Yesterday was a pleasant first day of met spring. Our high was 45° and the low was 27° in Otsego. Our high for the winter months was on 12/16/21 with 64°, the low was on 2/13/22 with -3.5°.
After some morning sun to start the day, it will become cloudy by noon. Rain and snow showers will move in for the afternoon. The precipitation will diminish late this afternoon into the early evening hours. High temperatures today ranging from the mid-30s to the low 40’s are expected for Southwest Lower MI.
February Summary
Winter Summary
Forecast Discussion
- Weak clipper system today - A weak clipper system moving in from the NW will cause light snow to develop over our nw fcst area by midday. Light pcpn will overspread most of our area this aftn. Thermal profiles w/height and low level critical thickness tools suggest p-type will be snow north of I-96 with up to around an inch of accumulation possible across our far nw fcst area. A light rain/light snow mix is expected in the vicinity of I-96 but with minimal impacts given temps into the upper 30s to lower 40s this aftn. Very little to no snow is expected south of I-96 where pcpn type will mainly be light rain/drizzle with an unsaturated dgz and milder thermal profiles w/height. A consensus of latest high res guidance suggests pcpn will move out of our area quickly late this aftn/eve. - Stronger system this weekend - Light warm air advection pcpn will develop Friday night into Saturday due to isentropic upglide north of the warm front. A brief period of light freezing rain is possible before thermal profiles moderate. The strong south winds will help to boost max temps into the 50s across much of our area by mid to late Saturday afternoon. We expect around a half an inch to inch of rainfall most of which will come late Saturday/Saturday night. Isolated convection is also possible in this time frame as weak instability develops ahead of the cold front. - Potential system Sunday night/Monday - Another low pressure system will move ne from the Arklatex region through the OH valley region. Latest deterministic ecmwf/ukmet guidance suggest pcpn may clip our south/se fcst area with p-type mainly in the form of light snow and gfs guidance is trending further south more in line with the ecmwf as well. There are still quite a few individual ensemble guidance members that show potential for the low to move a little further north though. This would bring potential for accumulating snow into our area so we will continue to monitor ensemble/deterministic medium range guidance trends.
Category: Michigan Weather Forecast
Great news the latest CPC show cold and snow for most of March! Bring it on!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=snku_acc&fh=384
It would be nice to know how much of Februarys precip was rain. I recorded 2 separate rain events both over an inch which would make up half of the months precip.
We are now at the start of meteorological spring. While there very well could be some big swings in the days ahead the trend will be for the over all weather to swing into spring like weather. Here is a definition of winter that I found. “Definition of winter in European languages is associated with the season of dormancy, particularly in relation to crops; some plants die, leaving their seeds, and others merely cease growth until spring. Many animals also become dormant, especially those that hibernate; numerous insects die.”
Slim
Wow, the long range models give us plenty of accumulating snow chances! Rock n roll baby!
Off subject – I generally don’t take political stands here, however, I feel with what is going on in Ukraine I must show my support to our brothers and sisters there fighting valiantly for their country, thus I have their flag in the main forecast graphic… God bless Ukraine!
God Bless Ukraine and to Hell with Putin and any other politicians that actually support or praise this monster! Hitler.2!
👍👍
That’s why America needs a young, strong leader like DeSantis!
“If you go into another country with an armed population that is hell-bent on resisting you, I mean, it’s going to be death by a thousand cuts for the Russian army,” DeSantis said. “I think the Ukrainians have done a good job so far of standing up to this.”
I will remind everyone that showing their support for the people of Ukraine is great but that this is a weather blog. If you want to get into a political discussion there are other blogs where you can do that if you wish.
Slim
While I don’t think DeSantis is a good Gov, I will take him over Putin loving Trump any day! Bring him on!
👍
I went to Mass this morning and Ukraine was discussed. God bless those brave people.
God Bless Ukraine! 🇺🇦
Wow lows in the teens! We are still seeing mid winter temps and accumulating snow is still showing up in all models! What a winter and it just keeps coming and coming! Incredible!
Wow 46 degrees yesterday and even warmer this weekend. March is starting warm!
While we will have to see how it all plays out but yes there are indications of cold and snow for mid March.
Slim
With mostly clear skies the overnight low here fell to 19 the official overnight low at the airport was 20. At the current time it is mostly sunny, there is a lot of frost with a temperature of 22.
Slim
Huh, so after weeks of endless posts telling us how we’re getting “pummeled” with endless snow GR ended up half a foot below average for Met Winter and the lakeshore 2 and a half feet below. Another weak Winter where the snowblower just sat in the corner unused for weeks on end.
I’ll take a 6 or 7 week winter like that any year!
Wow WOOD now has mid 50’s for both Saturday and Sunday! And this still may be too low. Parts of Michigan could be in the 65-70 degree range this weekend! I love it!
Also, as expected yesterday, WOOD has already started to raise temps next week as new models have trended warmer. Looks like one or two cooler days and then right back to the 40’s.
NWS GR says 62 here Sunday
I believe it!
You were also right about MSU in last night’s big game. That was one of the most listless MSU performances I’ve seen in a game like that in a while. I think Izzo is gone soon.
I think he should retire and enjoy the rest of his days.