Today snow is likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. East wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Tonight
Snow likely before 1am, then patchy snow and freezing drizzle. Cloudy, with a low around 29. East wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Most of the snow today and tonight of 1 to 2 inches near and south of I-96. Expect slippery roads by this evening. Highs will be in the lower to mid-30s. Roads may become slippery once the sunsets just after 5:05 pm tonight.
Yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 37/29 there was no rain or snow and no sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY so far for today is 27 with clear skies currently. For Today the average H/L is 38/26 the record high of 59 was set in 1946 and the record low of -2 was set in 1964. The record snow fall amount is 4.6” in 1995.
DISCUSSION
— LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY GOING TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCES TONIGHT —
AS ONE WOULD EXPECT, THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE HONED IN ON A
GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
FAVORED AREA FOR ANY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-96. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE AREA, AND
STATE.
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW WELL OVER IA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW WILL MOVE ESE THROUGH
THIS EVENING, WITH IT REMAINING CLOSED OFF UNTIL IT MOVES BY THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THE FAVORED AREA OF SNOW WILL BE THE RESULT OF
THE BEST MID LEVEL FGEN, AND THUS THE BEST SNOW RATES. GOOD SNOW
RATES WILL BE NEEDED TO CAUSE ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS WITH GROUND
TEMPS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S F, AND SFC AIR TEMPS IN THE MID
30S EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. WE JUST DON’T HAVE GOOD COLD AIR IN
PLACE WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STILL WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA.
FOR AREAS THAT SEE ANY SNOW, AMOUNTS WILL BE A TRACE UP TO 2 INCHES.
WE DO THINK THAT A NARROW AREA COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE THE BEST BANDED PRECIPITATION OCCURS. WHERE EXACTLY THAT
NARROW AREA WILL BE IS STILL IN QUESTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE SW OF GRAND RAPIDS TOWARD ALLEGAN, VAN BUREN, AND KALAMAZOO
COUNTIES.
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WINDOW IS SOMEWHAT LOW, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
THE AMOUNTS IN CHECK. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME INITIALLY. THEN, WE LOSE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
THIS EVENING, UNSATURATING THE DGZ BY MID-LATE EVENING. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE, OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IF TEMPS ARE ABLE TO COOL
OFF ENOUGH. THIS COULD BE SOMEWHAT IMPACTFUL IF IT ENDS UP FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
— LIGHT SNOW AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT —
WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY, BEFORE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED, AND
CLOSE OFF A BIT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH IT SHOULD END UP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER.
WITH THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH TODAY HAVING SWEPT OUT THE BETTER
DEEP MOISTURE, THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT LEFT FOR THIS WAVE TO ACT ON.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF A SOLID
SATURATED DGZ WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE ONCE
AGAIN. SFC TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD BE
COOLER, AND ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH FOR THIS THREAT AND ANY IMPACTS.
ONCE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WE SHOULD SEE QUIET WEATHER THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE THE RESULT OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT AHEAD OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH OUT WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NE WILL KEEP
COOLER TEMPERATURES FUNNELING IN OVER THE REGION.
— RAIN WEDNESDAY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS BY THURSDAY —
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE, EVEN BEING 4 DAYS OUT, WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT CLOSES OFF, AND PUMPS IN A GOOD
AMOUNT OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT VIA A 50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET AIMED AT THE AREA. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
PROBABLY ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WILL STILL FLUCTUATE WITH TIME. WE
WILL NOT SEE THE RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW RIGHT AWAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS WE WILL GET INTO THE DRY SECTOR. EVENTUALLY, ANY
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY, WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS
COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS IN.
MARINE
OUR NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE SEEING CONDITIONS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW DUE TO THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF IT WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE, UP
AROUND 20 KNOTS AROUND THE 5 MI BORDER. WAVES WILL DEFINITELY HOLD
BELOW CRITERIA WITH THE LACK OF FETCH GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THAT IF THE WINDS END UP HIGH ENOUGH, AN ADVISORY
MIGHT STILL BE NEEDED. THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE WINDS WILL COME DOWN.
Get ready we are going to get hammered with snow and the above normal snowfall pattern is locked in baby! Bring it!
Over 30 inches already out in my hood for the young season DDDDDD…INDY
Incredible snow totals for only mid December!
Ground is white and snowing heavily in South Haven.
https://www.southhavenmi.gov/parks_and_recreation/south_beach_cam.php
Radar indicates that there is an area of snow moving in from the SW. So look for some snow this afternoon. At the current time it is cloudy and 34 here in MBY.
Slim
The sunshine was short lived this morning. About a half hours worth. Now the clouds have thickened up ahead of the system moving in with a temp of 30.