Michigan Wx Michigan Wx

Soggy Start to the Week

Posted on by MichaelV (Otsego)

Yesterday we had a well above-normal 52.5° and a low of 32° with a few peeks of the sun through the clouds.  Rain will spread over the area from South to North this morning. Some snow could mix in with the rain east of U.S.-131, with up to an inch of accumulation on grassy areas possible. Conditions will then dry out for Monday, with some sunshine possible.  The SPC has placed southern low Michigan in the general area for thunderstorms.

Michigan will slowly settle into a cooler pattern this week with below-normal temperatures in early January lasting through possibly the end of the month.  This would suggest a prolonged cold winter weather forecast opposite of what we had last winter.

Mid-level high pressure is forecast to build along the West Coast, while mid-level low pressure strengthens over the East. This pattern favors Arctic high pressure shifting south from Canada during early January and the coldest temperatures so far this winter are expected to overspread the northern Great Plains and Midwest. An increased risk of a winter storm is forecast to shift from the Midwest to the Northeast from January 4 to 10.

Weather History

1880: Arctic air puts Lower Michigan in a deep freeze. Lansing falls to 15 below zero after a low of 17 below zero the day before. The high temperature of 1 above zero on this day is the coldest maximum temperature on record for the month of December at Lansing.

1984: Temperatures reach record highs for the second day in a row at Grand Rapids and Lansing. Amazingly, the record high of 65 degrees at Grand Rapids is set just after midnight. A cold front moves through in the morning and temperatures fall into the 30s during the afternoon.

On December 29, 1998, 0.1 inches of snow fell in Detroit. While this light snowfall is not usually a significant event at the end of December, this was the first measurable snowfall for the 1998-1999 winter season, making this date the latest first measurable snowfall of any winter season.

Also on December 29, 1880, the daytime temperature rose to only -3 degrees in Detroit. This is the second coldest maximum temperature for any day in Detroit.

Forecast Discussion

- Rain Today with Low Chance Wet Snow North This Evening

Chances for accumulating snow this afternoon and evening are, if
anything, a little less than before. This is due to a slightly
warmer profile associated with the precipitation axis setting up
just a little farther west than previous guidance showed. Greatest
precipitation amounts still look to occur over Southeast Lower MI
where Q-vector convergence will be maximized, especially owing to
pivoting of the mid-level thermal gradient over this region.

Regarding snow accumulations, we continue to see poor to non-
existent membership among the ensembles with any significant
accumulations. WPC guidance is leaning towards a cooler NAM-
associated solution; in this scenario, local amounts approaching
an inch for grassy surfaces are not out of the question for
interior locations north of US-10. As noted previously, there is a
lot of sensitivity to the temperature forecast so it should stand
to reason that the slightly colder NAM would make this scenario a
conspicuous outlier with snow accumulations. All of this being
said, some wet/slushy accumulations on grassy surfaces would be
the most probable outcome even for the favored higher elevation
areas across north central Lower MI. Hence, we are not expecting
this to be an impactful event.

- Light Rain/Snow Mix Expected Tuesday, Remaining South of I-96

No change to previous thinking with this part of the forecast. Most
precipitation will occur from the I-94 corridor southward, and
even here total QPF will likely remain below a tenth of an an
inch. So once again, little if any impacts are expected.

- Becoming Colder with Lake Effect Snow Starting New Year`s Day

The signal is consistent and strong for a transition to broad
longwave troughing over the eastern U.S. with 850 temperatures
crashing right on New Year`s Day. With this transition comes
colder temperatures and a favorable setup for episodic lake effect
snow events and persistent cold that should allow for a
protracted period of measurable snow on the ground for the first
time this winter.
Category: Michigan Weather Forecast

10 thoughts on “Soggy Start to the Week”

  2. Above Average Snowfall going into January already thats a plus I love front loaded Winters who knew ?? INDY

  3. Great news! Historically the 2 snowiest months of winter are about to begin and all signs point towards tons of Snow and cold! Incredible! Rock n roll will live forever!

  4. Odd time of year for the grass to be greening up, but best time of the year to see green is between Christmas and New Years! Means a third of winter is already behind us.

    1. What do you get when you combine Arctic air, wind, a warmer than normal lake MI and synoptic low pressures? A winter to remember is almost upon us! Get prepared now! The warm weather fanatics may want to go hibernate! It is almost party time!

  6. The official H/L yesterday at GRR was52/35 there was 0.09” of rainfall there was no snowfall and there was no sunshine. The highest wind speed was 37 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 33/22 the record high of 65 was in 1984 the coldest high of 10 was in 1976 the record low of -4 was in 1909 the warmest low of 41 was in 2019. The most rainfall of 1.38” was in 1990 the most snowfall of 5.3” was in 1980 the most on the ground was 14” in 1909.
    Slim

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