Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 47/25. That gave GR a departure of +11 for the day. There was no rain or snow yesterday. For the month GR now has a departure of +2.0 Grand Rapids is now below average in both the total precipitation and snow fall for December.
For today expect showers with some wind. The wind could be the big issue for today and there could be gust has high as 45MPH tonight and maybe has high as 65MPH near the lake shore. So far it looks like around 0.25″ of rain has fallen at GRR and the current official temperature is 49 and cloudy. Here at my house I had 0.22″ of rain fall and the current temperature here is 46. At this time while the chances of a white Christmas are not zero they are not all that good either. The current long range guess for Christmas day is for cloudy skies with a few flurries and a high of 36.
DISCUSSION
HIGH WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA AND HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST.
THIS WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC
WIND COMPONENT RESULTING IN 40 TO 50 KNOTS IN THE MIXING LAYER
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS, OVER 50 KNOTS, OCCUR LATE TONIGHT, BEFORE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS FULLY UNDERWAY. WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS REMAIN IN THE
DEEPER MIXING LAYER INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT SOME GUSTS OVER 60 MPH LATE TONIGHT, MOSTLY ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN, BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS THAT STRONG POSSIBLE
INLAND ON THURSDAY MORNING. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
THE LAST WIND EVENT WITH NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES, BUT THIS TIME
CONCENTRATED FURTHER NORTH, FROM MUSKEGON TO BIG RAPIDS AND NORTH
OF THERE. WINDS DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING AS THE MIXING LAYER
DECREASES AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES WITH THE LOW MOVING
NORTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
RAIN WILL BE LIMITED AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF IS
IMPEDED BY CONVECTION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH BEFORE THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING.
- SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY, NEXT WEEK
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS POOLING ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT,
WHICH STALLS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND SURFACE LOW FORMS IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ON FRIDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME, AND EVENTUALLY
PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW, CREATING AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION OR A TROWEL FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS IMPROVED A BIT AS
THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS LOWER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER TYPE
LOW. IT NOW APPEARS THIS WILL LOW TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SO
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOW NOW LOOKS TO BE LATER IN THE WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC WAVE COULD COMBINE TO BRING SOME SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
It is 10:45 PM and it is 63 degrees out. The wind is howling.
Currently 63* in my hood feels like a Summer night outside this is pure crazzy I admit….InDY
62 degrees. 8pm. A week before Christmas.
The bizarre weather continues.
I texted family to the south saying how warm it is here. LOL!!!
The line of storms is moving northeast get this at 100 mph that has to be a record!! It will be in Wisconsin before we know where there is currently a Tornadoe watch this is nuts ….InDY
The number/severity of the SPC wind reports is unbelievable.
There is currently 9 Tornadoe warnings with the line of storms moving into Iowa and Missouri looks like another destruction of a night coming up in the month of December not good …InDY
That is not good…
Any temp records broken yet???? InDY
Muskegon is the only one I have heard so far.
GR has broken the all time record, don’t know about other locations. I’m sure Slim will be all over it tomorrow.
Man, my yard is incredibly green for mid-December!! More like early May out today!! Keep the warm weather and snow drought ROCKIN!!
It actually reminds me when we have 30’s for highs in May very unique for this time of year only if we could keep this going butttt a cold front close won’t happen….Go Blue Andy…InDY
Go Blue INDY!!
A little something for everyone. Bill Marino even mentions Christmas. 🎄🎅🤶
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GRR&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Wow up to 58 degrees in GR!
60 degrees in mid December. Not very often you can say that! Did we jump right into April?
Golf courses waste 2 billion gallons of water every single day! Incredible!
With the current official temperature of 57 at GRR that makes this the 2nd warmest ever for any December 15th at Grand Rapids. The record high for the date is 60 set in 1971. Here at my house the current temperature is now at 59 with cloudy skies.
Slim
A moderate risk for Minnesota in December??
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Well, I guess we will see if our Christmas lights get blown down again.
There are some issues with the site this morning, it was down early – stating tomorrow I will have to do some updates and tweaking so we make be down from time to time.