Michigan Wx Michigan Wx

Scarcity of Tornadoes

Posted on by MichaelV (Otsego)

 

The past few weeks have had our storm chasers twiddling their thumbs at home watching blank radars due to high pressure ridges across the U.S. and the jet across the northern CONUS – nothing out there to pull up the gulf moisture and destabilize the air to create a storm.  How frustrating…..  Meteorologists and enthusiasts haven’t much to track or talk about – on TV the METS smile and talk about the nice weather when they are scowling inside wishing for a cumulonimbus to bloom so they have something to look at in the clear blue skies with hopes it may produce rain or even a few flashes of lightning.  No cows will be flying through the air (Twister is one of my favorite movies).

For only the second time on record, the two most active months for tornadoes of May and June have passed without claiming any lives in the United States.

The only other time we escaped those two months without a tornado death was in 2005. Halfway through the year, tornadoes have killed three people in the U.S., most recently on April 13 in Bossier Parish, Louisiana, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC).  Prior to that, a pair of tornadoes on Feb. 24 in Logan County, Kentucky, and Clay County, Arkansas, each resulted in one death. Those two twisters ended a record streak of 283 days without a tornado-related death in the U.S.
At the current pace, 2018 could finish as the least-deadly year for tornadoes in official records dating to 1950. The year with the fewest number of tornado deaths in the official National Weather Service database was 1986, when 15 fatalities were reported.In an average year, based on 30 years of data from 1987 to 2016, 69 people are killed by tornadoes in the U.S., according to the NWS.2017 and 2016 were both well below that average, with 35 and 18 Americans, respectively, killed by twisters. In fact, the last year with an average or above-average number of tornado-related deaths was 2012, with 69 fatalities.

This year’s lack of tornado deaths coincides with the least active year for twisters in more than 13 years. A preliminary 571 tornado reports had been tallied by the NWS and SPC through June 27; an average year would have 1,004 reported tornadoes by that date.

An unfavorable jet stream position kept twisters away from Oklahoma until early May. When storm systems finally arrived, they didn’t produce many tornadoes.The jet stream did, however, produce tornadoes in the northern Rockies and High Plains, including Idaho, Wyoming and North Dakota.The more northerly jet stream sent storm systems on a track around the U.S.-Canada border or through the Midwest for much of the spring.

That means it was far more difficult for storm systems to tap into the Gulf of Mexico moisture and southern heat. Those two ingredients, in addition to the wind shear – changing wind speed and direction with height, that the jet stream provides – are most favorable for tornadogenesis when they overlap.  (info from the Weather Channel & NWS).

This is the latest drought map from the National Drought Mitigation Center about half of the state now has abnormally dry conditions.  We join a large area of the U.S. where drought or dry conditions prevail.

This morning there are a few showers mainly on the east side of the state.  We have an Air Quality Alert in place for Van Buren, Allegan, Ottawa, Kent, Berrien, Cass and Muskegon counties until 10pm.

Some much needed rains will move across Lower Michigan over the weekend as low pressure and a weak cold front combines with moist air streaming in. The rain should be more widespread on Monday as a stronger low pressure center tracks through the central Great Lakes.  Dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to near 70 with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

 

Category: Michigan Weather Forecast

12 thoughts on “Scarcity of Tornadoes”

  1. “TWISTER” is one of my favorites too. I hear this might be one of the last really hot weekends for the summer. I heard that on WOOD8. It seems a little early to call that one. LOL!!

  3. Day number 13 of hitting 90. Amazing, this summer has been hotter than last year already. Bring on more to add to the tally !!!

    1. We are on pace for the ridiculous Summer of 1988 when we had 30 some 90 degree days.

  6. It now looks like the chances of widespread rain fall this weekend diminished.

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    1224 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

    LATEST UPDATE…
    UPDATE/SYNOPSIS

    SYNOPSIS

    ISSUED AT 1224 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

    IT WOULD SEEM THE CHANCE FOR A LARGE SCALE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
    ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS HAS DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY.
    THAT BEING SO, IT WOULD INCREASE THE IMPACTS OF A DEVELOPING
    DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID INTO MONDAY THEN
    NOT AS WARM AND LESS HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

    EXPECT MOSTLY HOT AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY WEATHER TODAY,
    THERE IS THE RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
    SECTIONS. TONIGHT EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY NORTH OF A
    LINE FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO ALMA. THAT IS IN RESPONSE TO A SLOW
    MOVING COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY BETWEEN 65 TO 70. THE
    FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF I-94 DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO,
    WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THE GREATEST CHANCE IS
    OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WITH THE FRONT STALLED SOUTH
    OF I-94 EXPECT THE RISK OF STORMS WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF
    I-94. ON MONDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AND THAT
    WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AT THIS POINT THE STORMS
    LOOK LIKE THEY WOULD ONLY BE SCATTED AT BEST AND MOSTLY EAST OF
    US-131.
    Slim

  7. Happy last Friday the 13th of 2018 and it’s National French Fry day!!! LOL!!!
    We picked some blueberries Wednesday morning because I knew it would be too hot towards the end on the week!
    While I am not a fan of severe weather we sure could use some rain!!! Hopefully this weekend!
    Have a GREAT weekend!!!

  8. Perfect weather coming up! And still no big cold days for 6 weeks! WOOD has 83-92 the next 8 days.

  9. I thought I had read that a baby was killed by a tornado in North Dakota a few days back?

    The Ring of Fire has certainly held the tornadoes at bay.

    We received a few sprinkles this morning, but nothing measurable.

  10. Yesterday there was a discussion between my self and Mookie as the the last date that Grand Rapids had a negative departure of more then 3° at Grand Rapids. Mookie The date in question is June 22, 2018 to get a clarification on this I wrote to the NWS office in Grand Rapids. Here is a copy of that email.

    I write on a local weather blog and have found a slight difference in the departure from average for the date of June 22, 2018. On the Preliminary Monthly Climate Data (CF6) data and the daily summery for June 22, 2018 it shows a departure of -3°. I know that this is a preliminary number and subject to change and is rounded off. But on the Climatological Data for Grand Rapids, MI (ThreadEx) page the departure for June 22 is -3.8° So my question is what is the correct departure for June 22, 2018 is it -3° or -3.8°
    Thanks
    If I get a reply I will let you know what the reply is.
    Slim

  11. The lack of tornadoes is a good thing. Also here in Grand Rapids we have yet to have a thunderstorm this month and only had 4 days with thunder last month. With 0.02″ of rain last night the string of rain free days at Grand Rapids has ended at 11. But it is still very dry as going back to June 28th Grand Rapids has only had 0.14″ of rain and since June 10th only 0.98″ has fallen.
    Slim

Comments are closed.