Shorter winters?

In the last several years from time to time there has been talk of the trend for “shorter” winters. In looking at history there have been very few winters where it has been cold from the start to the end. That can be said for most summers as well as few have been “hot” from start to the end as well. In looking at past winters and particularly at past Februarys there have been 14 years when the temperature has shot up in the 60’s There have been a additional 55 February’s when it has reached 50 or better for a total of 70 years when it has gotten to 50 or better in February. Just last year the temperature shot up to 73 on February 27^th the 1^st time it has reached 70 in February at Grand Rapids and the new all-time record for the month.

The warmest day in any February so far was the 73 last year. Last year was also had the warmest mean of any February with a mean of 35.4.  A 69 recorded on February 11, 1969. That February ended up with a mean of 31.3 or +4.5. In February 1976 after a cold January and a cold start to February the temperature shot up to 57 on February 24^th and reached 67 on the 27^th and while there was as much as 16” of snow on the ground that February it was all gone by the 25^th It also reached 67 if February 1930 once again after a cold January. In 1930 the highs reached the upper 50’s to the upper 60’s from 19^th to the 25^th In February 2017 the high reached 54 on the 17^th and for 7 days highs ranged from the upper 50’s to the upper 60’s with highs of 62 on the 19^th and 60 on the 20^th and reached all the way up to 66 on 22^nd February 2017 with a mean of 34.7 is the warmest February on record. The very next year in 2018 the high reached 63 on the 20^th and 61 on the 27^th and 60 on the 28^th  Other years that have reached 60 or better in February are 1944, 1932, 2000, 2016, 2009, 1954, 1983, and 1925.

On average the warmest days in December are 53 January 48 and February 50. The mean so far this meteorological winter at Grand Rapids this winter is now at 26.6° The average mean at this point is 25.5° The coldest low this winter at Grand Rapids so far is -6 the annual average lowest reading is -7. The deepest snow depth so far is 6” the average deepest snow depth at Grand Rapids for the winter season is 11” At the current time there has been 49 days this winter with 1” or more on the ground. For the winter season the average number of days with 1” or more on the ground is 70. So, we have a good chance of reaching that. As of today, the Winter Severity Index for Grand Rapids is still in the moderate range.

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/AWSSI/chart?stn=GRRthr

THE GRAND RAPIDS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 7, 2025

The H/L was 28/14 there was a trace of snowfall and there are trace amounts of snow on the ground. The highest wind gust was 42 MPH out of the NW. There was 58% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 32/18 the record high of 60 was in 1925 the coldest high of 3 was in 1934. The record low of -12 was in 1974 the warmest low of 49 was in 1925. The most precipitation was 0.75” in 1900 the most snowfall of 5.4” was in 1952 the most on the ground was 23” in 2014.

We now have 7 days of February 2025 in the record books and so far the mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 26.1° that is a departure of +1.6° the high so far this month is 37 and the low so far is 14.  There has been 0.16” of precipitation that is a departure of -0.29” So far 2.3” of snow has fallen that is a departure of -2.6” the most snow on the ground so far is just 1” at this time there are just trace amounts of snow on the ground. Here in MBY there are many areas of 1 to 3” on the ground with areas the get sun showing bare ground.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
341 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
  
- SYSTEM SNOW SLIDING THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT  
  
- CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY  
  
- ADDITIONAL SNOW WITH OHIO VALLEY LOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY  
  

  
   
DISCUSSION  
  
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2025  
  
- SYSTEM SNOW SLIDING THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT  
  
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES EARLY THIS  
MORNING WITH A LOW IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS  
SHOW SNOW SPREADING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE  
GREAT LAKES WELL AWAY FROM THE LOW. SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL  
LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WHAT IS PRODUCING THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
LOW...NAMELY AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. LEFT EXIT REGION LIFT WILL  
SPREAD EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS  
MORNING...PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF  
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE OKLAHOMA SURFACE LOW WILL MAKE ITS  
CLOSEST APPROACH TO US THIS AFTERNOON MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN  
INDIANA. THIS LOW WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN  
LOWER MICHIGAN.  
  
WE ARE BY FAR EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST MOST IMPACTFUL SNOW TO FALL  
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG THE U.S. 10 ROW OF COUNTIES IN  
OUR AREA. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT NOW FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.  
WE EXPECT TOTALS TO BE AROUND 6 INCHES IN THE U.S. 10 ROW OF  
COUNTIES FROM LUDINGTON OVER TO CLARE AND HARRISON. THE NEXT ROW  
TO THE SOUTH AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF SNOW MORE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH  
RANGE.   
  
ELSEWHERE, LIFT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND MORE IMPORTANTLY  
MOISTURE DEPTH IS LACKING. A STARK DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT  
IS NOTED LOOKING AT I-94 OVERVIEWS IN BUFKIT WHERE LIMITED  
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE VS VERY DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT AT CADILLAC.  
OUTSIDE OVER OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES MENTIONED ABOVE, WE  
ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT INCH OR LESS TOTALS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF  
THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SLEET OR  
FREEZING RAIN MIX IN ACROSS THE I-94 ROW OF COUNTIES AS MOISTURE  
IS NOT ALWAYS IN PLACE WITHIN THE DGZ WITH THIS EVENING. GIVEN  
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WHERE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS CAN EASILY BE  
MITIGATED WITH SALT AND THE FACT THAT THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN  
WILL FALL ONTO SNOW ALLOWING FOR TRACTION TO OCCUR, WE ARE NOT  
ISSUING ANY HEADLINES OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SNOW  
WILL TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT.  
  
- CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY  
  
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND  
TUESDAY TIME FRAME BRINGING A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A WAVE THAT WILL BE PASSING  
OFF TO OUR NORTH. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING TO  
A HALF INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS.  
  
- ADDITIONAL SNOW WITH OHIO VALLEY LOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY  
  
ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A LOW  
THAT MOVES MUCH CLOSER TO OUR AREA THAN THE ONE TODAY. THE LOW IS  
FORECAST TO MOVE TO LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT A  
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING. EARLY  
INDICATION WOULD BE FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  
  
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE UPCOMING 7 DAYS AND  
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SNOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WINTER IS GOING  
ANYWHERE. AT LEAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.