I know it will not be too much longer before someone points out that some trees are “already changing color” That report seems to happen every year. Well with many schools already having started their fall classes I thought it would be a good time to see when the first 32° day is along with the latest and the earliest dates. For this I will start in the UP and work my way down south.
Marquette the average first 32 date September 22. earliest August 18, 1968, latest October 18, 2021.
Houghton Average first 32 date October 3rd. earliest September 6th 1952 latest November 6th 1900.
Munising Average first 32 date September 24th earliest August 2nd 1928 latest November 6th 1900.
Alberta Average first 32 date September 19th earliest August 15th 1976 latest October 17th 2021.
Sault Ste Marie average first 32 date October 1st earliest August 22nd 1950 latest October 28th 1963.
Northern Lower Michigan
Alpena average first 32 date September 22nd earliest August 21st 1922 latest October 28th 1963
Pelston average first 32 date September 11th earliest August 2nd 1959 latest October 11th 2014.
Traverse City average first 32 date October 7th earliest August 29th 1982 latest November 1st 1971
Houghton Lake Average first 32 date September 12th earliest August 1st 1947 latest October 25th 1995.
West Branch Average first 32 date September 22nd earliest August 21st 1934 latest October 29th 1963.
Southeast Michigan
Saginaw average first 32 date is October 13th earliest September 12th 1943 latest November 9th 1938.
Flint Average first 32 date is October 9th earliest September 17th, 2013, latest November 6th 1971.
Detroit average first 32 date is October 22nd earliest September 22nd, 1974, latest November 15th 1946.
Bad axe Average first 32 date is October 10th earliest September 8th, 1956, latest November 7th 1971.
Port Huron average first 32 date is October 21 earliest September 12th, 1956, latest November 22nd 1994.
SW Michigan
Grand Rapids average first 32 date is October 13th earliest September 3rd, 1946, latest November 14th 1918’
Lansing average first 32 date is October 1st earliest August 3rd, 1984, latest October 28th 1920.
Muskegon average first 32 date is October 14th earliest September 8th, 1951, latest November 25th, 1931.
Kalamazoo average first 32 date is October 13th earliest September 19th, 1916, latest November 11th, 1994.
It is a rather good bet that many areas of Michigan will see a 32° low in the next 2 months or so.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 79/53 there was no rainfall the highest wind gust was 24 MPH out of the SW there was 63% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is now down to 80/60 the record high of 98 was set in 1947 and again in 1948 the coldest high of 64 was set in 1923 and 1917. The record low of 40 was set in 1942 and 1946. The warmest low of 74 was set in 1910. The record rainfall of 1.56” fell in 1993.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
340 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2024
KEY MESSAGES
– WARMING CONTINUES THROUGH WEEKEND, SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS SUNDAY
– SUMMER HEATWAVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
– RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2024
– WARMING CONTINUES THROUGH WEEKEND, CHANCES SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
AND OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS CONTINUES A WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND
THAT WILL KEEP HEAT BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE WEEK AHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RIPPLE DOWN
THE EASTWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH COULD HAVE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
STILL LEANING AWAY FROM THE AMBITIOUS SHORT RANGE CAMS. HOWEVER,
LATEST HREF HAS A WEAK JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AFTER
00Z SUNDAY. THAT JET STREAK, COUPLED WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE
AND TROUGH COULD BRING JUST ENOUGH SHEAR, WITH THE AVAILABLE CAPE,
TO ALLOW FOR STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AS THAT TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY, ANY LINGERING JET STREAK
COULD GIVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THAT COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEAT, AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, COULD ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, MID LEVELS LOOK FAIRLY DRY AND GIVING THE
BUILDING HIGH THERE ARE MULTIPLE FACTORS THAT COULD INHIBIT ANY
STORM FORMATION.
– SUMMER HEATWAVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, OUR WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY. WE
WILL BE ON THE HOT, HUMID, AND MOSTLY DRY END OF THIS RIDGE, LEADING
TO AN ABRUPT RETURN TO SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE HOTTEST DAY – WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 23C LEADING TO
LOWER 90S AT THE SURFACE. WITH DEWPOINTS MAKING A RUN AT 70F, THE
HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 90S OR POTENTIALLY
EVEN MAKING A RUN AT TRIPLE DIGITS.
IN RECENT DAYS, THE GLOBAL MODELS WERE HINTING THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MIGHT CROSS OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME AND CREATE SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT RECENT
MODEL TRENDS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. INSTEAD, IT NOW
LOOKS LIKELY THAT A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE UPCOMING
HEATWAVE – KEEPING A LID ON OUR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
– RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH, DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO A MORE
SEASONABLE LOWER 80S RANGE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN MORE COHERENTLY, RESULTING IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids
Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
A 20 percent chance of showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Light and variable wind.
Sunday
A 10 percent chance of showers before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Light and variable wind.
Monday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 72.
Tuesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 92.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Friday
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
I can’t wait till the post says “ Signs of Winer are here”!
Slim…our cherry trees are dropping leaves slowly…but they are always earlier than others
Today marks 1 year since the very significant and destructive storms of August 24,2023. I’ll never forget that event.
That storm went right overhead and the tornado dropped just east of here. It was a dandy of a storm.