We reached 73.2° yesterday with mostly sunny skies. Our low at 5:30 this morning is 51.8° with clouds overhead. We have rain moving into Muskegon and I see from my radar (Radarscope) there is some lightning embedded. There are showers and storms across the lake from Janesville Wisconsin down to Chicago. Still waiting to see if there is more development to come.
The showers and storms may become fairly widespread towards daybreak today and at least continue through the morning in SW Michigan. Locally heavy rainfall over an inch is possible in spots where training may set up. Severe weather is not expected, but a few rumbles of thunder are.
-- Scattered showers and storms today -- An EML plume is established over the region this morning, featuring 700-500 mb lapse rates modeled around 7.5 to 8 degrees C/km, and 8.9 C/km observed in the 00Z KGRB sounding between 750-550 mb. This will provide instability for moist air advecting in from a 25-30 knot southwesterly low-level jet around 850-800 mb. Scattered convective clusters have already developed in northern Illinois (not well modeled) and near Green Bay (what most members of the HREF have been depicting). It remains to be seen how the northern Illinois convection affects the evolution of storms this morning, but models have been pretty consistent with showing scattered convection developing over Lake Michigan and moving through a good portion of southwest Lower Michigan. The dry air and somewhat steep lapse rates below the clouds down to about 1,000 feet may allow downdrafts to impinge the surface, though the temperature inversion below 1,000 feet would resist this during the morning. Lightning would be the main threat with storms today. HREF ensemble-localized probability-matched mean rainfall the last couple runs has shown a narrow swath of 1 to 1.5 inches of rain possible today if a train of convection sets up, which is generally beneficial (given the dry spring so far) and not likely to cause flooding. -- Pretty warm the next few days and an unsettled wet pattern -- Under an amplifying upper level ridge on Tue into Wed, the warm front and most of the precipitation will be north of us, and there is good ensemble support for temperatures well into the 70s. The trend of temperatures may go down and precipitation may go up on/after Thursday as an upper level low approaches.