Yesterday’s high was 67°, and the morning low was 31°. At 5:30 a.m., the temperature is currently 33 °.
This fall (so far) will be known for its sunny and dry conditions in SW Michigan. Based on the various model data for the next eight or nine days, not much rain is expected. We have had 3.01 inches so far this fall in Otsego. This has been great weather for the farmers harvesting corn and soybeans.
Dry weather is forecast from today through early next week (Tuesday). The next chance for rain will come with a cold frontal passage on Tuesday night/Wednesday of next week. A steady warming trend will occur with highs in the 60s today, warming into the 70s on Sunday, and pushing well into the 70s on Monday. Cooler weather is expected mid-next week with highs in the 50s.
Weather History
1834: One of the first recorded tornadoes in Michigan strikes Kalamazoo, damaging several homes and businesses.
1972: It is an early taste of winter as a snowstorm hits Lower Michigan. The storm drops 4.6 inches of snow at Muskegon, the heaviest snow on record for so early in the season there.
1976: A cold snap drops the temperature at Grand Rapids to 19 degrees for an early season record.
2007: A tornado with top winds estimated at 130 mph strikes Williamston in Ingham County. Two people are killed when their mobile home is demolished. Several other homes are heavily damaged.
On October 18, 2007, a strong and potent storm in the Upper Great Lakes drove a cold front through Lower Michigan during the evening and overnight hours on October 18th and 19th. The atmosphere ahead of the cold front was very warm, moist, and unstable. These conditions combined with the strong storm to produce a late-season and late-night tornado outbreak. Five tornadoes were confirmed in Southeast Michigan in Shiawassee (EF1 near Perry), Genesee (EF0 in Thetford Township), Tuscola (two EF1s near Millington and near Deford), and Huron (EF1 near Port Hope) Counties. Only a couple of minor injuries were reported. Total property damages were estimated around $1.5M.
Also on October 18, 1952, the overnight temperature dropped to 22 degrees in Flint, which is the record-low temperature for the day. Curiously enough, the very next year, 1953, the daytime temperature rose to 82 degrees, setting the record high temperature for the day!
NWS Forecast
Forecast Discussion
- Fair weather with moderating temps through the weekend High pressure will continue to dominate the wx today through Saturday. IR sat trends in conjunction with 00Z HREF cloud progs suggest skies will remain clear today and southerly winds will help to boost high temps into the low to mid 60s after a cool start to the day. A consensus of short term guidance time height rh progs and 00Z HREF guidance all suggest that skies will remain mostly clear tonight and Saturday. High temps tomorrow will be several degrees milder than today given the persistent southerly flow waa regime and ample sun. - Limited chances for rain confined to Tuesday Night and Wednesday There is a high confidence in dry weather persisting from today and Saturday through Sunday and into early next week. One change in the models tonight is that last night`s model runs indicated chances for rain on Tuesday. That has now been pushed back into Tuesday night. The only chances for rain now come Tuesday night and Wednesday, which are the only forecast periods in the 7 day forecast with rain. The Tuesday rain chances were driven by a stronger shortwave that was in last night`s models. Tonight`s runs show a weaker more open wave moving through now. Moisture is meager in tonight`s model runs primarily confined to Tuesday night and Wednesday. A stronger trough during this time frame moves through in northwest flow out of the Northern Plains and Canada. To put our rain chances in perspective though, 7 day QPF from WPC is a meager trace to 0.10 inches. Suffice it to say our mainly dry weather will stay that way. - Temperatures well above normal expected Saturday through Tuesday Temperatures this time of year can be a roller coaster and that is indeed the case in the 7 day forecast. The ride up will be steady and sustained, warming a bit each day between today and Monday. Highs in the 60s today will warm into the 70s area wide on Sunday and likely peak on Monday well into the 70s. In fact, the GFS MOS guidance for GRR on Monday has a high of 81 degrees. The normal high on Monday at GRR is 58, so 23 degrees above normal! The record high at GRR Monday is 85. We are certainly in a warm and dry pattern into Tuesday. Lower 70s are likely on Tuesday with more in the way of cloud cover. A cold frontal passage Wednesday morning will bring back a dose of reality and a fall that all roller coasters have. By Thursday high temperatures will be back in the 50s. Monday evening 850mb temperatures peak at +16C overhead. By Wednesday evening we plunge to -2C in the GFS.
I’m in Austin and it’s very dry and muted looking outside. They just had 5 months of 90s/100s… definitely not as photogenic as Michigan. Hope you are all enjoying the nice fall!
Also I could change my name to “Nathan (Austin TX)” temporarily, but there isn’t much weather to report so I don’t think the location is too critical
I have family that live on Lake Travis. Have fun!
Looks like a great weekend…will spend it storing/tarping all the outdoor “stuff”.
80 degrees coming up? Wow!
We had some things to do in Bay City yesterday so we took a road trip. Took the long way by going up to Big Rapids and then across M 20. I have to say the color is some of the best in a long time on that trip. The overnight low so far here in MBY is 33 officially it has yet to reach 32 or lower at Grand Rapids the next week looks to stay warm so the 1st night below 32 will be late this year.
Slim
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 62/33 there was no rainfall and the sun was out 100% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 60/42 the record high of 82 was set in 1910,1938 and 1950. The coldest high of 35 was set in1930 the record low of 19 was set in 1976 the warmest low of 63 was set in 2007. The most rainfall of 1.32” fell in 1923 the most snow fall of 0.9” fell in 1972. Last year the H/L was 64/38.
Slim