Keep in mind summer officially ends on September 22nd so we can’t complain about the above normal temperatures. The issue is the lack of rainfall in Michigan due to a blocking pattern in Ontario holding back the moisture. At my station, we have had only .11 of an inch so far for September and .28 of an inch since August 18th. I won’t be surprised if the Drought Center has us as abnormally dry on their Thursday report. Our next shot of rainfall will be this weekend from the remnants of Tropical storm Francine.
TS Francine’s probable path
Yesterday’s high in Otsego was 77° and low low was 52°. Humidity was low and the sunshine was abundant all day.
Weather History
1917: High temperatures were only in the middle 50s as cool and cloudy conditions prevailed.
1931: A record high of 94 degrees was set at Grand Rapids, contributing to the warmest September on record there.
1943: The USS Grand Rapids is launched from Superior, Wisconsin. The weather in Grand Rapids, Michigan is cool with a low of 39 degrees. The ship was outfitted to take weather observations but was damaged by a hurricane as it sailed towards Bermuda. It was repaired and provided vital weather observations in the North Atlantic through the end of World War Two.
1946: A weak tornado hit near Albion in Calhoun County around 730 AM, with damage limited to several downed trees.
On September 10, 2017, Flint tied the record low of 36 degrees last reached in 1969. This was the 3rd day of reaching or exceeding record lows in the first 10 days of September.
On September 10, 2002, a strong cold front moved through eastern Michigan during the afternoon. Due to the drought conditions that year, the thunderstorms resemble those of the high plains with high cloud bases, less rainfall, and strong winds. Hundreds of power outages were blamed on these thunderstorms. The more widespread tree damage in eastern Michigan occurred across portions of Shiawassee, Huron, and Livingston counties.
September 10 Storm – Radarscope Archive
Also on September 10, 1950, a record 6.04 inches of rain fell in Flint. The yearly precipitation average in Flint is 24.44 inches. In one day, Flint received nearly a quarter of its yearly precipitation average!
NWS Forecast
Forecast Discussion
- Mainly dry with increasingly warmer temperatures We have maintained a dry forecast through Wednesday (and beyond). There is a non-zero chance of a few sprinkles tonight across Central Lower. High pressure is directly overhead this morning. This is leading to very light winds and some fog development. This is the time of the year for better fog potential, especially under light winds, with a cooler air mass, longer nights, and a relatively warm ground. The fog will mix out quickly once the sun comes up, and mostly sunny skies will ensue. Tonight is the non-zero chance of a few sprinkles, but we will ride a silent 10 chance with no mention of rain chances. There will be a weak short wave translating across the northern portion of the Great Lakes. Forecast soundings/moisture profiles show no moisture really under 10k ft agl. That is a lot of drier air to overcome for very little moisture trying to reach the ground. Once the short wave moves by before Wednesday morning, we will see the upper ridge build a bit again just west of the area. This means building subsidence once again. The flow will be from a general southerly flow. The flow will not really have much moisture with it as it will be coming from the SE from over the Appalachian Mountains in a downsloping fashion. - Low confidence in tropical moisture arriving end of the week Model agreement is good on flat upper ridging prevailing this week. The big wild card is the tropical cyclone moving northeast out of the Gulf and into southern Illinois by Friday. There are indications that the northward progress of the low will be impeded by a blocking high to the northeast of Lower Michigan. Sensible weather will feature dry weather with above normal temperatures through Friday. The dry spell could be broken by Saturday as the plume of tropical moisture surges northward. The blended model forecast has slowed down since yesterday and now brings low chance POPs in late Saturday and lingering into early next week in the blocking pattern.
This is what has changed recently due to global warming. Longer summers! Look at that extended forecast. Wow.
ECMWF forecast just released just a few days ago, calls for a strong positive NAO over Winter 2024/2025. That would lead to a warmer than average winter. Add that on top of global warming we very well could have a very mild (again) winter coming up.
Slim
Dense fog advisory just to our east. I think we could’ve been included. The fog is thick in spots around these parts.
The official H/L yesterday was 78/57 there was no rainfall, the sun was out 96% of the time. The highest wind gust was 27 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 76/55 the record high of 94 was set in 1931 and 2013 the coldest high of 56 was set in 1940 and 1917. The record low of 36 was set in 1917 and 1969 the warmest low of 77 was set in 2013. The most rainfall of 2.76” fell in 1986.
The overnight low and current temperature here in MBY is 52.
Slim