Storm Chances 3/19

Yesterday, we briefly reached a high of 71° in the afternoon; most of the day, it was in the mid- to upper 60s. Our morning low was 43°.  Today will be a classic windy and warm March day. Winds from the south will allow temperatures to rise well into the 60s, which is close to 20 degrees above normal this time of year. Cloudy skies will give way to increasing rain chances by late afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible this evening.

SPC Outlook

Mid West Blizzard

WPC Forecast

Weather History

1885: Lansing falls to 11 below zero during a string of eight straight days with low temperatures below zero. It is the coldest March on record there.

On March 19, 1921, the Detroit area experienced a minimum temperature of 32 degrees right after midnight, which rose slowly to 42 degrees at 8am and then rose very quickly to a high of 76 degrees at 3pm.

Also on March 19, 2012, Flint and Saginaw saw their high temperature soar to daily records of 80 degrees. Flint has only reached 80 degrees or warmer in March a total of 6 times in its climate record, with most (4) of them coming in March 2012. Saginaw has also done it 8 times, with half of them also occurring in March 2012.

State-Wide Tornado Drill

...A STATEWIDE TORNADO DRILL IS SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH
19TH...

The National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI will use NOAA
Weather Radio All Hazards to conduct a statewide tornado drill on
Wednesday March 19th. The National Weather Service will use the
Routine Weekly Test (RWT) on NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards to
implement this drill around 100 PM EDT.

This drill will cover all counties in Southeast Michigan. The
following counties will be included in the drill...

Midland, Saginaw, Bay, Tuscola, Huron, Sanilac, St. Clair,
Shiawassee, Genesse, Lapeer, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb,
Washtenaw, Wayne, Monroe, and Lenawee.

Persons are urged to practice their tornado safety measures
during the drill.

To all media in the state...please be aware of these messages...and
take appropriate actions as necessary. The message will be sent
out on NOAA Weather Radio EAS Encoding Units using the Routine
Weekly Test Code (RWT) and should not adversely affect the
Emergency Alert System (EAS). To our NOAA Weather Radio
listeners...please be aware that the NOAA Weather Radio Alarm Tone
will be activated on Wednesday March 19th for the Routine Weekly
Test (RWT SAME CODE)...but will have a special worded broadcast to
signify the Tornado Drill.

The statewide drill is being conducted in conjunction with Severe
Weather Awareness Week in Michigan...March 16th to March 22nd.

Forecast Discussion

- Warm today with rain/storms tonight, then colder with snow

Low pressure over Kansas will track northeast along a frontal
boundary that extends northeast from the low and through the cwa.
North of the front temperatures are in the mid 40s north of M-46
and 55-60 south of the front.

Temperatures will warm into the 60s to near 70 today, but will be
held down a little by cloud cover. We`ll see some instability
develop late in the day and continue during the evening as the low
gets closer. This could be a sneaky situation in which there`s
high shear, but low CAPE with a frontal boundary nearby. Strong
winds aloft could be mixed down in a stronger storm during the
evening. HRRR seems the most robust with instability and shows
800-900 j/kg MUCAPE this evening across the southwest cwa, which
is close to where a slight risk for severe storms exists now. A
marginal risk exists for the rest of the cwa generally for strong
winds.

Stronger synoptic winds will develop on the back side of the
departing low as colder air surges into the cwa. We expect wind
gusts to 40 mph along the lake shore, but wouldn`t be surprised to
see a few gusts to 45 mph prior to sunrise Thursday.

H8 temps are progd to fall from +6c to -8c by Thursday morning and
any precipitation behind the low will mix with and change over to
light snow. An inch or so accumulations looks possible north of
M-46 with lesser amounts south of there.

- Rain possible Friday night and mixed rain/snow Sunday/Monday

Another compact short wave will move through the region Friday
night brining another chance of light rain. However, precipitation
should be over by Saturday morning.

A stronger wave moves in late Sunday bringing mixed rain and snow
that will change to a brief period of all snow Monday.

- Highs mostly in the 40s

Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s today and lower 50s Friday.
Otherwise, highs will be in the 40s for the rest of the period.

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