The weather has settled across Michigan this morning and the cold air has moved in. We had 8 inches of snow yesterday which brings us to 39 inches for the season. We started yesterday with a high temp of 36° and ended with a low of 20°. Below are the snowfall totals for other areas in southern Michigan. We will be busy with the snowblowers today.
Counties along the I-94 corridor have a chance of light snow today, but any additional accumulations will be light (one-half inch or less). Elsewhere, cloudy skies and cold temps can be expected.
Forecast Discussion
- Snow has ended for most locations We will cancel the remaining counties in the Winter Storm Warning at 4AM. Snow gradually waned earlier tonight with the loss of deep- layer ascent. While the surface front continues its southward advance (now extending from the western Gulf to the Ohio Valley), the region remains situated within a tight baroclinic zone. Weak midlevel frontogenesis continues to force precip production aloft, with weak banded radar returns in composite reflectivity. However, surface obs and low- elevation reflectivity confirm that considerable subcloud sublimation is occuring, with only flurries being reported in spots (AZO at present). - Some additional light snow possible for SE counties today Upstream, an uptick in radar returns has been noted across MO/IL, on the leading edge of second batch of precip emerging from the plains. This is generally occuring beneath the right-entrance region of a strengthening 170-kt upper jet streak and in conjunction with midlevel frontogenesis. Confidence is high that this second precip area will largely miss our region to the south, but we will maintain PoPs in Calhoun/Jackson counties. Here, HRRR profiles maintain a pronounced dry layer beneath a DGZ aloft, suggesting that sublimation will continue to be a factor. We expect that additional accumulations today will be 1/2 inch or less for these counties. - Clearing skies tonight, and cold The surface high over the northern plains this morning will settle into central Ontario tonight. With clearing skies, light winds (with a slight offshore component at the lakeshore), and extensive snowpack, radiational cooling will result in a cold night. We have adjusted our forecast lows downward from NBM guidance, and expect widespread below-zero readings in our forecast area. - Clipper system, lake-effect snow Fri afternoon/Fri night Our attention then turns to a clipper system that will approach for Fri afternoon. Aloft, a diffluent midlevel shortwave trof will dive southeastward from the Canadian Rockies. An associated surface low will likely consolidate in western ND by 00z Fri, then reach the vicinity of central Lake Michigan by 00z Sat. Ahead of this low, a mid-lake snow band may be ongoing on Fri morning. Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow may serve to transport this band toward our lakeshore by midday Fri, but this scenario is not certain. However, we are more confident in renewed lake-effect snow associated with the clipper passage. Strong QG forcing for ascent arrives by late Fri afternoon, with concurrent low/midlevel moistening seen in BUFKIT time-height sections. The combination of strong ascent and steep lapse rates within the DGZ suggest that some robust snow showers may develop on Fri afternoon/evening, with inversion heights gradually falling thereafter. At this time, we expect accumulations of 1-3 inches through 12z Sat, generally along/W of US-131. Despite modest accumulations, travel impacts in some areas will likely result. - Additional Clipper systems through Wed A mean longwave ridge over the NE Pacific will help to maintain generally northwest flow aloft from western Canada into the Great Lakes through next week. The next in a series of clipper-like disturbances will arrive on Sun, with perhaps another midweek system. Each system may bring a period of lake-effect snow.
The latest 8-14 day outlook looks cold (Greatest chance of below normal temps centered over Michigan) with potentially slightly above average precipitation. Looks like a brief warmup next week enough the thaw out maybe couple days before things get colder again.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
You know it! We have tons of cold and snow coming in the next 2 weeks and probably right through March! Incredible!
Plenty of snow in the mid and long range! Look at all those pretty colors!
https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2022020318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384
GREAT sunset. Going to be a COLD night.
Brilliant red sunset here now.
Slim
It was fantastic. I went out and snapped a pic.
As previously noted, Lansing’s storm total became the largest single-day snowfall for any day in the month of February. The previous record was 13.0 inches on February 28, 1900. In addition, it was the sixth-largest daily snowfall total recorded in Lansing history. Here are the top five: 15.4” on January 26, 1967 (notably, the Blizzard of ’67) 15.1” on January 26, 1978 (notably, the Blizzard of ’78) 14.5” on December 11, 2000 13.9” on March 17, 1973 13.9” on March 9, 1919 The daily total broke the previous record for the most snowfall on February 2nd, which was previously 8.4… Read more »
Thanks for the info Mark!
According to Accuweather, we are about 3 weeks away from fairly consistent 40’s and 50’s as we start that upward climb into spring. I love it!
If you are banking on AccuLESS weather you are desperate! Good luck with that!
Lol…Same old post now for here on out …Grasping I call it straight out of Zland Michigan …InDY
Here is where the major reporting stations stand after yesterdays snow fall. Grand Rapids had 5.1″ yesterday. For the season 50.7″ that is a departure of -1.5″ for the season. At Muskegon 0.4″ yesterday, 36.8″ for the season a departure of -23.5″ Lansing 13.3″ for the season 36.8 a departure of +6.1″ At Detroit 6.2″ yesterday 25.4″ for the season a departure of -0.3. At Flint 11.0 and for the season 40.4″ +9.3. At Saginaw 4.5″ for the season 26.3 a departure of -3.8. To the north Alpena just a trace for the season 42.7 a departure of -1.7. Sault… Read more »
The lakeshore really seems to be lagging behind again this season in snowfall. Muskegon at -23.5”? There just hasn’t been any good lake snow setups where it just piles up.
Wow, the lakeshore snow deficit is now almost 2 feet!
Wow, GR is nearly up to normal snowfall! Keep it coming!
14* degrees out on my area shovel up a nother well below average day thats been then trend now for all of Winter COLD !! Amazing…InDzy
Lansing has set a daily record snowfall for February of 13.3”!! Incredible! Finally got a nice big snowstorm. Who would if thought some of the highest totals would have occurred in the northern most warning counties?
https://www.weather.gov/grr/weatherstory
Yeah, I thought we’d be somewhere between 6-9″ – this is why I don’t get paid to forecast the weather. 13.3″ is the greatest daily snowfall ever for the month of February for Lansing. For the season, Lansing (36.8″) has more snow than Muskegon (36.2″). Interestingly, I have only used the shovel and/or snowblower three times this winter. What surprised me was that the southern tier of Michigan counties were supposed to get like 15-20″ of snow. From Branch county eastward, they pretty much only received 5-6″. The I-69 corridor was hit the hardest. And kudos to Blake Harms. He… Read more »
I am still waiting to see how the models that are now is use handle a system like we had in 1967,1978 or even 1973. The snowfall total maps for the most part are way off and they were once again for yesterday but they did a good job on the sharp cut off.
Slim
You’re right. The snow maps yesterday were pretty bad. Granted, they also didn’t expect temps to almost hit 50 degrees the day before. It was a crazy storm, I get it. But bad temperature predictions coupled with bad snowfall maps is not the best look.
It did hit 50 here on Tuesday. 🙂
56 inches of snow for this Winter season out in my area I only need 34 more inches to reach my goal of 90 inches not bad for the Winter that wasn’t to be from you know whoes lol!! And its only February!! Pushing 50 days straight with snow pack on the ground INCREDIBLE!! InDY
Rock on! Great storm and a great start to winter! Just think we have another 1.5 months of winter left! Rock n roll will never die!
Always more snow at Indy’s house – every winter. How is that possible? LOL
I’m going out to enjoy the fresh 10” that have fallen! Everyone have a great day!
Enjoy and I will be skiing this weekend! Who wouldn’t love cold and snow this time of year?
Enjoy skiing!
Looks like most locations were below average snow for January. Does anyone have the stats for Holland? I was at my brothers house yesterday North of Grand Haven and it barely snowed there at all. I thought this was going to be a 2 day event with some saying it would snow till Friday?
For some reason Holland doesn’t keep snow fall records. There was a sharp cut off of the snow fall yesterday and up north there was only a trace at most locations. As for the year I have listed where the larger stations stand as of this morning.
Slim
What a sharp cut off of yesterdays snow fall. The official reading at GRR was 5.1″ I live about 15 miles NW of the airport and I recorded just 3.1″ I am about 22 miles SE of the Muskegon airport and they only reported 0.4″ of snow fall. This morning there is now 5″ of snow on the ground here at my house and I now have a temperature of 17 with cloudy skies.
Slim
It was a tight gradient in the county I live in. 4” was reported at Belding in Northwest Ionia County with 10” at my house in the southeast part of the county.
I live about 2 miles from the airport so a lot of times their totals are close to mine, although sometimes in a lake effect event they are still different, which is interesting.
Even though GR didn’t get the huge snow that fell to the SE, it was still one of the bigger snow events in recent years (we don’t often get 5+ inch events).
Yeah 5+ Inches from a actual synoptic system don’t happen as often. It is mostly clippers with 1-3 or 2-4 with a little more at the lakeshore. Not sure where season snowfall sits at my house compared to a normal as I don’t keep track and there is obviously no data for my town, but a 10” event is hard to get around here.
I like how NWS GR only posted the highest snow totals they could find – all way south and east of GR. It must be run by Rocky and Indy LOL I don’t see an official measurement for GR or anywhere north that barely got anything.
I wondered about that too. I take an average though I am sure I could find higher amounts if I tried hard enough.
You are crazy! The official snowfall for GR was over 5 inches! I picked up 3.6 inches I. Rockford! This was a massive storm and now we are back in the deep freeze! What a winter!
Measured 6 spots in my yard that was bare grass on Tuesday after the temps were in the 40’s, they were all at about 1.5” so I would say that’s a pretty good average for my place. Talk about a yawner of a snowfall for me!
I ended with 10” of snow at my house. Was a great storm. Best one in quite some time.
GR is now over 50 inches for the season! What a storm and the month – January was colder than normal and snowier than normal! What a winter so far!
Still below average snow on the season despite the constant hype and your prediction of 100 inches? Incredible!
Just more cold weather overhyping as usual!