Showers Ending this Morning

Yesterday our high was 66° with a morning low of 32°.  We have light rain falling at 5:30 am, this system will move out later this morning diminishing to a scattered shower this afternoon.  We have a pleasant fall weekend shaping up with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

Weather History

1962: Snow accumulates an inch or two across southwest Lower Michigan as an October cold snap continues. Low temperatures fall into the 20s at most locations for four straight days from the 24th to the 27th.

On October 25, 1963, the high temperature rose to 82 degrees in Detroit and 81 degrees in Flint. Both set new records for the date that still stands today.

NWS Forecast

Forecast Discussion

- Rain this morning, then clearing late

We are watching the widespread stratiform area of rain out to our
west steadily moving toward the forecast area. The rain lines up
really well at the nose of the low level jet axis that is also
moving toward the area.

There was quite a bit of lightning earlier across Wisconsin with
this precipitation. It has diminished significantly as it moves east
away from the better instability, and into the initially drier air.
The 750 mb based Lifted Index product depicts this well based on
current lightning plots. That said, the model progs and radar trends
show lightning will be possible over the next few hours along the I-
94 corridor.

The low level jet axis will move out after 12z this morning, and the
cold front will follow within a few hours. The cold frontal passage
should end most of the rain shower activity, and bring in cold air
stratocumulus clouds behind it. The clouds will gradually thin out
later in the afternoon, and then clear out tonight.

Confluent flow aloft downstream of the upper ridge, and the center
of high pressure at the sfc will bring dry and seasonable
temperatures to the area. Highs on Saturday behind the front should
max out well into the 50s.

- Remaining Dry Sunday and Monday, Moderating Temps

After a cold Saturday night with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s
under the center of the sfc high, temps begin to moderate Sunday and
especially on Monday as the high slips away. Southerly flow sends
highs back into the 60s by Monday although an increase in high level
cloudiness is likely by then in the warm advection pattern.

- Near Record Warmth Next Tuesday and Wednesday, Windy

Ensemble temperature guidance continues to show very little spread
on Tuesday and Wednesday with almost every member showing highs in
in the mid 70s inland from Lk MI. These high confidence readings
will be flirting with record highs on both days. Record high minimum
temps are also quite possible for Tuesday night/Wed Morning (10/30)
when readings will probably hold into the lower to mid 60s in the
strong southerly flow.

Guidance also continues to show strong support for wind gusts in
excess of 30 mph on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Fortunately fire
weather concerns should be tempered by increasing low level moisture
with sfc dew points rising into the mid 50s.

There is a risk of showers and thunderstorms Monday night and early
Tuesday, especially north of I-96, on the nose of a 50 kt H8 jet and
incoming higher PWATs over 1"; an elevated warm front of sorts.

- Rain Chances Ramp Up by Halloween

The majority of Tuesday and Wednesday look dry due to the lack of
forcing within "warm sector" air mass east of a frontal zone over
the central U.S.. However by Halloween that frontal zone is expected
to be nearby/overhead and most ensemble members are showing rainfall
occuring. Confidence is still low though regarding the frontal
timing but we do have cooler temps arriving by Friday with the
assumption that the front passes through by then.