We have some rain moving in this morning thanks to a warm front pushing through the state. We will see occasional showers and thunderstorms and very warm temperatures the next few days. The highest coverage of storms is expected to be Monday evening into Monday night. A few of these storms may become severe. High temperatures will reach into the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday and Monday. The SPC has us in the slight risk area for severe weather mainly tomorrow evening and overnight.
Yesterday’s high was 74° with a low of 56°. We have a warm 66° at 6 am this morning.
The CPC continues guessing above-normal temps for the rest of October.
Here is the NWS rainfall map depiction of how much rain fell from 10 am Thursday through 10 am Saturday.
- Convection this AM then clearing and warmer Typical of a warm front, the convection is over preforming compared to recent model of forecasts early this morning. Most areas in our CWA will see measurable rain between now and mid morning today. There is strong warm advection at low to mid levels this morning over our area ahead of the surface warm front. We have decent mid level instability (1000 to 1500 j/kg of elevated cape) to work with. Precipitable water increases from around an inch to around one and a half inches as the warm front moves through the area. The 850 LI index falls to near -5c as just ahead of the warm front over our area. Already there are at at least 3 lines of showers (parallel bands of convection) heading into our CWA and new line of thunderstorms has just formed off shore of MKG to BIV. All of this is moving east and will cross our CWA between now and mid morning. I do not see any real severe threat as the convection is elevated and is well ahead of the surface warm front. Rainfall amounts should not be excessive but a quick 1/4 to 1/2 inch is possible from the stronger storms. Some small hail is possible to as there is enough cape in the -10 to -30 range with this convection. Once the warm front clears the area we should have enough subsidence to clear the skies and result much warmer temperatures. Most areas near and south of Route 10 should get close to or just above 80 today. Well I have to admit our northwest CWA may have a risk of storms later this afternoon into this evening as the cold front that trails the initial surface storm heading into Southest Ontario will get close enough to that area that convection is possible. I am thinking through it will mostly stay north and west of our CWA. Tonight as the system to our south continues to develop there should be enough mid level ridge building in front of that system to result in dry weather over the entire CWA. It will remain warmer than normal too. - Fall storm brings severe risk Monday evening As we have been writing about all week, the upper trough to our west has two systems embedded in it. The first one is what has created the warm front convection this morning. The second one, which is currently over Utah (06z) will deepens and close off a rather impressive upper low by Monday morning over MO. This significantly increases the mid and upper level heights over us by mid morning Monday. That should keep us dry, breezy and warm into midday Monday (Columbus Day). The system goes negative tilt at upper levels as it moves into Michigan during the evening. The results in strong FGEN, we have decent coupling of surface convergence and upper divergence, the upper jet core crosses our CWA during the evening and MU capes push 3350 j/kg. This does create decent deep layer shear too (crossing low and upper level jets). Clearly we would get organized storms as this system moves into the area. Some could have damaging winds and large hail. There is some question as to the timing of this with the Hi Res models but given the upper jet comes into our area by early evening, I am thinking late afternoon into early evening for the strong convection. Once that comes through, we will have lingering light rain showers into mid afternoon Tuesday as the system does get seriously wrapped up as it moves through this area. It does lack real cold air so that will keep surface winds from getting to strong on Tuesday. Even so Tuesday should be the coolest day in nearly a week. - Pleasant weather mid week As I have been writing for over a week now, we have a larger and stronger upper trough to our west yet. That does finally move east enough by mid week to close off upper lows in central Canada and the Southwest CONUS. That of course builds our eastern upper ridge back in full force by Wednesday. So at least for Wednesday that upper ridge should provide some day time sunshine and warm temperatures. - Next system late in week brings October temps by weekend Of course the nice weather will not last long as that upper level storm gets "kicked" out of the southwestern CONUS by yet another Pacific system coming on shore. This system is a little more glitchy than the one we had Friday and the one today and the one on Monday night. That is because the next upstream to that system has to close of wavelength to the one it is kicking out. The interaction of those two storms is unusually not handled well by the models. At some point from Thursday into Friday we will get more showers but it will stay warm yet. It will not get cooler until that trail Pacific system comes into the area. This is more in the Saturday time frame. I would expect some showers with that too. The bottom line to all of this is it may well rain at least a little bit and some days quiet a bit, just about every day this week. Only Wednesday is looking dry at this point. Temperature remain above normal till around the Saturday time frame, then the get close to normal but not colder than normal.