Soaking Rains 3/4

Yesterday’s high was 40° and the low was 20° with cloudy skies.  Expect the typical springtime “up and down” with the weather over the next few days: It will be rainy and mild today and Wednesday, followed by a little snow Wednesday night, then a cooler but sunnier Thursday. The rainfall amount from the passing system will be .5 to an inch.

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Weather History

1912: Subzero cold continues during one of the coldest months of March on record across Lower Michigan. Muskegon sets a record low of 2 below zero on this morning, during a spell of five straight days below zero.

March 4 has seen many snowstorms across Southeast Michigan. Snowstorms have occurred in 1895, 1899, 1900, 1985, 1999, 2003, and 2008. Many of these storms rated in the top 25 heaviest snowstorms including:

Detroit in 1900 received 16.1 inches of snow for 3rd heaviest snowstorm
Detroit 1895 12.3 10th

Detroit 1899 11.4 15th

Flint 1999 9.1 14th

Saginaw 1985 12.0 16th

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Forecast Discussion

- Occasional Rain Through Wednesday

A strong low pressure system is located over extreme northwest
Kansas early this morning. This system will into our region
Wednesday. Southerly flow warm air and moisture advection will
precede the arrival of this system and high temps today will reach
well into the 40s to near 50 degrees.

A consensus blend of latest high res computer model guidance
continues to suggest that occasional rain can be expected today
through Wednesday as precipitable water values reach anomalously
high values. Total rainfall amounts of three quarters of an inch
to an inch and a quarter will not be sufficient enough to result
in hydro issues of any significance given antecedent conditions
and the long duration of this event.

Isolated convection is possible Wednesday given favorable
kinematicss/shear, strong mid to upper level pva/dynamics, ample
moisture and lift. However lack of sfc or elevated instability of
any significance continues to be the main mitigating factor for
convective intititation to occur.

- Windy With Snow Showers Wednesday Night

Strong nw flow caa on the back side of the departing low pressure
system will result in a fast transition to snow showers Wednesday
evening. However snow accumulations will be very light at less
than an inch. Wind gusts will flirt with advisory criteria
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with isolated power outages
possible particularly near Lake MI.

- Tranquil Weather With Seasonable Temps Friday Through Sunday

An overall medium range guidance consensus blend suggests mainly
tranquil wx with seasonable temps can be expected Friday through
the weekend. A weak system passing by to the south of our region
may bring a little light snow to our southern fcst area Friday.