Timing & Storm Risks
Weather History
1855: A tornado destroys at least one building as it moves from Jackson to Washtenaw County.
1972: A tornado caused minor damage north of Potterville in Eaton County.
On May 15, 1942, Flint was in the middle of a hot streak from the 14th to the 18th when high temperatures ranged from 91 to 93 degrees.
Also on May 15, 2007, there were 40 severe wind and hail reports across Southeast Michigan, including tennis ball size hail in Bad Axe and a measured 74 mph wind gust in Howell.
Forecast Discussion
- Severe Storms this Evening Only scattered showers expected today as shortwave ridge axis results in a capping inversion into the afternoon. Heights fall by evening as the deepening upper low moves across northern Minnesota and this, along with sfc heating and low level moisture advection will result in 2000 to 3000 J/KG of CAPE across the southwest forecast area by early evening. Deep layer shear is progged to be about 30 knots in this area, not exceptionally strong, but sufficient for organized storms. 0 to 1 km helicity values of 150 to 200 m2/s2 are also present, so rotating updrafts are expected along with their attendant large hail and tornado threat. The hi-res ARW and other model guidance has been consistent with the timing of a line of storms moving along or just ahead of an occluded front that is the focus of low level convergence and lift, with the arrival time around 00Z to 01Z at the Lake Michigan coast and between 01Z and 02Z in Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo then 02Z to 03Z from Lansing to Jackson. Storm mode most likely will be evolving from discrete cells to quasi-linear after sunset with embedded mesocyclones and downburst/surging winds. The potential for discrete supercells that can produce large hail and longer track tornadoes is lower, but cannot be ruled out. - Another Round of Storms Possible Friday Evening A second though different character of severe thunderstorm environment could set up for Friday evening as a 500 mb shortwave trough rounds the base of the low and approaches Lower Michigan. Forecast thermodynamic profiles Friday evening akin to the High Plains will feature steep lapse rates from the surface to 600-500 mb, with the well mixed diurnal boundary layer in the lower atmosphere nearly the same potential temperature as an EML in the mid-levels which advects in late in the day. Several CAMs have been developing elevated and high-based showers or storms during the evening with the support of the 500 mb shortwave. The moist convection would be in a strongly sheared layer cold enough for some hail production. If storms develop Friday evening, considerable downdraft potential exists given about 8,000 feet of dry and well mixed air underneath the storms (deep inverted-V sounding). DCAPE may be near 1,000 J/kg and inhibiting stable layers for downdrafts may be limited especially earlier in the evening. 25 knots of low-level wind momentum will also be available to augment the speed of the winds emanating from downbursts. As such, there is a gusty wind threat, possibly even isolated severe. - Cool and Calm Early Next Week Sfc low moves east Saturday night and Canadian sfc ridge replaces it with much cooler temperatures. Overnight lows will fall into the 30s again early next week and there is a threat of frost and freezing temperatures on Sunday night and Monday night.
Category: Michigan Weather Forecast
We just emerged from the basement. Lost power 15 minutes ago Circulation went overhead. Was wild for a few minutes. Hearing of a possible touchdown just to our west. Flipped semi on the freeway. Very intense storms throughout the area.
Wow that Lansing tornado was crazy!! My brother lost power, it probably missed him by a quarter mile or less. Maybe hit him if it was weak? We will see soon
Ada – we were lucky. Storms fell apart. Decent rain, no wind, potent Thunderstorm arrived before 11pm. Stressful night.
Ive been tracking the storms with my friends the past few hours. Quite the incredible night for west Michigan! Not something you see very often here with so many debris signatures at once
Tornado warnings!
Yea there are going to be a LOT of tornado reports from this… I can already count 3 active tornadoes right now
TORNADO WATCH 256 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
MIC005-009-015-019-025-029-031-035-037-039-045-047-055-057-065-
067-073-075-077-079-081-085-089-101-105-107-113-117-121-123-127-
133-137-139-143-159-165-160700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0256.250516T0020Z-250516T0700Z/
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN ANTRIM BARRY
BENZIE CALHOUN CHARLEVOIX
CHEBOYGAN CLARE CLINTON
CRAWFORD EATON EMMET
GRAND TRAVERSE GRATIOT INGHAM
IONIA ISABELLA JACKSON
KALAMAZOO KALKASKA KENT
LAKE LEELANAU MANISTEE
MASON MECOSTA MISSAUKEE
MONTCALM MUSKEGON NEWAYGO
OCEANA OSCEOLA OTSEGO
OTTAWA ROSCOMMON VAN BUREN
WEXFORD
84F, dp 65, strong south wind and sun filtering through… seems like optimal conditions setting up
Dewpoint is 70 – temp is 77 – yuck
The 852a ET update from the SPC still has us all under Enhanced, but they extended the Enhanced all the way to Monroe/Toledo.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Like mentioned above, that hatched tornado risk covers the lower half of our area… we will see, but looks like some good storms are possible if things pan out
We have lots of sun and a humid airmass in place most of the ingredients are in place for storms.
Climate summery for May 15. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 78/62 there was no reported rain before midnight. There were 5 Cooling Degree Days. For today the average H/L is 70/48 the record high of 91 was in 1971 the coldest high of 44 was in 1997 the record low of 34 was in 1920 the warmest low of 64 was in 1972. The most rainfall of 4.15” was in 2001.
Today should be a rather warm day and of course there is a chance of some severe storms this evening so keep that in mind. The overnight low here in my yard was 61 and at 8:30 with cloudy skies the temperature is 66 with a DP of 64
Slim