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Slight Chance of Rain – Weather History

Our irises are in full bloom, and we have a large amount of wild flox in the woods surrounding our house.  These are very aromatic flowers, the sweet smell is almost overpowering. We have had only a quarter inch of rain in the past 24 days so it is surprising they are doing so well this year.  We will close out the month with 1.15 inches of rain unless we see some today.

Yesterday we reached 91° after a morning low of 52° in Otsego.

The heat will continue for the next several days, though the humidity will be pretty low compared to some other heat waves. There are a few small chances for hit-or-miss rain showers, including this afternoon and evening. Dry weather through the weekend will increase the potential for fires to spread out of control.

An Action Day is in effect for the following Michigan counties...

Mason, Oceana, Muskegon, Ottawa, Kent, Allegan, Van Buren, and
Kalamazoo.

People and businesses are urged to avoid activities which lead
to ozone formation. These activities include refueling vehicles
or topping off when refueling, using gasoline powered lawn
equipment, and using charcoal lighter fluid. Positive activities
include car pooling, biking to work, delaying or combining
errands, and using water based paints.

It is recommended that active children and adults, and persons
with respiratory diseases such as asthma, limit prolonged
outdoor exertion.

Weather History for SW Michigan

May 28

1955: A series of tornadoes put down an intermittent damage path more than 60 miles long from near Schoolcraft in Kalamazoo County to the east of Grand Ledge in Eaton County. One person was injured northwest of Charlotte as a barn was destroyed. Two homes were unroofed and total damage was estimated at 150,000 dollars.

1991: A tornado damaged homes and destroyed outbuildings near Hart in Oceana County.

May 29

1895: The second heat wave of the month gets underway with record highs of 94 degrees at Grand Rapids and Lansing.

1947: Muskegon records its latest snow on record as some wet snowflakes mix in with cold rain. The high temperature for the day is only 47 degrees after a low of 35.

May 30

1972: A tornado damaged a building under construction five miles west of Jackson.

1989: A tornado struck Van Buren County, moving from east of South Haven to south of Pearl. Several grain elevators were destroyed and windows were blown out of buildings.

May 31

1943: A tornado outbreak hit southern Lower Michigan. Ten people were injured as homes were swept away by a powerful tornado that moved southeast of Morrice in Shiawassee County. A tornado killed livestock and destroyed a barn near Morley in Mecosta County. A home near Coopersville in Ottawa County was unroofed by a tornado and three people were injured. Another tornado struck near Bath in Clinton County destroying one barn.

1954: A tornado struck north of Bangor in Van Buren County. Forty barns were damaged or destroyed and one home was unroofed. Damage totaled about half a million dollars.

1998: A squall line of severe thunderstorms moves across Lower Michigan in the early morning with wind gusts between 90 and 120 mph. Thousands of trees are knocked down and hundreds of homes and businesses suffer damage. Sections of the state are declared a major disaster area and thousands are without power, some for several days.

June 1

1934: Blistering heat begins the month in one of the Dust Bowl summers of the 1930s. The mercury soared to 102 degrees at Grand Rapids and 97 degrees at Lansing. The 102-degree reading at Grand Rapids is tied for the highest June temperature on June 20, 1953.

1943: A violent tornado injured ten people as it moved from Ingham to Shiawassee County and left a path of destruction 20 miles long. Over 250 farm buildings were damaged or destroyed, including 39 homes and 52 barns. Another tornado hit between Lansing and Bath, causing damage to several farms.

1998: West Michigan was cleaning up from the tremendous destruction caused by the squall line of the day before. Meanwhile, on Lake Michigan, water levels continued to rise and fall several feet at some locations through the day as seiches generated by the extreme winds of the squall line continued more than 24 hours after its passage.

June 2

1910: It was a cold day in June as temperatures in the upper 40s in the afternoon were more typical of late March. The high of 47 at Grand Rapids and Muskegon are the coldest high temperatures on record for any day in June. At Lansing, the high was 49 degrees, second only to the 46-degree high on the previous day for being the coldest June day.

1925: Two people were injured as a tornado moved across central Ionia County. A woman was carried 300 feet and left paralyzed and a man was injured in a barn that collapsed.

1950: Thunderstorms dropped one to three inches of rain across the region. Nearly an inch of rain fell in one hour in Grand Rapids, flooding streets and basements. Lansing had a storm total of 2.30 inches, which was a record for the day.

June 3

1945: An early June cold spell brought widespread frost and freezing temperatures from June 3rd to the 5th. The temperature bottomed out at 32 degrees at Grand Rapids on the morning of the 4th, a record for the coldest June temperature and the latest freeze.


Weather History for SE Michigan

May 28

On May 28, 2013, numerous thunderstorms spawned six confirmed tornadoes in Shiawassee and Genesee Counties between the hours of 8:30 and 10:30 pm. Storm surveys revealed 2 EF0, 2 EF1, and 2 EF2 tornadoes had occurred in addition to sporadic wind damage. The damage included numerous snapped trees, lost roofs, and a destroyed barn. The most significant damage occurred a few miles east of Grand Blanc near the intersection of Hegel and Gale Roads, where a house was nearly destroyed in addition to a garage and external storage facilities.

Also on May 28, 2012, afternoon high temperatures soared to 95 in Detroit and 93 in Flint, both all-time records for the month of May.

Also on May 28, 1991, an F1 tornado spoiled dinner plans for the people of Huron County when it hit at 7:10 PM causing roughly $5000 in property damage.

May 29

On May 29, 2011, a thunderstorm complex rolled through southeast Michigan during the peak heating of the day, resulting in scattered wind damage reports across the area, mainly south of Interstate 69. Embedded circulations within the line of thunderstorms lead to localized wind gusts to 80 mph with one EF1 tornado over southern Shiawassee County.

May 30

On May 30, 1953, In the Detroit area, Softball size hail was recorded.

May 31

On May 31, 1998, a severe squall line moved through all of Lower Michigan during the early morning hours. Wind gusts were measured at 86 mph at the Tri-Cities Airport and at 81 mph at the Essexville Coast Guard.

On May 31, 1999, an F2 tornado moved through the city of Midland at 5:38 PM causing destruction for 2 miles. The total amount of damage caused by this tornado was estimated to be $150,000. This tornado ties with an F2 tornado that moved through Midland County on April 14, 1974, as the strongest tornado to ever hit Midland County.

Also on May 31, 2011, an EF1 tornado with maximum winds estimated to 95 mph hit central Bay County. The path width was 200 yards with a path length of 8.4 miles. The tornado started near Parish Road and 11-mile road just west of the community of Beaver. The tornado then moved through Beaver, crossed Interstate 75, and finally across the south part of Linwood before moving out to Saginaw Bay. A barn was destroyed and homes were damaged near Beaver, mostly to garages and roofing material. Numerous trees were uprooted with snapped large limbs.

June 1

On June 1, 2019, a round of afternoon severe thunderstorms brought damaging wind gusts and hail up to half dollar size across Lenawee and Monroe Counties as well as the Metro Detroit area.

On June 1, 1973, an F1 tornado hit Saginaw County at 6:15 PM and caused $250,000 in damage.

Also, on June 1 in 1910, the temperature rose to 104 degrees in Saginaw County. This is the earliest a 100-degree day has occurred in the year for our County Warning Area.

June 2

On June 2, 1988 rain was actually recorded at Saginaw (.11), Flint (.47), and Detroit (.37). This was one of just three days in June 1988 that had rainfall. This led to the driest June on record in Flint (.63 inches total) and Saginaw (.61 inches), and the second driest in Detroit (.97 inches).

On June 2, 1971, an F1 tornado hit Genesee County at 5:12 PM and caused $250,000 in damage.

June 3

On June 3, 2007, the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry combined with an upper low pressure produced widespread heavy rainfall. The heaviest of the rain fell over southwest Livingston County with estimates of up to 5 inches. This caused some flooded roads but also raised lake levels on the many lakes in that area, threatening local property.

Also on June 3, 1973, two F0 tornadoes hit Genesee County between 5:15 and 5:30 PM, but only caused about $3,000 in damage.


Grand Rapids Forecast

5 31 grr


Forecast Discussion

We continue to expect a few more showers and even an isolated storm
to form this afternoon and evening focused on the western half of
the area. High pressure at the sfc and aloft remains in control of
the weather over the region.

The difference from a couple of days ago that facilitates the rain
chances (although limited) is the better moisture that has arrived
over the area. Dew points yesterday were mainly in the 50s, and that
allowed for more cumulus development, and even an isolated shower.
Today, we will see some lower 60s dew points near the lake breeze
boundary. Temps near 90 and dew points in the lower 60s will produce
around 1000 J/kg of ML CAPE to work with. Good convergence along the
lake breeze (SE flow inland against NW lake breeze) will help to pop
the few showers and storms. The flow aloft and the sfc being weak
will keep deep layer shear values quite low, and severe potential
very low. Most of the showers and storms will be of the pulse
variety with quick downpours, and outflow boundaries setting off
additional convection. These will die off toward sunset.

Conditions will be somewhat similar on Thursday afternoon, but there
are some minor differences that would support a little less coverage
of any pop up showers/isolated storms. Instability is fairly similar
with ML CAPEs expected to build up to around 1000 J/kg once again
with temps near 90F and dew points in the lower 60s. The difference
is that the convergence along the lake breeze may not be as
pronounced as the flow will be more from SE initially, then becoming
from the SSW as the lake breeze develops.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023

Daytime lake breeze near the shoreline aside, high temperatures in
the 90s are likely for Friday and possible again Saturday. The
center of high pressure will be relocating from the eastern Great
Lakes to N/NW of the Great Lakes at the time, turning surface winds
more from the northeast. However, a large plume of 17-18 C air at
850 mb will have been wrapped in over the region (according to the
ECMWF ensemble) on Friday. These 850 temps are good enough to be in
the 90th percentile in mid July based on the DTX sounding history,
and in early June it`s not very far from record warm. The air Fri is
also likely to be drier than the slightly more humid air of Wed/Thu,
and relative humidity could drop to about 20 percent during the day.

Fire weather concerns will remain higher than usual through the
weekend, especially in the northern conifer forests. Slightly less-
dry air may flow through on Saturday, though winds may be a little
breezier on both Sat and Sun. Somewhat cooler (less hot) air may
move through on Sun but it could be very dry again.

Members within the ECMWF and Canadian ensembles diverge quite a bit
with temperature solutions for our area early next week, depending
on the westward extent of the upper level trough and cooler air
digging into Quebec and New England. Some relief from the heat does
appear likely, though precipitation chances will remain limited.
newest oldest
Jesse (Montcalm co)
Jesse (Montcalm co)

Grand rapids school closures for tomorrow due to excessive heat.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

No kidding? Wow.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

You have got to be kidding me! Ridiculous!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

More records broken. Gaylord shattered the old record.

From NWS Gaylord:

Record highs set on May 31st, 2023:

Pellston: 90°F (previous: 88 on May 31st, 2011)

Gaylord: 93°F… breaks the previous daily record of 87°F set in 2011, along with the all-time May monthly maximum temperature of 92°F set on May 25, 2010.

#MIwx

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
523 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023

At 522 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles north of
Baldwin, and is nearly stationary.

HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

At least parts of the state are getting some heavy rain!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

There might be something to that RealFeel value. I was just sitting out back in the shade and with the breeze and low humidity, it feels quite pleasant. I walked out to the mailbox in the sun and it feels uncomfortably hot.

Mookie
Mookie

Makes perfect sense! Also factors in wind which I like.

Andy W
Andy W

Yep, far more accurate than GRR NWS at this point!

Slim

If the updated CPC long range guess for June plays out look for more warm/hot dry days ahead
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
Slim

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I’m not liking the below average precipitation. 🙁

Jesse (Montcalm co)
Jesse (Montcalm co)

Same. I really hope we get a good soaker soon.

Andy W
Andy W

Who knew?!?!

Andy W
Andy W

Just another warmer than normal 90 degree day in GR!! Wow!! I love long summers!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Things can be spun whichever way you want and you can twist data to fit a narrative but 2 things are fact.

1: Averages are only in the 70’s right now, so to get a 90 degree day is fairly impressive. Temps 15+ above average high is always impressive regardless the time of year. Same can be said about 15+ degrees cooler than the average.
2. A string of 90 degree days this time of year, while not unheard of, is unusual and does not happen often.

Slim

For Michigan this is very rare to have this many possible days this warm. Last time was in the 1930’s
Slim

INDY
INDY

Next Wednesday im going to the Whitecaps weather looks great high of 78 I will take it …INDY

Slim

Hey Indy I will be working that night.
Slim

INDY
INDY

Sweet I will come look for you … what baseline …INDY

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Here’s something interesting. The high/low for May 31st last year here was 88/70. The high was a bit cooler last year but the low was much warmer than this year.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

The current heat index in GR is only 88 degrees!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Only? Considering the average high is 75, I’d say that’s pretty warm.

Andy W
Andy W

Heck even with the GRR NWS reading a few degrees or so lower than actual air temps they’re still showing 90 degrees! WHAT A HEAT WAVE!!! Scorching!

Andy W
Andy W

Yeah Mookie, I would follow what AccuWeather is saying. Thanks to your investigation and then receiving written confirmation from GRR NWS, that there were “issues” with their temperature readings, I would definitely trust AccuWeather or Weather.com over anything GRR NWS puts out. Not until GRR NWS confirms that they have recalibrated their equipment, until then it’s better to follow LAN NWS.

Mookie
Mookie

Exactly right!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Accuweather is obviously clueless! Incredible!

Andy W
Andy W

Looks like, we’re still seeing plenty of oranges in the new CPC! We’re entrenched in a hot pattern, get used to it!!

Mookie
Mookie

Will June be our 14th warm month in a row? Looking pretty likely already…

Andy W
Andy W

Oh yeah, I would mark it down for sure!! Fourteen months in a row of warmer than normal temps is INCREDIBLE!!! How could that be with all the Cold Weather propaganda on here?!?!?? WOW!!!

Mookie
Mookie

I hope you like it warm for at least another 2 weeks! I love long summers!

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INDY
INDY

You want to cool off go to lake Michigan water tenps only in the 50’s pretty cool for end of May June standards yeahhhhh …INDY

Mookie
Mookie

“The temperature and other indices do not tell the whole story of how weather conditions make us feel,” said Dr. Joel N. Myers, AccuWeather founder and CEO and co-inventor of the AccuWeather RealFeel Temperature. “Other weather variables in addition to temperature, such as sunlight, humidity, wind, precipitation, and a multitude of other factors, can impact our comfort or discomfort outside and may even cause harm or illness. The AccuWeather RealFeel Temperature Guide is the only tool that works in all weather conditions and translates into actionable behavior choices.”

Slim

I have no issue with a so call “real feel” guess. But remember come winter the “real feel” can and will be much colder than the air temperature. And of course it is hotter in the sun than in the shade. Temperatures in the sun today will be in the upper 90’s to over 100.
Slim

INDY
INDY

Havent turned the ac on yet 60’s at night is air conditioning for me with a fan in the window keep the humidity away thank you ….INDY

Mookie
Mookie

Is your furnace still on? You’re doing something wrong LOL

Mookie
Mookie

RealFeel® Sun 98°

RealFeel Shade™ 87°

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Here is the actual definition of these terms

“In the summer, the feels-like temperature is also called the heat index. The heat index is a measure of how hot the air feels when taking into account the combination of the air temperature and the relative humidity or dew point”

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Breaking news>>>the “real feel and the heat index” are exactly the same thing! Mark it down and remember the facts! We will not be seeing any real feel or heat indexes anywhere near 100 degrees! The warm weather hype is off the charts!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Breaking news! There are no heat indexes approaching 100 degrees in Kent county and the mini heat wave will be over in a few days! Forget 90 degrees and bring on the low to mid 70’s!

Mookie
Mookie

Accuweather’s “real feel” is not a heat index. But I do think it’s more accurate of how it feels outside. I don’t believe the heat index even takes the sun into account which is strange because we all know it’s way hotter in the sun.

INDY
INDY

Thank goodness the humidity is low reminds me of Last Summer we didn’t have a lot humidity nothing like prior years ….INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

The heat index is lower than the actual temperature! Incredible!

Mookie
Mookie

Back to back 90 degree days at GR in May! Wow!

Muskegon just made a new record high as well.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

I’m on the east side of Muskegon right now and you can clearly see the lake breeze. It’s set up just east of US31. Any showers/storms should develop along and just east of that.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

It doesn’t get any better than this for weather. Upper 80s low 90s and sunny. I could easily take this all summer long.

Andy W
Andy W

Get ready for another big heat wave! The overall hot pattern is locked in, so get used to it! Heat indexes near 100, with barely a cloud in the sky! Wow just wow, WOW! Incredible May Heat!!!!

Mookie
Mookie

Accuweather is reporting a real feel index of 98 degrees currently

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Where in Southern Georgia? The current heat index in GR is 87 degrees! Wow just wow!

INDY
INDY

Check out the blue coming for the first two weeks of June the new out look is out or maybe I am color blinded lol.. INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

What? Blue = cooler weather coming! How is that possible with all this warm weather hype! Incredible!

Mookie
Mookie

Eeeee Eeeee Blowtorch warning remains in effect!

Slim

Grass is turning brown so it must be a “blowtorch”
Slim

Mookie
Mookie

Can we see 5 90+ days in a row in late May/early June per WOOD’s current forecast?

That would be one of our most impressive heat waves we’ve seen in some time, especially for the time of year.

Slim

If it plays out and there are 5 days in a row of 90 or better it would be among the longest string of 90 day or better since 1934. In 1934 Grand Rapids had 6 days in a row of 90 or better from May 31st to June 5th At Lansing there were 6 days of 90 or better from May 29th to June 3rd in 1895 (Grand Rapids did not have records for that time) At Detroit there were 6 days in a row from June 1st to June 6th in 1925 and 5 days in a row… Read more »

Slim

As for the last time there have been 6 days or more in a row of 90 or better there were 7 days in a row of 90 or better in 2012. Not sure if there were others or not. Remember that “heat waves” in Michigan are short and we do not have a lot of days of 90 or better on average. Note we have NOT had the 90° string yet.
Slim

INDY
INDY

Has Gr even hit 90 degrees yet?? I just got home from Ludington Michigan where temperatures started out in the 60’s Friday ended in the 80’s yesterday with a water temp of 48 brrrrr just a few kids swimming…. but 6 days of 90’s in GR hmmmmm INDY

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Official temp at GR yesterday was 90. Interestingly, the Lake Michigan water temp in Green Bay yesterday was 59.9 degrees. Makes sense, though. We’ve had a easterly breeze lately blowing the warm water over to the west side of the lake.

Mookie
Mookie

As anticipated, May will be our 13th warm month in a row! What a streak of warm temps!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

We are definitely starting and ending May with some extreme high temps. May 1st/2nd were in the low-mid 40s, May 30th/31st are in the low 90s

Mookie
Mookie

Wow lots of 90’s yesterday!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

One of the worst natural disasters in West Michigan history hit 25 years ago today. The famous Derecho of 1998. It’s incredible how powerful and destructive it really was. My parents, me and my sister had just moved into a new home in Byron Center. Power was out for well over a week. An event like that could happen again but it’s a very rare event.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may30-311998page.htm

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

I was only 5 months old so I don’t remember, but I technically lived through it!

*SS*
*SS*

Thanks Nathan….for making me feel old. LOL!!!

Slim

In looking at Weather History. That heat wave in 1895 that started on May 29th (it really started on the 28th with a high of 86) but from May 29th to June 3rd there were 6 days in a row of 90 or better at Lansing with 2 days of 93, one day at 94, 2 days at 95 and one day of 97. The whole summer had 44 days of 90 or better. Night time lows were cool so the DP must have been low most of the time. June and July were dry. There are no records for… Read more »

Slim

With a high of 92 Muskegon set a new record high for May 30th the old record of 90 was set in 2018. At Grand Rapids and Lansing, the high was 90 that is the 2nd warmest reading at Grand Rapids and the 3 warmest at Lansing so over all a very hot late May day. The overnight low here in MBY so far is a warm 65 the official low so far is 64. The current temperature is now 66 here in MBY
Slim

Slim

For today the average H/L is 75/54 the record high of 95 was set in 1934 and the record low of 36 was set in 1966. The record rain fall of 1.37” fell in 1909. The next 4 days look to continue to be hot and maybe dry. There is a 30% chance of a thunderstorm today and around a 20% chance tomorrow. Highs look to be around 90 until Sunday before cooling down.
Slim

*SS*
*SS*

Michael,
What color of irises do you have? Ours are in full bloom as well. I have about 5 different colors. A couple different yellows, purple and yellow, burgundy & purple.. I wish they lasted longer they are so beautiful.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Irises are my mother’s favorite flower. 😀

Stay cool, everyone!

*SS*
*SS*

All of my plants came from family members…so I think of them..
The colors are so stunning… I know why they are your mom’s favorite…one of mine too.