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Springtime in Michigan

Posted on by MichaelV (Otsego)

It feels like a spring morning with temperatures in the low to mid 50s.  Currently 52° here in Otsego, 54 near Lansing, 56 in Ypsilanti and 55 in South Haven.  My driveway is clear (down to the gravel) for the first time in three weeks and the road is a sloppy mess.  Tis the season for potholes, so take care.  We will be flirting with records high temperatures today before the bottom drops out and the deep freeze returns later tonight.

Minor areal flooding may develop today due to rain and snow melt, especially west of Highway 131. Areas of dense fog could also redevelop. Standing water will quickly freeze up tonight as temperatures plunge into the 20s, leading to areas of black ice. There is also a risk for some light accumulations of freezing rain and snow late tonight mainly south and east of Grand Rapids.

The Friday morning commute may be slick due to areas of light freezing rain and snow and the overnight freeze up of standing water from Wednesday and Thursday`s snowmelt. Lake effect snow will result in some accumulations west of
Highway 131 over the weekend. A more widespread snow is expected beginning Sunday night and continuing through Tuesday, with light accumulations likely over most of the area.

Record high maxes for the day look to be in jeopardy, especially at Muskegon and Grand Rapids where the old records are in reach. Breaking record high mininums will be dependent on how quickly the cold air arrives tonight before midnight.

Below are the records for the day:

Record high maxes

Grand Rapids: 55 in 1980
Muskegon: 56 in 2012
Lansing: 63 in 1890

Record high mins

Grand Rapids: 37 in 2013
Muskegon: 37 in 2013
Lansing: 35 in 2013, 2006, and 1890

Flash freeze of standing water from rain and snow melt will occur tonight as arctic air rushes in behind the cold front. Prefer the colder/more aggressive raw model temps over MOS guidance for hourly temp trends and black ice will become a concern.

A winter weather advisory may be needed to cover a potentially slick Friday morning commute. At this time, the freezing rain and snow amounts look rather light since most of the qpf looks to move out when the colder air is moving in – and this is particularly true north and west of GRR. The better risk of impacts from measurable freezing rain looks to set up south and east of GRR late tonight so that may be the area that eventually needs a headline.

The long term forecast can be summed up as being cold, as arctic air sets up residence for a few days once again. There will be chances of snow showers, with the best chance coming Sun night and Mon with a system. Otherwise lower chances of lake effect will be possible near the coast with a mainly North wind flow expected.

The period from Sat night through Sun will be relatively quiet and cold. Lake effect snow showers will be ongoing with plenty of over lake instability present. The snow showers will be limited to the coast, and possibly entirely offshore as the mean low level flow will be N to NNE.

We will see snow chances increase Sun evening, with chances peaking overnight Sun night and Mon morning. We will see an upper low drop almost due south from Hudson Bay. A surface low will come in from the W/NW. SW flow ahead of it, combined with deeper moisture, and delta t/s (the difference in temperature between the surface of a lake and 850mb, typically used to determine lake effect snow potential) approaching 20C will help bring snow to the area. Once it moves in, it will sit and rotate about the region due to the upper low evolution to our West. Snow amounts and location of heavier snow is quite uncertain with it rotating overhead.

Today: Showers, mainly after 1pm. Areas of fog. High near 56. South wind 14 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight: Rain showers, snow showers and freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet before 3am, then snow showers likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain between 3am and 4am, then snow showers likely after 4am. Low around 22. South southwest wind 13 to 16 mph becoming north northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Wind chill values as low as -2. North wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. North wind around 10 mph.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 21.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

M.L.King Day: Snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 23.

Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8.

Wednesday: A slight chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 23.

 

Category: Michigan Weather Forecast

38 thoughts on “Springtime in Michigan”

  1. PURPLE-GREEN&BLUE on Radar…..NOW…..Kinda Pretty….
    Roads are Getting CHITTY…..Drive SLOW and Careful.

    1. Within the past 1/2 hour, nearly all schools closed around here. Freezing rain and sleet started pounding out windows about 5:30.

  4. I know the temps are above freezing but that is a cold rain out there. It almost feels like ice pellets mixed in.

  6. We HAVE a Wind SWITCH ……
    And The Temp. is Dropping Like a ROCKY in a DITCH. LOL….stay Cued….

  7. What a winter so far! Above normal snowfall and below normal temps!! Currently we are in a WWA and we will be in another one by Sunday night for 2 to 4 more inches! INCREDIBLE!

    1. Yes, quite an amazingly similar Winter to last year indeed! Big swings in temperatures, massive meltdowns that clear the ground of all snow, record high temps, January rains, two weeks of cold air, and somehow less snow than we had at this point last year, and that was on the very low side. With the outlooks looking very mild starting later next week, we could end up with almost an exact replica of last Winter!

  11. >>>BREAKING NEW>>>GR is still above normal for seasonal snowfall and no change in sight! Who would have thought?

  16. NEW RECORD HIGH FOR GRAND RAPIDS!!!
    With the latest reading of 57° Grand Rapids has officially broke the record for the warmest January 11th on record. Also a new record high at Saginaw of 56° and Alpena with 51° Flint is tied at 56° there could be more records broken before the day is over. Later on tonight we will have to see how fast it cools down as several record warm minimums are also in play
    Slim

    1. That’s an impressive record! Nearly 30 degrees above average! Imagine a late July day being 30 over average, it would have to be 110 degrees!

  17. Nice!! Just beat the record high today at 56 degrees! Can we make a run at 60 today?!??! Lots of green grass outside work here today in GR! Who would have thought?!?!

  18. With the spring like temperatures (52° here at my house) and a lot of bare ground now showing, I took down the outside Christmas decorations. The snow pack has really taken a toll here now in my area we are down to about a 40/60 snow coverage that is around 40% of the ground is now bare and on the roofs its looks like a 25/75 coverage with about 75% of the roofs now snow free and of course that helps with the roof run off.
    I just took a look at the seasonal snow fall totals for Chicago and Rockford and I cannot believe the seasonal numbers only 5.5” at Chicago and 5.8” at Rockford, IL
    Sim

    1. Just came in from taking down all our lights as well. This has to make about 5 years in a row now that the day I take them down, it’s 50 degrees or better. It is amazing that as cold as it was, it took three weeks to get about a foot of snow on the ground, but only 2 or 3 warm days to completely wipe it all out. Up to 54 here, and the sun actually peeked out for about 5 minutes earlier.

      1. No peak at the sun here but it is now up to 55° here at my house and the last reading at the airport is 57° and yes a large amount of the snow is now gone. With a lot of bare ground now showing.
        Slim

  19. Climatology for today January 11th At Grand Rapids, MI
    The average H/L is 31/18
    The record high is 55° set in 1980 (there is chance that could be tied or broken today) the coldest maximum is +6° in 1912
    The record low is -21° set in 1979 the record warmest minimum is 37° (that record also could be broken today)
    The most snow fall is 6.9” in 1991
    The most on the ground is 17” in 1999
    Last yar the H/L was 43/28 0.25” of rain fell and there was no snow on the ground.
    Slim

  20. Today is starting off very warm the official temperature at GRR already 52° (the record high for today is 55° set in 1980) Here at my house I now have a reading of 49° and while there is still snow on the ground here there is also a LOT of bare ground now showing. This January thaw is really taken a toll on the snow pack and there is more snow melt yet to come. And while there looks to be a good cool down for the weekend and the start of next week after that it looks to warm up once again! There also looks to be more rain than snow in the next 7 to 10 days or more.
    Slim

  21. NWS Detroit confident BOTH record highs and record lows will be broken in Lower Michigan today. Pretty remarkable day.

  22. GR may hit a new record today, but probably not here. Our 3″ of snow cover is gone.

    1. Records go back much further at Lansing (1864) but yes the record high at Lansing is 63° BUT the record warmest minimum of 35° is in play
      Slim

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