Today will probably be the warmest and driest day of the week with some sun peeking through the clouds and temperatures warming to nearly 60° before our rainy cool pattern returns. Rain chances increase tomorrow through early next week and we may see an inch or more through Friday night.
SW Michigan Forecast
Forecast Discussion
The models have been fairly consistent on the upper level pattern. The large upper level low over southern Ontario will continue to dominate the pattern today. That upper level low will continue its slow progression eastward. That progression will pull an low to mid lvel moisture along with it. This will allow for the ending of any light showers and the clearing of clouds from along the I 94 corridor early today. Any clearing will be short lived as a negatively tilted ridge will allow for mid level moisture to stream around an upper level low located over the intermountain west and feed a boundary that will position itself across the upper midwest and into the mid Atlantic. That boundary will bring showers northward tonight through Thursday. Overall QPF could be a half an inch to an inch total. Temperatures will continue to be below normal. However highs should be in the 50s with lows in the low 30s along the US 10 corridor and in the 40s elsewhere. Story of the long term period remains the rainfall and associated low pressure system that is forecast to move through the area during the Friday through Saturday time frame. That said, we have precipitation chances in each 12 hour forecast period between Thursday night and early next week. Rainfall moves into the area during the short term period but becomes heavier in the long term, especially from Friday afternoon through Saturday. Both the operational GFS and ECMWF have rainfall totals in spots across Southwest Lower Michigan exceeding 2 inches. The WPC 7 day QPF which is largely driven by the Fri/Sat event continues to show much of the area in the 1.50 to 3.00 inch range. PWAT values are still forecast to peak around 1.3 inches in our southern forecast area Friday night. Bottom line we have high chances for rain in the forecast as this system has been well handled by the models for days. We continue to think we should be able to handle the precipitation without significant hydro issues. Where we could get into some flooding concerns is if we exceed 3 inches over a widespread area. At this point, that does not look to be the case. We continue to monitor precipitation trends. Otherwise, once the low pulls away to the east Saturday into Saturday night we go into a period of northerly flow which will produce lake effect over Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. We have low chances for lake effect rain showers in the forecast, but the precipitation will largely be over the lakes. We should dry out into mid next week as ridging both at the surface and aloft build in. Overall a cool period with rain cooled air early in the long term replaced by a north cold air advection wind later in the long term. 850mb temps from Saturday through next Wednesday are not far off from zero C.
SW Michigan Weather History
October 8
1871: The worst wildfires in the history of the Great Lakes region occur as strong south winds combine with tinder-dry conditions. The fires leveled several areas of Michigan and Wisconsin, including the cities of Peshtigo, Holland, Manistee, and Port Huron. At least 1200 people died, about half of them in the Peshtigo, Wisconsin fire. That same night, the Great Chicago Fire erupted, destroying much of the city.
October 9
1989: Record-cold temperatures put the freeze on southwest Lower Michigan for the second day in a row. Records include 23 degrees at Grand Rapids and Lansing and 24 degrees at Muskegon. The record cold is accompanied by scattered snow flurries.
October 10
1879: Southwest Lower Michigan is in the midst of a long spell of warm weather. Lansing rises into the 80s for seven out of the eight days from October 5th through the 12th. This includes the record high of 84 degrees on October 10th, which was preceded by a record 83 degrees on the 9th and followed by 85 degrees on the 11th.
1906: An early season snowstorm drops 4 to 8 inches of snow from Ludington to South Haven. Temperatures plunge into the teens the next morning, killing thousands of fruit trees, enough to alter the agricultural economy of southwest Lower Michigan.
October 11
1912: A late evening tornado hit Gratiot County. Five farms sustained damage along a five-mile-long path. An elderly woman was killed and her son injured as their home was blown apart southwest of Alma.
October 12
2006: A record early-season snowstorm brings up to eight inches of snow to southwest Lower Michigan. Tree damage and power outages were extensive around Hastings in Barry County as the wet, heavy snow clung to the tree branches, which still had leaves on them.
October 13
1874: A record cold snap struck Lower Michigan with Lansing plunging to 16 degrees.
1975: Record warmth occurred with highs in the 80s. The 87 degrees at Grand Rapids was a record for the date and the highest temperature for so late in the season.
October 14
1954: A tornado destroyed an empty schoolhouse at Ashley in Gratiot County. It also took the roof off one house and a porch off of another.
SE Michigan Weather History
October 8
On October 8, 2007, the fourth day of early October heat brought record highs to Southeast Michigan. Detroit reached and Saginaw reached 90, and Flint was 88, all of which were records. It was the latest recorded 90-degree day in the history of both Detroit and Saginaw as well.
Also on October 8, 2001, Flint hit a record low of 25 degrees.
Also on October 8, 2000, an unusual early October cold blast brought one of the earliest snowfalls on record to southeast Michigan. Wet snowflakes fell in Flint on both the 7th and 8th, while snow was observed at Detroit Metro Airport on the 8th only. For Detroit, this was the third earliest snowfall on record. While the snow only fell in trace amounts in the major metropolitan areas, more substantial snow was observed in the Thumb area. One to two inches of slushy snow contributed to auto accidents in Huron County.
October 9
On October 9, 1949, two days of record highs occurred in Detroit with temperatures at 86 degrees on the 9th and 84 degrees on the 10th.
October 10
On October 10, 1949, a three-day period of record highs in Flint ended. Temperatures ranged from 84 degrees on the 8th, 82 degrees on the 9th, and 85 degrees on the 10th.
October 11
On October 11, 1949, record high precipitation occurred, with 3.27 inches of rainfall recorded in Detroit.
October 12
On October 12, 2006, the earliest measurable snowfall occurred in Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw. Detroit recorded 0.2 inches of snow, Flint received 2.3 inches of snow, and Saginaw had 0.3 inches of snow.
Also in 1995, late-season heat gave record highs to all three sites, Detroit (84 degrees), Flint (82 degrees) and Saginaw (83 degrees).
October 13
On October 13, 1909, The second earliest measurable snowfall occurred in Detroit with an amount of 0.4 inches of snow. Also on this date in 1999, Detroit received 3/4-inch hail at 11:15 a.m.
October 14
On October 14, 1989, Detroit and Flint shared record highs this date with 83 degrees and 82 degrees respectively.
Currently 59 here and it feels “warm” compared to the past few days. I guess I’ve gotten to the point where upper 50s aren’t chilly anymore… one week ago I would have thought 70 was cool
You mean we might actually see a day with near normal temps! First time in a week! Wow!!!
Lots of morning sunshine in Jackson this morning. I had rain in Lansing but the farther south you went it cleared off. With a pretty gloomy/rainy forecast ahead it was nice to see.
I hope it dries, so I can mow today.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 49/45 that 49 was the coldest high since May 2nd There was 0.03” of rain fall. The day had 18 HDD’s there was no sunshine. The highest wind gust was 20 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is now down to 63/44 the record high of 85 was set in 1928 the record low of 25 was set in 1906. The record rain fall amount of 1.49” fell in 1912 there have been several years with a trace of snow fall. Last year the H/L was 75/42 and there was 0.59” of rain fall.
Slim