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Snowfall Data – The Michigan Weather Center
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Snowfall Data

Yesterday we had just a trace of rain with a couple of snow flakes mixed in just as a teaser.  The sun came out in the afternoon to help warm things up to 48° after a morning low of 27°.  Our temp at 5:30 this morning is 34°.

There are a lot of guesses for a snowy winter compared to last year with lake effect being a player which was nearly non-existant over the past three years.  Even though the CPC predictions of warmer than normal temps continue that is not to say we can’t have snow especially in the overnight hours.  These outlooks seem to change daily so I don’t take a whole lot of stock in them…  I think our snowiest months will be December and February, just a wild guess…  We still are waiting for the snowpack to increase over Canada which is proceeding nicely.  The Hudson Bay still remains mainly ice-free.  There are hints our winter may come around after next week.

 


With the first official snowflakes of the season falling at Grand Rapids and Muskegon on Tuesday, we thought we would look back at the first snowflakes of the season over the last 10 years. Most of the first snowflakes usually fall at the end of October or the beginning of November, with some exceptions.


Forecast Discussion

- Cold and mostly cloudy into Friday morning

We get one more day in the cold air (today). Then the large upper
trough, that has brought this cold weather, is booted to our
east. In fact the upper jet that defines where the mid to upper
level pool of cold air, moves through Lower Michigan this
afternoon. Once that upper jet core is overhead or east of us, the
risk of lake effect showers really comes to an end (lack of deep
enough moisture). This starts the low and mid level warm advection
pattern.

This means we will continue to see the light lake effect
rain/snow showers into mid morning today. These will mostly be
west of US-131. We remain in the deep cold air until then late
morning. The showers that are going on now are the result of the
shortwave on the jet core moving through the area. There is just
enough lift with the shortwave to get the inversion heights high
enough to have the cloud tops in the DGZ (snow growth zone
currently near 8000 ft). There is still decent lift in the 900 to
850 mb layer near and west of US-131, mostly south of Muskegon
till around 10 am this morning too. Even so the moisture is
shallow and cloud bases are above 5000 ft (sign of to much low
level dry air).

I do not expect these showers to have much impact on our morning
commute. Unlike yesterday morning, we have surface temperature
near or above freezing where the showers are happening. The clouds
are more prevalent this morning so I do not see temperatures
falling much from their current values. Fog will not be an issue
and the roads will mostly just be wet where the showers (rain or
snow) are.

Once the upper jet gets east of the area this evening, we will
continue to see clouds until mid morning Friday. That is when the
lower level warm air reaches this area to clear the clouds out.

- About a week of warm and mostly dry weather

We are expecting warmer than normal temperatures with a low risk
of meaningful rainfall from Saturday until at least Wednesday.
This is the result of shortwave ridging that will build over this
area into Tuesday. That happens due deepening eastern north
Pacific trough just off the west coast. The deepening eastern
trough will of course build a upper ridge in front of it. Monday
seems like it would be the warmest day, since that is when the mid
and upper level heights are greatest over our area. That
typically means warmer surface temperatures.

We will have two systems pass north of us during this time frame.
The first a lead shortwave from that eastern Pacific trough that
moves through southern Canada later Friday into Saturday. This
system brings a warm front through our area Saturday. Since the
system`s primary dynamic energy is in Ontario, north of Lake
Superior and that is where the deeper moisture is, the treat of
rain here, ahead of the warm front Friday night into Saturday
morning is low.

The second system is another shortwave coming out of that
deepening trough  off the west coast. That system tracks north of
us, through central Canada in the Tuesday time frame. It has a
trailing cold front with it. That may trigger a few light rain
showers Tuesday but most of rain from that will be well north of
Michigan.

- A stormy and colder pattern returns late next week

So, on Tuesday a cold front comes through but the air behind this
front is not all that cold yet. However things get stormy after
that. Once that front comes through it stalls near I-80 by early
Wednesday. Then yet another shortwave from that eastern Pacific
trough comes through and develops a wave on that cold front. That
may bring some rain to the area Wednesday. The models have not
been overly consistent with this feature through so I would not,
at this time say rain is likely Wednesday.

Here is where it gets interesting for those who like stormy
weather in the Great Lakes. There is an upstream system from
norther Asia that finally gets far enough east to boot that
eastern Pacific trough toward us. While the detail have yet to be
worked out, the ensembles of both the GFS and ECMWF have a fairly
deep eastern trough by early in the following week. This will mean
another transition from warm and dry to cold and wet (maybe
snowy). More than 3/4 of the ensembles (80 total members) of the
GFS and ECMWF have measurable snow over this area by early in the
following week. We will continue to watch this and as it becomes
more clear how this plays out we will share those details with you.
newest oldest
Andy W
Andy W

Keep the warm weather ROCKIN and LETS GO BRANDON!!

Slim

There may or may not be some who do are not familiar with your post. But that said I will say that you Andy W are under a warning and you will only get this one.
Slim

Andy W
Andy W

Lol!! Gotcha!

INDY
INDY

I guess im confused but yes keep the COLD air rocking!!! INDY

Slim

There was once again trace amounts of snow fall here. Yesterday during my walk there was some light snow falling and it looks like overnight there was some snow as there is some on the car. Yesterday here the high was 44 and the overnight low here was 33. At this time it is cloudy and 35.
Slim

Nathan (forest Hills)
Nathan (forest Hills)

I like how you emphasized the last paragraph of the afd. Sounds exciting if that pattern change actually pans out 😀

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Lows in the 20’s and 30’s! Wow the transition has begun! After a brief warm up this weekend the real fun will begin! Get ready for winter!