Scattered Showers & Storms

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 11

Still a bit early to make any winter forecast but I thought I would throw this out there.  The GFS anomaly forecast showing continued warmth across a good portion of the U.S. and an early cool down in Siberia and eastern Eurasia.

 

Below is the CPC guess for the coming weekend into next week – a nearly 100% chance of above-normal temps coming our way with a chance of above-normal rainfall, which in perspective haven’t been forthcoming as the graphics have indicated as of late in regards to rainfall.

 

The SPC has central Michigan in a marginal risk for severe storms today.

As a low-amplitude upper-level feature moves across the Great Lakes,
   deep-layer shear will increase to 50-60 kt. This will occur nearly
   parallel to the surface front, which will provide weak convergence
   and focus for development. 

   Forecast soundings reveal relatively poor lapse rates from the
   surface to 700 mb, and daytime heating will not play much of a role.
   Instead, gradual moistening in the 850-700 mb layer combined with
   improving large-scale ascent should initiate elevated storms across
   eastern WI and into Lower MI, where models suggest increasing
   intensity through 00Z. The threat is expected to cross southwest
   Ontario and continue across southern NY and perhaps far northern PA
   during the evening. Other clusters of storms may persist across
   southern New England as well. 

   Given the strength of the deep-layer shear, and favorably strong
   wind speeds in the 850-700 mb layer, a damaging wind threat may
   still materialized despite MLCAPE of only 1000-1500 J/kg and weak
   low-level lapse rates. A more precise, narrow corridor of higher
   wind probabilities could be needed in later outlooks should model
   trends remain favorable. Sporadic hail will also be possible given
   the cool midlevel temperatures and ample deep-layer shear.

 

Yesterday we reached 81° with a low of 53°.  At 5:30 this morning we have a warm 68°.  Our last decent rainfall was on August 26th, we have gone 16 days with meager precipitation measured in the hundredths.

Sunrise today is 7:20, sunset is 7:57 pm…

 

Forecast Discussion

- Risk for severe weather today

Deep layer shear remains favorable for organized convection today
into tonight. The latest HRRR is showing the convection currently
in NE rolling into northern parts of our CWA this afternoon.
Forecast CAPE looks favorable for strong to potentially severe
convection. Upper level diffluence and PWAT values will also be on
the increase during this time. As a result we believe an area of
thunderstorms will be tracking and strengthening through northern
parts of the CWA this afternoon. We will feature likely POPs for
that region which includes Big Rapids and Mt Pleasant. The 18z to
22z window looks most favorable. Due to the elevated nature of the
instability...large hail and perhaps damaging winds appear to be
the main risks. Any storms will be track rapidly east.

- Challenging temperature forecast next few days

With the surface front slipping slowly south through the CWA
through Monday...there will be challenges with the temperature
forecast. Very warm conditions are expected south of the front
today...across Kalamazoo...Battle Creek and Jackson. The storms
are expected to stay north of the sites today as well. Based on
925 mb temps...max temps today should reach well into the 80s. As
the moisture pools along the frontal zone...dewpoints will also be
on the rise. Max apparent T values may top 90 degrees down there.
Further north with clouds and some storms...max temp values will
likely stay in the 70s for today.

The front slips further south on Monday. The clouds and shower
risk will also be further south. Max temperature values may
struggle to top 80 degrees along the Interstate 94 corridor...with
most locations in the CWA to see highs in the 70s.


- Another round of storms for Tuesday

Guidance shows a mid level wave tracking through the Great Lakes
region on Tuesday. The combination of favorable 0 to 6 km Bulk
Shear Magnitude and deeper instability supports a risk for
organized convection. We will increase the POPs then and highlight
the risk in the HWO. Models are in relative agreement on this

newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

We got pounded with rain!

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

I didn’t get a drop of rain today. Nothing.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Same here. Watches and warnings all around but not a drop.

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Pathetic…

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

And…no rain…maybe ever? Drought, on drought, on drought.

Jim in Cooper Twp., Kazoo Co.
Jim in Cooper Twp., Kazoo Co.

I watched several YouTube winter forecasts this A.M. and the consensus seems to be a La Nina winter with lots of cold and snow for the Great Lakes.

Slim

Yesterday Barry asked as to how this year compares to past years in the number of days at or above 80. We still have almost two more months when it could reach 80 but here is where we stand as of September 11, 2021. For days with highs of 90 or above in the last 120 years GR averaged 12 per year this year we have had 7. For days of highs of 88 or above GR averages 20 this year so far we have had 18 for days of 85 or better the 120 average is 36 so far… Read more »

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Thanks Slim. With the way the outlooks are trending we are going to end up adding a bunch more days to those totals. I usually love September because of the lower dew points and drier air, but once again the dew point is approaching 70 today.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

The last rainfall here was now about a month ago with the big storms that knocked out power everywhere. A few drips here and there, but barely enough to even get the ground wet. If those maps above are anywhere near accurate looks like the AC will be staying on for a while. Just hope we don’t get a repeat of September 2017.

Slim

I have posted the temperature information you asked about above. As for rain fall officially at Grand Rapids since August 12th there has only been 0.48″ of rain fall at Holland there has been 0.60″ of rain fall.
Slim