At 0700 we have have a large area of rain over the lake preparing to move inland. I would say everyone should get rain today but we know how that goes especially with cells drying up before they reach any given point. I have many tools to use which are to expensive to provide here – these track individual cell movement and storm velocity. In the summer our storms generally track from the southwest to northeast. They can form and die over a relatively short period or continue to increase in intensity and move. Some cells develop and drop copious amounts of rain then die without moving more than a few miles. Our best chances of rain come with strong low pressure systems moving over or close to the state. For severe weather we need to have instability and lift in the atmosphere allowing cumulonimbus clouds to form from 39000 to 70000 feet. There are a lot of variables to say why we haven’t had severe weather over the past couple years but I would say the jet stream track would be the main reason. So, to answer the question which was asked yesterday I hope this helps.
This is the SPC outlook for today.
At 640 AM EDT, a line of thunderstorms stretched from just offshore
of Muskegon southward to near South Haven. These storms were tracking
east at 35 mph. They contain frequent lightning, gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall. Additional storms were developing out ahead
of the main line, around Kalamazoo.
These storms will continue tracking east through 900 am and will
likely impact locations such as Muskegon, Holland, South Haven along
with Grand Rapids, Hastings and Kalamazoo. Locally gusty winds to
around 30 mph, frequent lightning and brief heavy rainfall rates that
may top a half inch per hour may accompany the strongest storms.
A slow moving frontal boundary will track southeastward through the Western Great Lakes Region today through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the passage of this system. Locally heavy rains, gusty winds and possibly hail could occur with any stronger storms. A weak area of high pressure will move in for Wednesday pushing any remaining showers and thunderstorms into Ohio and Indiana by evening. Below is the HRRR for rainfall for today and tonight. It seems fitting we would have storms today on my last day of work and on my birthday – hopefully I will have a chance to chase some of these in my retirement….
Not sure about the west side, but it is a really cool, orange-fish color outside here.
This is a answer to a question from Barry.
Barry I will post this here and will try and post this again on Saturday.
The most 90° days in Grand Rapids by month are April 1 1899, May 6 1977, June 14 1984, July 18 2012 and 1921, August 17 1947, September 7 1931. By year 37 1988, 35 1894, 32 2012, 31 1921, 28 in 1936 and 1955, 27 in 1901 and 1934.
Slim
Good call on 1988 and 2012, Barry. Can’t imagine why you can’t remember the other years. 🙂
Just a few gentle showers here today. All the action missed us yet again by mere miles.
2018 – the year of no storms.
Thanks Slim! You are the man when it comes top stats!!
“to”, stupid spell check
So will we have more storms later? Or is our rain ending for the day now?
Loving the rain. Lets call today an official rain day. 🙂
For what it’s worth, the CFSv2 monthlies now show every month between now and next May as being above average.
And in other news, the 100th street bridge got smacked again!
Hey Slim, stat for you to look up sometime. How many years have we had 20 or more 90 degree days? Now that we are in striking distance, I would think there can’t be too many. I would guess 1988 and 2012, but that’s about all I can recall.
Barry I will post this here and will try and post this again on Saturday.
The most 90° days in Grand Rapids by month are April 1 1899, May 6 1977, June 14 1984, July 18 2012 and 1921, August 17 1947, September 7 1931. By year 37 1988, 35 1894, 32 2012, 31 1921, 28 in 1936 and 1955, 27 in 1901 and 1934.
Slim
When I left home this morning, we had received just .2″ of rain – but now at work it has rained almost continually with a HUGE downpour starting around noon. Driving back to work at 12:30 with the wipers going full-tilt, I could still barely see the car ahead of me it was raining so hard. THIS will make the corn happy again! And hopefully will take the power away from storms later today…..
ADA – 2/10 at best…useless. Odd that we still hear the term “storm” around here…must be nostalgia.
70* our at thee YARDofBRICKS looking hard to make 80* today the rain has killed our chances for good storms this afternoon!! INDYDOG14!!
Just checked the rain gauge and here at my house so far only 0.36″ of rain has fallen. So while better than no rain still not a whole lot yet. The rain has now stopped here and it is cloudy with a current temperature of 72.
Slim
Here is a fun fact for Mookie. 9 of the last 12 months have been warmer than average at Grand Rapids with only November, December and April being below average.
Slim
Wow! We’re also well on our way to our third straight warm year in 2018.
So we’ve had a front loaded, middle loaded, and now we’re heading for a backloaded Summer. Hope we don’t end up with another September like last year when the final week was over 90, close to 10.
100
Nice now into August the hot days we have cool down at night with it getting dark at 9pm now …..Soon it will be Fall summer days are numbered enjoy well you can… Loving the rain outside … INDYDOG14!!
Yesterday’s low was a balmy 72 degrees – 10 degrees warmer than average.
Rock on INDY and soon we will be talking about the seasonal SNOWFALL totals! Bring it on!
By Michigan standards this has been a rather hot summer. So far Grand Rapids and Lansing have recorded 17 days of 90 or better. Over at Muskegon the number is now at 9 and down at Kalamazoo their number is now at 16. compare that to the number to locations to our south Indianapolis has had 26 days and in Bowling Green KY the number is at 45.
Slim
So far today I have recorded 034″ of rain. At this time getting light rain falling with a temperature of 69°
Slim
Here comes the next heat wave!
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
It’s summer still. How can this be. Haha.
>>>>BREAKING NEWS>>>> No more 90 degree days for GR the rest of this Summer/Fall! Barry you can count on it and take it to the bank!!
Did you just copy and paste this from your post 3 weeks ago? Whoops! It would be better if you just admitted you’ve been dead wrong all summer.
The mean average last 90° or better date (in years that have had them) at Grand Rapids is August 23 the range has been from April 29th for the earliest all the way to September 29th for the latest. So yes we still could see more 90° days. While not calling for 90 or more the GFS has a hint there is a chance around Aug 15 for one.
Slim
Gee thanks. Now you’ve just assured us of having more of them. They better not be on my long days at work.
Lol.
Happy Retirement Day Michael!!!!
Some heat wave? Two days around 90 degrees and then a bunch of near normal to slightly above normal temps! That is no heat wave, it is called summer! What a joke!
Going for our 4th warm month in a row. What a summer is right!
9 of the last 12 months have been above average at Grand Rapids. BTY where do you live??? for some reason I not sure if you live in west Michigan or not. I do not recall you saying your location.
Slim
Well that’s two more days of 90s we weren’t supposed to get. Now we are closing in on elite status if we hit twenty 90degree days. That does not happen very often.
Forget thunderstorms – how about that nice beneficial soaking rain! I love it!
Add two more to the list! 90 Saturday, 91 Sunday in GR. Looks like above average temps as far as the eye can see! It’s so funny that many on here were calling for no more 90’s, a below average August, and a cool back half of summer.
Mookie speaks the truth. Spot on my friend.