Still a bit early to make any winter forecast but I thought I would throw this out there. The GFS anomaly forecast showing continued warmth across a good portion of the U.S. and an early cool down in Siberia and eastern Eurasia.
Below is the CPC guess for the coming weekend into next week – a nearly 100% chance of above-normal temps coming our way with a chance of above-normal rainfall, which in perspective haven’t been forthcoming as the graphics have indicated as of late in regards to rainfall.
The SPC has central Michigan in a marginal risk for severe storms today.
As a low-amplitude upper-level feature moves across the Great Lakes, deep-layer shear will increase to 50-60 kt. This will occur nearly parallel to the surface front, which will provide weak convergence and focus for development. Forecast soundings reveal relatively poor lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb, and daytime heating will not play much of a role. Instead, gradual moistening in the 850-700 mb layer combined with improving large-scale ascent should initiate elevated storms across eastern WI and into Lower MI, where models suggest increasing intensity through 00Z. The threat is expected to cross southwest Ontario and continue across southern NY and perhaps far northern PA during the evening. Other clusters of storms may persist across southern New England as well. Given the strength of the deep-layer shear, and favorably strong wind speeds in the 850-700 mb layer, a damaging wind threat may still materialized despite MLCAPE of only 1000-1500 J/kg and weak low-level lapse rates. A more precise, narrow corridor of higher wind probabilities could be needed in later outlooks should model trends remain favorable. Sporadic hail will also be possible given the cool midlevel temperatures and ample deep-layer shear.
Yesterday we reached 81° with a low of 53°. At 5:30 this morning we have a warm 68°. Our last decent rainfall was on August 26th, we have gone 16 days with meager precipitation measured in the hundredths.
Sunrise today is 7:20, sunset is 7:57 pm…
- Risk for severe weather today Deep layer shear remains favorable for organized convection today into tonight. The latest HRRR is showing the convection currently in NE rolling into northern parts of our CWA this afternoon. Forecast CAPE looks favorable for strong to potentially severe convection. Upper level diffluence and PWAT values will also be on the increase during this time. As a result we believe an area of thunderstorms will be tracking and strengthening through northern parts of the CWA this afternoon. We will feature likely POPs for that region which includes Big Rapids and Mt Pleasant. The 18z to 22z window looks most favorable. Due to the elevated nature of the instability...large hail and perhaps damaging winds appear to be the main risks. Any storms will be track rapidly east. - Challenging temperature forecast next few days With the surface front slipping slowly south through the CWA through Monday...there will be challenges with the temperature forecast. Very warm conditions are expected south of the front today...across Kalamazoo...Battle Creek and Jackson. The storms are expected to stay north of the sites today as well. Based on 925 mb temps...max temps today should reach well into the 80s. As the moisture pools along the frontal zone...dewpoints will also be on the rise. Max apparent T values may top 90 degrees down there. Further north with clouds and some storms...max temp values will likely stay in the 70s for today. The front slips further south on Monday. The clouds and shower risk will also be further south. Max temperature values may struggle to top 80 degrees along the Interstate 94 corridor...with most locations in the CWA to see highs in the 70s. - Another round of storms for Tuesday Guidance shows a mid level wave tracking through the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. The combination of favorable 0 to 6 km Bulk Shear Magnitude and deeper instability supports a risk for organized convection. We will increase the POPs then and highlight the risk in the HWO. Models are in relative agreement on this