Congrats to my Wolverines last night (sorry Mark) who completely disassembled the Spartans to the tune of 49-0. Go Blue!
Next up, the woolly bear caterpillar as a predictor of winter weather. I have seen a few in the number two graphic giving us a moderate winter. If we go by the number of walnuts on the ground this year the forecast would be the same. Not so sure about that especially with temperatures predicted to be in the upper 60s to low 70s this week. Thanks to Slim for his historical data yesterday on strong El Nino winters.
Forecast
U.S.A and Global Events for October 22nd:
1884: A drought that began in August, extended through September, and continued until the last week of October brought hardship to Northern, Central, and Eastern Alabama. The 22nd was the first day of general showers, and gentle rains fell from the 26th to the 29th.
1997: Game 4 of the World Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Florida Marlins was the coldest game in World Series history. The official game-time temperature was 38 degrees at Jacobs Field in Cleveland. Wind chills as low as 18 degrees were reported during the game.
1998: Tropical Depression Thirteen formed on October 22 over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. By the 24th, this tropical depression became Hurricane Mitch. This hurricane would rapidly intensify over the next two days, reaching Category 5 strength on the 26th. Hurricane Mitch would end up being the second deadliest hurricane in the history of the Atlantic Ocean.
Forecast Discussion
We are looking at two totally different days in the short term for today and Monday. Today will be much drier than yesterday with some breaks in the clouds, with Monday seeing a return to lots of clouds and some rain. The upper trough that has been over the area since Thursday bringing rain at times is in the process of pushing east after the last couple of short waves moved through yesterday and last evening. The upper jet core will move east, and bring anti- cyclonic flow aloft back into the area. The air mass that has moved in is quite chilly with 850 mb temps around -3C this morning. This would normally help to foster lake effect clouds and showers. There continue to be many factors limiting the lake effect potential here, including flow from the North keeping any over the lake, and inversion heights quite low with ridging building in. The net effect on our sensible weather should be a decent amount of flat cumulus development over the land areas, supporting a generally partly sunny day. We should stay dry at all areas through sunrise on Monday, with rain chances increasing through the day. High pressure at the sfc will start out in place early on. Then we will see the approach of a short wave through the day from west to east. This wave and the associated rain will not cause much in the way of issues as the moisture return ahead of the wave is quite limited. There is a southern flow, but it just isn`t ideal for bringing a good deal for heavier rain with limited Gulf moisture. A western CONUS trough with ridging across the Appalachians and a surface boundary/baroclinic zone in between will be the pattern to begin the period on Monday night and Tuesday. The western trough moves east during the week with increasing chances for rain by the end of the week. Initial warm advection showers across the northern zones early in the period expand south and east as a front moves through later Wednesday. The front moves back north on Thursday as surface cyclogenesis occurs along the baroclinic zone. The unsettled weather continues into the weekend with yet another round of cyclogenesis as the longwave trough finally shifts eastward.
A moderate winter? That sounds about right! The RDB predicts near to slightly above temps and snowfall! Rock n roll will never die!!
While it’s a long ways out and subject to change, my phone shows AM rain and snow showers on Halloween.
It’s a sure bet. Halloween is always windy, wet, and cold. We stopped our big display for the neighborhood years ago…just not worth the effort under miserable conditions.
What? That is not what the warm weather fanatics said a few days ago? Incredible!
U of M looks very good! I wonder if they will end up bowl ineligible due to NCAA violations?
Last night was the first time MSU was shut out at home since 1985 which was a 31-0 win for Michigan.
Quite a bit of rain again yesterday at my house. Fall colors are starting to look much better.
My car thermometer said 33 on the way to get coffee this morning. I think it was reading a bit low, but definitely the coolest here so far this season.
Also congrats to UM! I went to msu so I’m technically a spartan, but I have respect for their program
I turned it off at 21-0. I had seen enough. 🤮. I’m just waiting for hoops season at this point.
The leaves have really started to turn during the past week. Our maple out back is almost completely red.
The official H/L yesterday was 46/37. That 46 was the coldest high since May 2nd There was 0.35” of rain fall, no snow fall. The day had 23 HDD’s there was just 4% of possible sunshine. The highest wind gust was 19 MPH out of the N For today the average H/L is 58/40 the record high of 82 was set in 1953 and 1979. The record low of 23 was set in 1944. The record rain fall of 1.40” fell in 1929 and the record snow fall of 0.9” fell in 1987. Last year the H/L was 75/52.
Slim
We are now 21 days into October 2023 and so far the mean temperature of 53.9 is +0.5. The high for the month will be 86 and so far the low is just 37. There has been 4.25” of rain fall that is +1.53 for the season GRR is now at 31.92 that is a departure of -0.60. There has been no snowfall so far. At the current time it is 36 and clear here in MBY The last reading at GRR it was clear with 38.
Slim