Snow Starved

Most areas of Michigan have seen less than two inches of snow so far since November.  We have had a trace this month in Otsego with 1.63 inches of rain.  We had 8 inches of snow on 11/28 which was the sweet spot with a west wind on that day.  The CPC is guessing we will remain with chances of below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures through the end of the month into the first week of the new year.  This is not speaking for glad tidings of a white Christmas this year.  The weather is expected to be dry and uneventful through the rest of the week.

Forecast

Weather History for SW Michigan

1995: A spell of frigid weather continues with high temperatures of only 10 degrees at Grand Rapids and 11 degrees at Muskegon.

2000: A blizzard strikes southern Lower Michigan with record snowfall and strong winds causing heavy drifting, and shutting down travel. The 14.5 inches of snow that falls at Lansing is the heaviest on record for any December day. The 14.2 at Grand Rapids is also a record for any day of the month and contributes to December of 2000 becoming the snowiest month ever recorded there.

Weather History for SE Michigan

On December 11, 2000, a powerful storm system moved east just south of Michigan, dumping heavy snow across all of the area, with some freezing rain and sleet near the Ohio border. Near blizzard conditions with up to 58 mph wind gusts were found across all of the area, with an outright blizzard in the Thumb. Many schools were closed for two to four days after the storm. Mail delivery the next day was spotty at best, and many businesses and government offices were closed. Specific snowfall amounts and impacts of the storm, by county… Bay: 8 to 10″ in Bay City. Genesee: 12-14″ fell, along with 4-foot drifts. Flint Bishop International Airport closed in the afternoon of the 11th and ended up with 14″, the third largest snowfall on record. Up to 200 cars were stranded on Interstate 75 just south of Flint during the storm. In Burton, the roof of a window manufacturing company collapsed. Huron: 16.2″ in Port Hope. Lapeer: 12-16″ near Lapeer (city), with 3-foot drifts. Interstate 69 was closed from Davison to Imlay City. Lenawee: 5.7″ in Adrian with some freezing rain. Livingston: 10-15″ with 3 to 5-foot drifts. Macomb: 12″ across the county. Midland: 7 to 11″ in Midland (city). Monroe: 8.5″ just southeast of Milan; up to half an inch of freezing rain in Monroe with several trees downed due to ice and wind, and power outages. Oakland: 12″ across the county. St Clair: 12.3″ near Avoca; 14.7″ in Ruby; 17.5″ in Yale, 14″ in Capac. In Port Huron, 12-20″, closing the Blue Water Bridge to Canada. Saginaw: 11″ in Frankenmuth with 3-foot drifts, roads drifted shut. MBS (Tri-Cities) International Airport had many flights canceled, and the airport was closed at 830 pm on the 11th. Sanilac: 13″ in Brown City. Shiawassee: 15.5″ in Morrice. Tuscola: 10-14″ in Vassar. In Caro, 16.3″ of snow fell with 4 foot drifts. An 18-car pile-up on the north side of town required snowmobiles to rescue stranded motorists. Washtenaw: 8-12″ in Ann Arbor; closing Eastern Michigan University for only the second time ever. Wayne: 6-12″ across the county; three-eighths inches of freezing rain in Rockwood; At Detroit Metropolitan Airport, 6.1″ fell, with 197 departures and 165 arrivals canceled.

U.S.A and Global Events for December 11th:

December 11, 1905:

The highest temperature ever recorded in South America was recorded at Rivadavia, Argentina with a temperature of 120 degrees.

December 11, 1992:

A complex storm system moved eastward from the Gulf Coast of Texas to eastern Georgia on December 9 and 10^th. In the next 24 hours, the low-pressure system moved to the Chesapeake Bay and rapidly intensified. This system produced gale force winds with gusts exceeding hurricane force affected not only the Mid-Atlantic coastline but also as far southwest as the southern Appalachians where trees were downed and roofs damaged. This storm also produced 20 to 30-foot waves in Massachusetts on December 12 and 13^th. Precipitation amounts varied considerably. Rainfall amounts of 8 inches occurred in southeastern Massachusetts, while several areas in New York, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Maryland recorded more than 30 inches of snow. Precipitation ended during the evening hours on the 12^th. Ten deaths resulted from the storm with insured losses totaling nearly $850 million and non-insured losses near $2 billion.

Forecast Discussion

We have been monitoring observations across the area and outside our
door this morning for any evidence that freezing drizzle is "heavy"
enough to cause impacts and require the need for messaging about it.

All of the area observations have not shown any kind of restriction
to visibility since the snow showers moved through just before
midnight. Outside the door here, there is the slightest hint of some
very light mist, but it is not freezing on any sfcs so far. The T/Td
depression is likely enough to help it evaporate before freezing on
sfcs.

The good news is that the very light radar echoes are shrinking in
coverage and intensity, and with that the chance for any meaningful
frozen pcpn. This is occurring as the upper trough is shifting east
of the area, and the cyclonic flow aloft is transitioning to anti-
cyclonic flow.

The low level flow will back a bit today eventually to become from
the SW. There may be a couple of residual lake effect flurries/light
snow showers as the flow becomes more onshore. Forecast soundings
indicate a thin layer of the dgz barely being saturated, leading to
the light drizzle/freezing drizzle/snow threshold being very close.

It does look like any snow showers will end by this evening.
Indications are that the low clouds will gradually move/erode from
SW to NE this evening as lake effect ends as temps aloft warm
sufficiently. We will see a weak front try and clip the northern
portion of the area late tonight and early Tuesday. This will help
low clouds to try to redevelop, and to bring a small chc of pcpn to
the U.S.-10 corridor.

That should move out Tuesday morning, and allow skies to try to
clear out once again no later than Tuesday evening.

No significant weather expected through next weekend. A trough axis
moves east on Wednesday with shortwave ridging for Thursday. Mostly
clear skies are expected for the peak of the Geminid meteor shower
on Wednesday night.

Only slight chance POPs in the forecast for Friday with a weak
trough and sfc cold front slowly settling south across the Great
Lakes. A weak clipper could moves along the front over the weekend.
Forecast soundings show little moisture to work with and the mean
path of the sfc low remains north of the forecast area, so little if
any QPF is expected.