Summer!

Welcome to the official first day of summer which will be ushered in by heat and humidity. Yesterday’s high was 86° with low dewpoints and the low was 59°.

It will be a hot and humid day across Southwest Lower Michigan with highs topping out in the 90s in many areas. Humidity will be on the rise which will push heat index values toward 100 degrees. Skies will be mostly sunny with southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph.  We have a heat advisory today from 10 am to 10 pm.  There is also an air quality alert for Mason, Oceana, Muskegon, Ottawa, Kent, Allegan and Van Buren counties.


During summer in Michigan, it’s not just the heat but the combination of heat and humidity that can wear a body down. Heat Index and Dew Point are numbers to look for to account for the humidity. Heat Index is a “feels like” temperature to your body in the shade: typically above 95 degrees it signals caution, and between 105 and 110 degrees it signals danger. Dew Point is a measure of how much water vapor is in the air: when it’s in the 40s or 50s it’s dry or comfortable, and when it’s in the 60s or 70s it’s more humid, sticky, or muggy.

Forecast Discussion

…Hot today, slight chance of storms tonight…

An upper ridge axis extends from Hudson Bay south to Louisiana. We
are directly under it and will experience the heat that summer
ridges typically deliver. H8 temps around 22c will translate to
surface temperatures in the lower to mid-90s today. Couple that with
dewpoints in the mid-60s and heat indices will be close to 100.
Because of that, we`re issuing a Heat Advisory for the entire CWA.

A cold front will try to make it through the cwa tonight. The high
temperatures and abundant low-level moisture will create quite a bit
of instability. MUCAPE at 03z is still around 3k j/kg over the west
central cwa. Bulk shear isn`t very high…25-30 kts north of
Muskegon at that time, but maybe enough for a storm to organize a
bit. SPC has upgraded the northwest CWA to a marginal risk for
storms that develop along the cold front. CAMS show little (but not
zero) support for storms this evening…and what little they do
show, diminishes with time overnight.

The cold front will knock temperatures down around 10 degrees by
Wednesday; same for dewpoints. So, a bit more comfortable. The heat
will start to build again toward the end of the week as temperatures
climb to around 90.

…Better chance of rain late in the weekend…

A stronger short wave will push another cold front through the state
Sunday. Chances of showers/storms are higher with this system than
the front tonight. Sunday looks like a favored time frame for
precipitation and is supported by the ECMWF ensemble mean. The
Sunday cold front may push highs back into the 70s next Monday.

 

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Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I see Lansing hit a record of 98. 99 here in the west suburbs. 100 at Chicago Midway airport. Nice breeze but it’s so hot, it really doesn’t help.

Slim

It is 95 here at my house and the official reading at Grand Rapids is now 94. It still looks like after this weeks hot/very warm temperatures that we should slide back into a cooler but dry pattern to end June and the start of July.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
and then
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
Slim

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Currently 96 here

Slim

Most locations away from Lake Michigan are now at 90 or better.
Slim

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

We’re outside of Chicago where our daughter will be attending college this fall. 94 before noon here. HOT!

Mookie
Mookie

Here comes the heat again! The rest of June looks very warm. It should be our second warm month in a row.

Slim

By the way after we get past the above average temperatures of this week it now looks like cool down is in store.
ttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
and that could last for a while.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
But as you can see it looks to stay dry and if that is the case there can be some big temperature swings.
Slim

Slim

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 87/63 there was no rain fall and there was 73% of possible sunshine. The state high yesterday was way up in the UP at both Houghton and Iron Mountain where the high reached 98. At Houghton that 98 was the 2nd warmest ever reported in the month of June there. Here at my house the overnight low was 61 the official overnight low at GRR was 68. At the current time it is clear and 73 here and 75 at GRR. For today the average H/L is 81/60 the record high of… Read more »