The Heat Increases

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 3

At the time of this post, we have had nothing more than a few sprinkles around the Otsego/Plainwell area.  The last time it rained was May 28th so our dry pattern continues.  Yes, some like the warm dry weather but this has a significant effect on farmers’ crops and those of us who grow veggies and want to keep our flowers and grass alive.  All of this flourishes better with rain rather than well water.

Rainwater contains nitrate – the most bio-available form of nitrogen. … Nitrates, which are made up of nitrogen and oxygen, are formulated by nature for maximum uptake by our plants. Plants typically absorb most of their nitrates from the soil.

Another thing to look at is those who have shallow wells and may run into issues with the water table falling below their well points.  Our well is down to 100 feet so we are well into the aquifer.  I know of some who are only down to less than half of that so as the water table falls they may run into problems pumping water.

We are at the beginning of hurricane season however there is not much to talk about in that area either, we need to have the tropical storms start stirring up. the atmosphere.  The Atlantic has no tropical systems and none are expected for the rest of the week.  The Pacific has a fading tropical system (Blanca) and nothing of note is in the central Pacific.

In spite of some recent rainfall across portions of our region, drought conditions have not changed at all from last week. With much warmer temperatures moving in this weekend along with drying soils, the risk for fire development will be increasing, and that means campfires need to be very closely monitored and should be avoided in very dry areas. This is particularly true in some of our more densely forested regions such as the Manistee National Forest. The Michigan DNR has informed us that the Jack pines in our region have an elevated fire danger at this time. There was a wildfire in Wexford County last week that lasted for many days, and it burned up scotch pine, aspen, red pine and spruce trees.

Long-range outlooks aren’t showing much in the way of change as the heat builds in the Great Lakes region, dry conditions may persist through at least mid-month.


Forecast Discussion

- Rising temps through the weekend

The low level thermal ridge draped across northern zones strengthens
through the weekend.  Temps at 925 mb climb from the low 20 deg C
values Friday to the mid 20`s over the weekend.  Mixing to that
level yields max surface temps in the mid 80s today and 85 to 90 for
the weekend. Lakeshore locations will be lower though.  Heat index
values will not be higher than the air temps...mainly because of the
lack of low level moisture.  That changes early next week as Gulf
moisture streams in from the south.  Surface dewpoints will be
climbing through the 60s...which will bump up the Heat index values
a few degrees.  Max temps may lower a few degrees for Mon to Wed as
compared to the weekend values.  You may not notice it as Heat index
values are expected to be the same...generally in the upper 80s to
near 90.

- Drying out into early next week...elevated fire danger

With the low level moisture lacking...that will limit the potential
for any showers or thunderstorms.  For now we will keep it dry into
the start of Monday...this is when the surface dewpoints start
climbing into the  mid 60s.  Gusty winds occur each afternoon and
min RH values lower into the 30 percent range.  The conditions are
already very dry and will get drier.  All this may lead to an
increase in the fire danger risk.

- Chances for rain increase for the middle of next week

Most models show the back door cold front slipping through the
region either Wed or Thu. The GDPS keeps the area in the warm
sector through the period though. We will continue to reflect the
front making into the CWA for the middle to end of next week.  As
this front meets up with the moist and unstable airmass in our
CWA...scattered storms should develop. Deep layer shear does not
look that impressive...so organized severe weather is not expected
at this time. For now...we will feature scattered thunderstorms
ahead of and along this frontal passage.

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Mookie
Mookie

Bring on the HEAT! In early June? I love it!

Slim

I woke up and looked out the window and wow the road and driveway were wet. I went out and looked at the rain gauge and found out that a whopping 0.01″ of rain had fallen. The overnight low here at my house was 62 and at this time with some sun and clouds it is now 65 here. The bottom line is that the dry conditions continue. We the dry conditions low humidity and high sun angle I would look for temperatures to out perform over the week end.
Slim

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

There were a few “drips” on the way to work at 4:30 this morning, but not enough to register in the rain gauge. 0 hundredths of rain for us.