We have a very comfortable 55° at 5:30 this morning.
Yesterday we reached 89° with comfortable humidity, the morning low was 60°.
This will be our last significantly hotter than normal day for next week or so. Normal high temps this time of year are in the upper 60s to around 70. Highs away from the lakeshore will reach the upper 80s. Winds will be from the south at around 10 mph. Dewpoints will be in the low to mid-50s. We have gone seven straight days without precipitation.
At this point, it appears Saturday will be our best chance of rain with a 50/50% chance here in SW Michigan. Chances increase to 70% on the east side of the state and 60% north of Grand Rapids.
- Dry Today, Rain Chances Return Mainly on Saturday No changes to our dry and warm forecast for today. Yet another day of record or near-record high temperatures is forecast with most locations reaching the 85 to 90 degree range to finish off a pretty remarkable week of early to mid May warmth across Lower Michigan. Skies will gradually become mostly cloudy on Saturday as a cold front moves into the region. 00z HREF guidance is indicating SBCAPE building into the 1000-1500 J/kg range near and east of US 131 Saturday afternoon. Hourly QPF probabilities for measurable rainfall (0.01" or greater) are highest east of US 131 from midday on. The 850 mb and surface winds turn westerly off the lake during the morning which will help push a more stable airmass into the lakeshore region. As a result, we have adjusted POPs down across the lakeshore for Saturday as the greatest odds for showers and a few storms will be inland, especially after 16z. Any thunderstorms that develop are not expected to reach severe levels. Could be some small hail and locally gusty winds where storms are strongest, but given a dearth of any shear to speak of, storm organization will be sorely lacking and they will not be moving very fast. So, isolated instances of 0.50"-1.00" or more of rain is possible. For Sunday, the left exit region of the upper level jet will afford upper divergence across northern IL, northern IN, and far southern/SE Lower MI. Also, the upper trough axis will be moving through. Given low (or zero) instability present, mainly showers would be generated and the greatest odds look to be near and south of I-94. The most likely region for thunderstorms would be east of I-69 where some MUCAPE is present. Isolated or widely scattered showers are possible mainly east of US 131 on Monday but many areas should stay dry. - Likely Dry Tuesday and Possibly Wednesday, But Will Rain Return? The upper level pattern will go through an adjustment with falling mid level heights and much colder 850 mb temperatures moving in early next week. However, medium range and ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement that moderating temperatures will commence mid to late week. It is looking like 70s and possibly 80s could return toward the latter half of next week. We`re looking at a lot of variation in ensemble and deterministic guidance that far out, but the potential is there for a warm and wet pattern to set up.