convection Tuesday The hot and humid air mass moving over the region will fuel potential showers and storms through the first half of the week. Temperatures will continue to climb today, with Max temperatures in the low 90s across much of the lower Peninsula. Couple those hot temps with moisture advection to the tune of dew points in the 70s this afternoon and you have a recipe for afternoon showers and storms. Today convection will be more isolated as the high pressure will stifle mid to upper level growth. Tomorrow however, is a horse of a different color. A mid level low that is an extension of a mid level deepening trough extending from northeastern Canada across the Great lakes to the upper midwest will swing through the region Tuesday. NAEFS has 1.75 PWATS associated with this system. That is +2 standardized anomaly which is a strong signal for a moist air mass for this time of year. Given that moisture signal, along with HREF showing 0-3km storm relative helicity m/s2 of over 100 and there is a good environment for strong to severe storms. There will be two timeframes for convection. One will be around sunrise as a trough begins to move into the area. The second will be in the afternoon as a secondary, deep trough moves through and should be able to tap into the hot and humid daytime air. Given these conditions SPC has a slight risk across the entire region tomorrow. The main threat will be large hail and damaging winds with storms potentially lingering through the first half of the evening. High temperatures will continue to rise through tomorrow and given the heat and humidity there is concern for heat indices reaching advisory criteria over the next few days. Today, heat indices of 95 to 100 are possible, though it is not likely to remain at or above 100 for long. Tomorrow however, with Highs in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints into the mid 70s, could be in the 100 to 105 region for much of Tuesday afternoon. That could be hazardous for those without adequate cooling facilities. - Unsettled weather with a gradual cool down Wednesday-Friday We will see the upper ridge axis currently centered to our west, build to the east over us and then flatten out by Wednesday. As the upper ridge transitions to a more flat solution, we will see a cold front settle down through the area. The front will become aligned to the upper flow, and nearly stall out for a couple of days. We will see shower/storm chances hold in for Wednesday through Friday with the front nearby and ripples in the upper flow riding along the front. The core of the instability will be south of the front which will be south of the area. This instability will not be far away, and elevated instability will hold on, providing fuel to work with as any wave moves through. The better chance of showers/storms between Wednesday and Thursday will be Wednesday. That is because we will see some subtle upper ridging build in out ahead of another stronger wave that will be moving through on Friday. Can`t rule out some stronger storms with plenty of instability nearby and a decent upper flow. The details with regards to short wave timing and strength remain the most uncertain part of this scenario. One thing we will see with the front sagging south of the area are temperatures not as hot as Tuesday with the heat being pushed south. Friday we will see a better upper wave push through the area, bringing one more good chance of showers and storms to the area before we dry out once again. The thing is with the Friday system is that the latest set of guidance has it coming through a little earlier in the day. If this timing were to stay similar, it would not have much diurnal instability to work with. If it were to slow down a little, it would have the opportunity to intensify a bit before coming in. - Mainly dry and much cooler for the Holiday weekend Once the upper wave pushes through on Friday, we should a mainly dry Labor Day weekend. The system will sweep all of the moisture out of the area, and the heat. 850 mb temps drop down to around the lower teens C. This would support Highs in the upper 70s to around 80. The better thing is the dew points will drop from the 70s on Wednesday, to the 50s by Saturday, and hold there through Monday/Labor Day.
Horrible weather for tomorrow! Bring on Fall and Winter baby!
I have a “good feeling” about tomorrows storms. It is going to be VERY hot and VERY humid in late August… Like mid 90s air temp and mid 70s dew point… we always seem to get our biggest storms in these conditions
This is probably a logical statement… but a lot of “overperformed” events (where we have a slight risk and it should have been moderate) were days where it was extra humid (in the mid-70s dew point). And busted events seem to happen when it doesn’t feel muggy (like 60s dew point). So my point… I think tomorrow will overperform a slight risk. But I could be wrong, we will see!
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2024/08/2-rounds-of-severe-t-storms-possibly-roaming-through-michigan-tuesday-into-wednesday.html
Looks like a below normal Labor day maybe on the way that will be awesome for a fire and Sprite delight…. INDY!
Yep a mini heatwave then right back to the comfy temps and cool nights. Doesn’t get better. I might have to have a bonfire and some sprites as well Indy!
YES!! I’m thinking we are in for a beautiful color transition this Fall!! Bring it onnnn!! INDY
It’s not just hot here. It reached 106.9 in Australia – smashing the all time high temp record for WINTER.
That is ridiculous! I hope our Winters aren’t heading that way!
Only 5 90’s recorded this Summer for GR?? weak…Butt after 6 years on this blog I am still not sure why the hot box few acutely love this weather lol…. BRING back lake Michigan water Temps in the 40’s thank you…INDY
Go to Grand Haven State Park. The water temp there is 72.
Yup, we were at Holland beach yesterday, in the 70’s there to. Maybe if you go out a couple miles and dive down 100 feet it might be in the 40’s?
https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Holland/seatemp#:~:text=Today's%20Holland%20sea%20temperature%20is%2068%20%C2%B0F.&text=Sunny%20with%20pleasantly%20warm%20air,temperatures%20(68%20%C2%B0F).
Last week Grand Haven had water temperatures in the 40’s crazy for August standards…INDY
Called upwelling. Happens several times every year.
https://spectrumnews1.com/wi/green-bay/wisconsin-weather-blog/2020/08/05/wisconsin-weather-blog-upwelling-and-its-impact-on-lake-michigan
Water temps in the low 70’s are pathetic! My pool is 86 degrees!
The Air Quality Advisory is in effect for the following west
Michigan counties:
Allegan, Kent, Muskegon, Ottawa, and Van Buren
Ample sunshine, west to southwest winds, and warm surface and upper-
level temperatures will make conditions conducive to ozone
development on Tuesday. The areas of greatest concern are from
Muskegon to Grand Rapids, then south to the state border. The timing
of the highest ozone concentrations will be during the mid-afternoon
to early evening hours.
..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY…
* WHAT…Heat index values up to 105 expected.
* WHERE…Portions of central, south central, southwest, and west
central Michigan.
* WHEN…From 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday.
* IMPACTS…Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses.
we have 93.6 degrees with a 77-degree dewpoint – feels like 105.5 degrees!
Yuck. As Glenn Frey would say – The Heat Is On.
Heat advisory’s out for the last week of August. It is brutal outside. Feels like Fall?
Nice days…feels like Summer.
This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.
.DAY ONE…Today and Tonight
Showers and storms are possible this afternoon, stronger chance
late tonight. no severe weather is expected.
Heat indices of 95 to 100 will be possible this afternoon and may
be hazardous for those without adequate cooling facilities.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Tuesday through Sunday
Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. Some
storms Tuesday could be strong to severe.
Heat indices of 100 to 105 will be possible Tuesday afternoon and
may be hazardous for those without adequate cooling facilities.
Mini heatwave then right back to the more comfortable temps and cool/chilly nights. I love it!
We will soon be on the road heading up to the Canadian side of the Soo. Today looks to be hot here in Lower Michigan and even in the Soo it looks to be very warm/hot. There is a chance of storms down here the next few days the best chance up there will be late tonight and tomorrow. While it looks to be in the 90’s down here it will be in the upper 80’s today upper 70’s tomorrow and mid 60’s Wednesday at the Soo. I have booked the train ride for Wednesday. https://agawatrain.com/
Slim
Quick shower just went through with some vivid lightning and loud thunder, just added even more humidity to the air. Back to the “humid wave” we seemed to have for most of July. Yuck.