The feature image is a screen shot of Houghton this morning – if you want to see some snow go north. Had another wet week in SW Michigan – last week was 2.2 inches here at the station bringing us to 3.74 for the month and 53.36 inches for the year. Still no snow on the ground – not seeing any for the rest of the month with the exception of perhaps some light dustings. The CFSv2 models continue this pattern right up to Christmas. Historically the average temperatures for Grand Rapids for December starts out at the upper 30s ending the month at 32°.
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According to the CPC we will see equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and above normal chances of precipitation for December. This could mean days of wet cold rain, sleet, graupel or slushy snow. As I said in my preliminary winter forecast my main fear for the early winter would be ice storms with the pattern we remain stuck in with the rain/snow line being so close to the state of Michigan. There are still guesses that the pattern will bring the arctic air in sometime in January with our coldest month being February – we will see if this holds true.
This will be a much better week for the deer hunters with mainly dry conditions.
Strong low pressure will move away from the Great Lakes today into eastern Canada. Cold winds blowing over Lake Michigan will continue to produce snow showers through much of the day before ending late this afternoon and evening. Little to no snow accumulation is expected, but a dusting is certainly possible.
Normal highs for this time of year are in the middle 40s and many areas will remain below the freezing mark all day. Dry weather is expected tonight and Monday as southerly winds increase ahead of a clipper system passing well off to our north. The clipper will push a cold front through our area on Tuesday bringing small chances for precipitation. After highs back in the 40s for Monday and Tuesday we cool back into the 30s behind the front for Wednesday.
A deep upper trough will quickly move across the state Tuesday night into Wednesday. H8 temps briefly fall to around -12c behind the trough. There isn`t a lot of moisture with this system and we don`t expect much in the way of lake effect, but we added a low chance pop to the model solutions that didn`t have any.
We expect dry weather Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day, so travel conditions across southwest Lower Michigan should be good during that time. Toward the end of the week, however, a stronger cold front may bring mixed precipitation to the region.
The cold front is progd to move across the lake Friday night. But, similar to the current situation, boundary layer moisture is on the low side. H8 temps fall to around -12c, so there should be enough instability over the lake to create some snow showers, but the lake of deep moisture will preclude any appreciable accumulations. Highs will be mostly in the 30s through the period.
Regions #5 and #6 look great! You heard it here first!
http://firsthandweather.com/3396/2017-18-winter-outlook/
All trends and models continue to give West MI a great winter for SNOW lovers! It should be a Rock n Roll party by mid to late December! Even the CPC is giving West Mi plenty of snow and cold chances! INCREDIBLE!
Your outlook for the upcoming weather for the rest of the year is looking eerily similar to the past several years Michael. It seems this pattern would have to break sometime, but the big money question is when? Next year? 2019? We seem to be stuck in a rut. A very wet and muddy rut! This will be Winter #3 with our new snow blower, and I still only have barely 3 hours total of use on it yet. At this rate it won’t need a oil change till about 2022!
I like to look at the bright side. While you spent money on the blower if it keeps the snow away it is money well spent. I did my part 1. I also bought a new snow blower two winters ago 2. last year I bought an 4WD truck and 3. this year I got a AWD SUV for my wife so all should be good for a 3rd year in a row of little snow. Some one else will have to chip in for next winter.
Slim