A side note to begin the post today we shout out “we are debt-free!” having paid off our mortgage yesterday. This is a great feeling after living fairly frugally since all the kids have moved away and have had children of their own. We have 12 grandkids the oldest being 18 and the youngest two years old. We have only bought used cars which we could pay off quickly and pay off the credit card monthly. So, for you younger people out there make sure you contribute to a 401k or other retirement investment so you can have a comfortable retirement. I took an early retirement three years ago so I can enjoy it.
We have a warm 74° this morning (at 6 am). We had no rain overnight here in Otsego. This is the convective outlook summary from the SPC for today:
Isolated strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from the lower Great Lakes region into the mid Mississippi Valley and parts of the central/southern Plains today. Damaging wind gusts should be the main threat.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely today, mainly before 3 pm. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a west wind of 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. The chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
-- Thunderstorm potential today -- Elevated storms this morning in Central Michigan are forming off 925-850 mb moisture transport convergence and closer proximity to the upper level trough, and repeating batches of heavy downpours could cause minor flooding this morning, particularly in Mason and Lake counties where soil moisture is relatively high. The QLCS in northern Illinois is trending less impressive as it encounters less dynamic support. The longer into the morning it persists in southern Iowa through northwest Indiana may hinder development of more surface-based convection in southern Michigan this afternoon. If diurnal convection matures before exiting our eastern CWA, 0-3 km shear around 30 knots could support multicell segments and a moderate amount of DCAPE (depends on if any mid-level dry layers are present) may allow for localized wind gusts capable of tree limb damage. The orientation of the cold front or mid-level focus for storm development relative to the 0-3 km shear vector is closer to parallel than it is perpendicular, so this would also limit the potential for a stronger QLCS to develop. -- Chance of Southern Michigan heavy rain Friday night -- Models remain in quite a bit of disagreement regarding the extent to which a weak upper level wave along the front from Missouri on Friday augments with convection / possible MCV in Illinois, which underneath the right-entrance region of the upper jet may develop a more robust low through a good depth of the troposphere in northern Indiana by Friday night. The ECMWF, GFS, and many of their ensemble members provide southern Michigan with a swath of heavy rain Friday night north of the surface low, though they may be suffering from convective feedback and overdeveloping the low. The majority of the HREF members keep the Friday night convection south of Michigan.