We have doubled our rainfall total from last month (here at the station) we are now at 1.29 inches with more rain on the way. You can see that discussion and forecast on the Michigan Forecast page. Below is the five day forecast for Allegan County – this is generated by my weather station so we we have to see how accurate this tends to be.
I am still not seeing any cold air or frost in the forecast through the 20th and perhaps beyond. I am still thinking we may have to wait until around Thanksgiving for any Arctic outbreaks, but this is just a guess.
The GFS give us more decent rain mid week ranging from .50 to close to an inch. The days are definitely getting shorter – the sunsets at 7:12 and sunrise is 7:47 tomorrow. We move our clocks back on November 5th so it will get dark around 5:30.
The remnants of Hurricane Nate will brush by the southeastern corner of Michigan and is projected to lift northeast into the prevailing southwest mid level flow over the next 24 hours.
Northward advection of the attendant tropical moisture plume will bring this high pwat environment to their doorstep by this evening. Southeast sections of lower Michigan will reside within the northwest expanse of this moisture plume, with an accompanying stripe of higher mid level dynamics/upper jet forcing.
This continues to support a modest precipitation mention – mainly highlighting points southeast of a Howell to Port Huron line overnight through Monday morning. The sharp moisture gradient may leave points from Flint northwest simply under a period of mid cloud, with a quick shift back toward a mostly clear condition already by Monday morning. Progressive exit of this moisture allows for a steady clearing trend from northwest to southeast on Monday.
Today was a beautiful Fall day! A great day to get out & take the dog for a walk. Yesterday early evening the wind became gusty & it poured out.
Sunny and 69° here. I received 0.53″ of rain last night.
slim