Soon it will be April

Soon it will be April
On Tuesday we flip the calendar to April. April  is sort of a birthday month in our family as my dear departed mother  was born on April 7th My wife was born on the 22nd and my youngest son was born on April 1^st.  In 1986 the year my son was born the month of March was 1.0° above average and the last 4 days all had highs in the 70’s with it being 78 on the 31st That month there were still large parking lot snow piles on March 31st I have a picture of my wife on that day. She went into labor just after midnight.
April is the first true month of spring. We gain about 1hour and 22 minutes of daylight. And the average daily H/L goes up from 52/32 to 64/43 by the end of the month. Remember that is the average H/L it can be colder or warmer. The record high for the month is 90 on April 29, 1899, it was as warm as 88 on the same day in 1970. The record low of +3 was recorded on April 7th 1982 the next night it was down to +7. It was 16 as recently as April 2nd, 2021, and 16 on April 8th 2018. The average mean temperature for April is 47.6 the coldest top 5 are 1907 with a mean of 37.6, 1950 with a mean temperature of 39.6, 1975 with a mean of 39.8, 2018 with a mean of 40.1 and 1926 with mean of 40.4. The warmest means for April are 53.8 in 1915, 53.7 in 2010, 53.3 in 1996, 52.8 in 1955 and 52.0 in 1921. The wettest Aprils 11.10” in 2013, 8.29” in 1909, 6.69” in 1999, 6.33” in 1947 and 6.27” in 2017. The driest Aprils are 0.39” in 1942, 0.77” in 2005 and 1899. 0.85” in 1915 and 0.98” 1932. The snowiest Aprils are 15.6” in 1961, 12.4” in 1982, 11.2” in1926 10.5” in 1952 and 10.1” in 1936. There have been several years with no snow fall in April, the last time that happened was in 1998. There have been two major tornadoes to hit west Michigan in April. The April 3, 1956, storm and the April 11, 1965 Palm Sunday storm. There is a very good bet that it will make it into the 70’s in April as only 3 years did not get that warm. And there is a good bet that it will get down into the 20’s as there have also been only 3 years that it did not get that cold.

I received 0.22” of rainfall yesterday The overnight low so far is a mild 59. Yesterday the official H/L was 71/41 there was 0.33” of rainfall the highest wind gust was reported as 54MPH out of the W. There was 20% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 50/31 the record high of 82 was in 1910 the coldest high of 25 was in 1915 the record low of 6 was in 1970 the warmest low of 61 was in 1910. The most rain fall of 0.83” was in 1973 the most snowfall of 7.5” was in 1954 the most on the ground was 8” in 1970

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and Chance of Storms Today and Tonight

- Severe Weather Possible Sunday, Highest Chance Near and South of
  M46

- Additional Shower and Storm Chances Mid-Next Week


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

- Showers and Chance of Storms Today and Tonight

A warm frontal boundary sits across the central part of the state
this morning, and is expected to drift south to near I96 by tonight.
Showers and storms will in initially be limited to along the
boundary but expand areawide as a low-pressure system moves into the
Great Lakes region later today and tonight. Cannot rule out some
isolated thunder through mid-morning north of I96 where marginal
elevated instability is in place.

- Severe Weather Possible Sunday, Highest Chance Near and South of
M46

Attention then turns to Sunday as increasing southerly flow drives
the warm frontal boundary north leading to warm sector development
across much of the CWA. MUCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range
with surface based convection and 30-40 knots of effective shear
will be sufficient for convective organization in the afternoon and
evening. The Storm Prediction Center currently has a slight (2/5)
risk of severe thunderstorms for the southern two-thirds of the area
which aligns well with expectations based on forecast soundings.
Greatest concern is south of M46 where the best surface based
instability will be present.

All severe hazards are possible in the forecast environment. Thermal
and wind profiles suggest storm clusters/a broken line as the
primary mode, supported by CAMs. Storm mode and sufficient DCAPE
suggest damaging winds as the primary threat. Steep mid-level
lapse rates will also drive a large hail threat. Tornado threat
is also present given the nearby warm-frontal boundary
potentially locally enhancing SRH. One limiting factor for
tornadoes however is that model hodographs have consistently had
a "veer- back" signature in the 1-3 km range which would lower
streamwise vorticity availability. One potential failure mode to
watch is for earlier precipitation to limit the available low-
level instability, so sky and precipitation coverage will need to
be monitored Sunday Morning.

- Additional Shower and Storm Chances Mid-Next Week

Behind a cold front later Sunday into Sunday Night, precipitation
will mix with or briefly change over to snow as the surface low
pulls away. Given warm antecedent conditions accumulations will be
little. Tuesday then will be dry as surface and mid-level ridging
will be present.

A low pressure system then crosses the Great Lakes region next
Wednesday into Thursday. The overall setup looks similar to this
weekend with warm sector showers and storms followed by a
trailing cold frontal boundary. This will support the region
receiving 1-2 inches of rain by late next week. LREF member
ensembles are consistent in bringing a dynamic kinematic
environment with this system. Given the ample moisture return
ahead of the system convective organization potential cannot be
ruled out and will need to be monitored.