Thanksgiving Forecast

Yesterday we reached a high of 40° after a morning low of 29°.  Today we are giving you the Thanksgiving forecast for those of you who are traveling.

NWS Gaylord

NWS Marquette

NWS Detroit

NWS Grand Rapids

Weather History

1930: What a difference a week makes. After record highs in the 70s only a week before, temperatures plunge to record low levels with high temperatures only around 15 degrees during the day.

1989: Severe weather strikes Lower Michigan with downburst winds and tornadoes. A tornado caused a quarter million dollars of damage as it cut a six-mile path south of Portland in Ionia County. Another tornado caused minor damage over a three-mile path south of Durand in Shiawassee County.

On November 27, 1995, a snowstorm hit the Saginaw Valley and continued into the early morning hours of November 28. The storm left Saginaw with 11.1 inches of snow, on top of an already cold and snowy month. Saginaw received 23.0 inches of snow! This made November 1995 the snowiest November in Saginaw history and also the 16th snowiest month of all time in Saginaw. Remarkably, November 1995 is the only November to appear in the top 20 monthly snowfalls for Saginaw, Flint, or Detroit.

Also on November 27, 1989, an F1 tornado hit Shiawassee County at 6:45 PM. Talk about a late tornado for the year!

NWS Forecast GRR

Forecast Discussion

- Tranquil weather through tonight into Thursday

Tranquil wx will continue today with partly sunny skies and
seasonable temps. A consensus blend of latest high res short range
guidance continues to show that pcpn associated with the low
pressure system which will eventually move across the TN valley
region will stay south to southeast of our area later today
through tonight.

Fairly quiet wx will continue for the Thanksgiving holiday. A few
light lake effect snow showers will begin to develop as h8 temps
fall to around -9 to -10 C in the afternoon yielding delta t/s in
the upper teens with brisk wnw flow. Only a few tenths of an inch
of snow accumulation are expected with no significant impacts to
travel through Thursday afternoon.

- Cold northwest flow regime with lake effect snows into next week

High confidence in the overall pattern through next week with
persistent upper troughing across eastern Canada extending into the
NE CONUS. Cyclonic flow and occasional shortwave troughs progressing
through the mean flow will result in lake effect snow showers of
various intensity from Friday through early next week.

Looking at inversion heights in the GFS soundings, it appears the
best chance for heavier lake effect snow showers will be on Friday
and again late Sunday into Monday with inversion heights above the
DGZ as shortwave troughs move through. The 850 mb temperatures are
about minus 12C on Friday and similarly cold into Monday.

Low to medium confidence in the details of a clipper bringing some
light synoptic and/or lake enhanced snows on Tuesday into Wednesday,
but it now appears more likely the cold northwest flow regime
persists through the week as the polar jet remains over or just
south of the Great Lakes.