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Summer Returns

Yesterday, the high temperature was 79°, and the low was 39°, with clear skies once again. Our last rain was on October 12th and 13th, the only two days this month when we had measurable precipitation.  There have been 3.01 inches of rain so far this fall in Otsego.

Warm and dry weather continues through the start of the week. Some clouds and a few showers return for midweek, but nothing significant is expected. Temperatures in the 70s will drop down to more typical temperatures in the 50s by late in the week as a cold front moves through Lower Michigan midweek.

Temperatures will be mainly above normal into early November with near-normal rainfall.


Weather History

1974: It is one of the coldest mornings on record in western Lower Michigan with temperatures falling into the teens. Grand Rapids falls to 18 degrees, the lowest October temperature on record.

On October 21, 1974, a record low of 17 degrees was reached in Detroit.


NWS Forecast

Today
Sunny, with a high near 79. West southwest wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low of around 50. South southwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. South wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Tuesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers before 2 am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. South wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. West northwest wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 33.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 58.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers after 2 am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.
Friday
A chance of showers before 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 63.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 39.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 57.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 35.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.

Forecast Discussion

- Continued dry and warm through most of Tuesday

We remain under the influence of upper ridging that extends from the
Mid-Mississippi River Valley and to the NW over the Dakotas. The
position of the ridge axis has us under the confluent zone with
subsidence downstream of the ridge. This means that we will see
another mostly sunny and warm day. The flow in the lower levels is a
return flow, advecting warmer temperatures in from the west. 850 mb
temperatures are forecast to reach the mid teens C, which will
support highs easily in the mid-upper 70s once again.

Most of Tuesday will see similar conditions, except with increasing
clouds in the afternoon and a chance of a few light rain showers for
western areas. The upper low over Colorado this morning providing
the convection out there, will be making its way toward our area
late Tuesday afternoon. This upper low is forecast to be dampening
out significantly by the time it approaches the area.

What we will see is a 40 knot low level jet with the low focusing a
little bit of moisture convergence over the area late Tuesday
afternoon. We are not expecting much with this, but it will be just
enough to carry a 20-30 pop for western areas 21-00z.

- Chances for Rain Tues Night/Wed and again Thurs Night/Fri

Two chances for rain exist in the 7 day forecast. The first occurs
with a cold frontal passage Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture
is very meager with this system and we continue to expect anywhere
from no rain/trace amounts to possibly a few hundredths of an inch.
In portions of the south (I-94) we have a dry forecast while Central
Lower Michigan has a 40 pct chance at the highest. Despite the upper
wave being rather sharp, it will be moving rather quickly and will
not have moisture of much consequence to work with.

A better chance for rain exists Thursday night into Friday with
another cold frontal passage. We have 40-60 pct chances for rain in
the forecast as there will be better moisture to work with. This
front will also be moving rather quickly. All areas should at least
see some measurable rain, but it will again be light. Rainfall
amounts will range from a few hundredths to around a quarter of an
inch. We have been dry lately and much of the next 7 days will
remain that way.

- Up and Down Temperatures in the Wed through Sat Time Frame

As is typical in the midwest/Great Lakes in the transition seasons,
spring and fall, wide variations in temperature occur. This 7 day
forecast will see a bit of a roller coaster ride once again as today
will be the peak of the warmth falling off to cold readings
Wednesday night into Thursday. We now have low temperatures dipping
into the 20s Wednesday night (Central Lower MI) after highs today
that will push to near 80. Highs on Thursday only rebound into the
50s after the chilly morning lows. We warm back into the 60s on
Friday before falling back into the 50s over the weekend. Normal
highs by early next week cool into the middle 50s as a frame of
reference.
newest oldest
Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Yep…a fine October.

Mookie
Mookie

And people on here tried to tell me weather in October in Michigan is bad LOL

Best weather in the country from May to at least Mid October!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

I personally think this is the best time of year for “above average” temperatures. Mid-October to mid-November. Hope you are all enjoying it!

Slim

I did some yard work yesterday and boy I noticed a lot and I mean a lot of Boxelder bugs and Ladybugs they must be trying to find a place to go for the winter.
Slim

*SS*
*SS*

Yes. Lady bugs are horrible!! We had to stop working outside…we spent more time swatting them away.

Slim

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 75/43 there was no rainfall, the sun was out 100% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 58/41 the record high of 85 was set in 1953 the coldest high of 37 was set in 1925. The record low of 18 was set in 1974 the warmest low was a warm 72 in 1979. The most rainfall of 2.13” fell in 1933 the most snowfall of 1.1” fell in 1976. Last year the H/L was 46/37 and there was 0.35” of rainfall.
Slim

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

No complaints about this autumn thus far. Very favorable weather. Not much else to say. Have a great day, friends.

Slim

The weather has been great the color is very good and it has been dry so no need to cut the grass
Slim